Trump leads every democrat but Bullock in MT (Big sky poll)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1181448951599423488?s=20

Detailed Results : http://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Methodology/FINALFINALBSP%204.0%20Aggregate%20Report%20with%20Xtabs.pdf

[Skye]

Wasn't this the pollster that once had Tester leading Rosendale by 23 points?

[Pericles]

If Bullock is really beating Donald Trump then he'd be a very strong Senate candidate and should run for Senate instead.

[President Johnson]

Bullock would make it somewhat competitive, but everyone denying Steve Bullock isn't a strong candidate for the general election is kidding him/herself. Sadly, he has no chance for the nomination, but if he were to the nominee, he would destroy Trump just like Joe Biden will.

[Frenchrepublican]

Wasn't this the pollster that once had Tester leading Rosendale by 23 points?

They did 2 polls, the first one during the summer was really ridiculous, yeah, they had Tester leading by 23, and had Williams defeating Gianforte by a big margin.

But they did a second poll which was far more accurate (Tester+3 and Williams+1).

[Frenchrepublican]

If Bullock is really beating Donald Trump then he'd be a very strong Senate candidate and should run for Senate instead.

The thing is that this poll is using a sample where 50% of the electorate is composed of college or postgraduate educated voters.

[redjohn]

To put this in context, this poll is saying Biden's in MT where Obama was in 2008. Don't think that's totally believable. Nonetheless, there will probably be a decent swing to the left in MT. The worst performer of this poll is Harris, and even then it has her doing ten points better than HRC in 2016.

We can probably expect an at least 6 point to the left in MT in 2020. I don't think it'll be very close, but there's a decent chance it's within 10 points. Like others have said, Bullock should run for Senate. It's not hard to see him winning with a Dem Prez candidate losing by just under 10 points.

[Zaybay]

Getting Montana back into the single-digits would be excellent, though I have my doubts.

[pbrower2a]

Montana looks impressive on the map, but it has only three electoral votes. Ohio isn't so impressive, but it has 18.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They really had to poll MT? What a waste of money

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Montana looks impressive on the map, but it has only three electoral votes. Ohio isn't so impressive, but it has 18.

Montana is projected to gain a seat after the 2020 census, so it's all about building a path to the future.

[Zaybay]

Montana looks impressive on the map, but it has only three electoral votes. Ohio isn't so impressive, but it has 18.

Ohio is super impressive on the map; it connects the Democratic Northeast with the Midwest. It looks odd to have the two areas separated. Same thing with AZ, having that Democratic connection with the West coast and the Rockies looks beautiful.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Trump's best swing state, while TX, AZ, and FL looks winnable by Dems.

I can see Bullock, now being a top Veep, but Beto and Castro will be considered. Abrams, Harris and CCM lacks Foreign policy credentials

[TML]

They really had to poll MT? What a waste of money

Actually, if MT were really close it would suggest a big Democratic win nationwide, so I wouldn't consider this a waste of money. In fact, I believe that (based on historical patterns since the early 1990s) if Democrats are winning the NPV by 5+%, the result in MT will probably be not further right than R+5 or so (in that case, the state would probably be considered "too close to call" at poll closing time on Election Night).

[IceSpear]

If Bullock is really beating Donald Trump then he'd be a very strong Senate candidate and should run for Senate instead.

We can only hope he sees the light. Beto is too far gone it seems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are best to spend money on TX, AK, KY, KS, GA, ME, CO & AZ Senate races. TN, MT and IA-Sen are too favorable to GOP. The Dems can get the Senate majority with a weak Prez Trump. Also, expand it as wave insurance

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A Uncle Joe/Scrappy Steve ticket would dominate in MT and PA.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If Bullock is really beating Donald Trump then he'd be a very strong Senate candidate and should run for Senate instead.

We can only hope he sees the light. Beto is too far gone it seems.

I wouldn’t want Beto to drop down to the Senate race anyway at this point. He’s too big a joke now

[IceSpear]

If Bullock is really beating Donald Trump then he'd be a very strong Senate candidate and should run for Senate instead.

We can only hope he sees the light. Beto is too far gone it seems.

I wouldn’t want Beto to drop down to the Senate race anyway at this point. He’s too big a joke now

Yeah I agree, that statement had a double meaning. lol

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is Trump's best swing state, while TX, AZ, and FL looks winnable by Dems.

I can see Bullock, now being a top Veep, but Beto and Castro will be considered. Abrams, Harris and CCM lacks Foreign policy credentials

MT isnt a swing state lol , its at best a Likely R state(I would say Safe R) at the presidential level. Even at the state level MT is still a Tilt/Lean R state

[OSR stands with Israel]

Yah Bullock running in MT Senate would make that race a tossup even with Warren as the nominee, with Biden it might be even Tilt if not Lean D given how incompetent the MT GOP is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont need MT-Sen, they got more than enough targets to take over Senate.  Bullock is a Veep candidate like Castro and Beto are.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Yah Bullock running in MT Senate would make that race a tossup even with Warren as the nominee, with Biden it might be even Tilt if not Lean D given how incompetent the MT GOP is.

Are MT and VA Republicans the most pathetic in the whole country do you think?

[McGarnagle]

Oh no, this is terrible news

How will we win without Montana?

Might as well not even try. Congratulations on your re-election, Mr. President

[pbrower2a]

Dems are best to spend money on TX, AK, KY, KS, GA, ME, CO & AZ Senate races. TN, MT and IA-Sen are too favorable to GOP. The Dems can get the Senate majority with a weak Prez Trump. Also, expand it as wave insurance

Watch for the consequences of impeachment. Pols who stand with our President even if he is obvioulsy involved in horrible activities by choice are possible swing votes. Joni Ernst, as an extremist in a moderate state, is vulnerable in a bad year for Republicans.

With 40% approval and 55% disapproval (the Q), Trump needs miracles, force, or fraud to get re-elected. He is in worse shape than was Carter at this stage