Edwards leads with 47% (JMC poll)

[Frenchrepublican]

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/LAHP-Executive-Summary-Poll-2a.pdf

Edwards (D) : 47%
Rispone (R) : 22%
Abraham (R) : 19%

A key aspect of the poll :’’Governor Edwards’ challenge is this: this poll uses a sample that is 29% black and 45% Democratic. With the conclusion of in person early voting, we know that the actual early vote of 374,190 (the second highest early vote EVER in Louisiana) was only 25% black/43% Democratic. If this demographic breakdown were to repeat itself on Election Day, the poll results as they stand today would actually show Governor Edwards (with “leaners” included) only leading Rispone 43-23%, with 21% for Abraham, 2% for Dantzler, 2% for Landrieu and Landry combined, and 9% undecided. Furthermore, it’s worth keeping in mind that in the 2015 primary, the demographic composition of the Election Day vote was only marginally more Democratic than the early vote.
And finally, who are the undecideds ? In the last poll, 29% of undecideds (“leaners” included) are African- American and 21% are Republican. Now only 14% are African-American while 55% are Republican. In other words, Governor Edwards has come close to hitting his ceiling, given his existing patterns of support.’’

[UncleSam]

It’s appearing a bit less likely Edwards will win this outright. He should still be the favorite in the runoff against Rispone, though.

[Politician]

The thing is, high GOP turnout in Early Voting doesn't mean they'll replicate that on Election Day.

[Frenchrepublican]

The thing is, high GOP turnout in Early Voting doesn't mean they'll replicate that on Election Day.

I wouldn’t be so certain

Furthermore, it’s worth keeping in mind that in the 2015 primary, the demographic composition of the Election Day vote was only marginally more Democratic than the early vote.

[Frenchrepublican]

It’s appearing a bit less likely Edwards will win this outright. He should still be the favorite in the runoff against Rispone, though.

Yeah, it would be a upset if Edwards were to win outright, as of now I think he will win around 45% of the vote in the jungle primary. Concerning, the runoff I believe it will be far more competitive than what many people had imagined.

[Xing]

I'll stick to my prediction that it's pretty much a Toss-Up whether this goes to a run-off or not, and that Edwards would be favored (but not guaranteed to win) in a run-off. I expect at least some Republicans are going for Edwards (if not, certain talking points will take a pretty big hit...)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     JBE has too much cross-aisle appeal. He's the right Democrat for Louisiana, and that means a lot.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

overdid it on the undecideds, but taking that out...

#Gold Standard