Twitter thread on Louisiana early voting

[Adam Griffin]

Especially in a state like LA, racial numbers matter much more than partisan numbers. You have tons of Dixiecrats who have died over the past four years (as well as those who've simply updated their affiliations). JBE won by 12 in 2015: the shifts here in EV by race (if indicative of the final result, which is unlikely) would still point to an 8-point win.

Also, perfectly poignant to note that the EV as of now (43% D) more or less matches the current share of RVs who are D (42%). In 2015 it was 51% and 46% respectively, but again, LA's voter rolls today look much more like the actual voting habits of people in-state than they did even just 4 years ago (when the registration stats were unrealistically Democratic-friendly - which to be fair, they still are in most contests).

More people are voting early as well, which obviously means any Democratic overperformance in EV is going to be minimized (but honestly better overall, as it doesn't set unrealistic expectations when Democrats overperform massively in EV and then get slaughtered in ED vote).

[Adam Griffin]

Every cycle in most states see higher EV turnout than the last, because more people are choosing to vote early. It's increasingly well-known and easy to do.

Of course an early electorate is going to more closely resemble the overall electorate over time when more and more people are choosing to vote early rather than on ED. This isn't 2008 anymore; most people are now choosing to vote early. If there's insane enthusiasm on one side or another, then you might be able to (at least temporarily) get a massive departure from the final figures in EV, but otherwise, the gap between ED & EV support for each party is going to continue to narrow and narrow. Hell, we've even see examples across the country recently (especially in '18) where the EV is more GOP than the ED vote.

There's just no way (especially in a state like LA) where you can see the raw vote triple compared to 4 years prior and expect Democrats to be doing as good or better in that voter pool - but it also means the GOP cannot do as good or better among Election Day voters. A large part of this (besides the death of Dixiecrats etc) is simply voters changing when they vote rather than how they vote.