Twitter thread on Louisiana early voting

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1179696083896799232

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1179696085201281024

https://mobile.twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1179696086333702144

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, I saw them this morning. Pretty concerning for JBE.

LA Gov 2019 is looking more and more like FL Gov 2018.

[MT Treasurer]

You’d think people would have learned by now not to read too much into early voting numbers (especially in a state like LA), but apparently not.

I’m old enough to remember the "Landrieu is going to lose worse than Blanche Lincoln" takes because the early vote was supposedly pointing to such a dramatic loss.

[Politician]

You’d think people would have learned by now not to read too much into early voting numbers (especially in a state like LA), but apparently not.

[Frenchrepublican]

You’d think people would have learned by now not to read too much into early voting numbers (especially in a state like LA), but apparently not.

I’m old enough to remember the "Landrieu is going to lose worse than Blanche Lincoln" takes because the early vote was supposedly pointing to such a dramatic loss.

I’m old enough to remember the dudes who claimed that Gillum would win because of polls while early voting numbers showing a concerning picture for him

[Frenchrepublican]

You’d think people would have learned by now not to read too much into early voting numbers (especially in a state like LA), but apparently not.

I’m old enough to remember the "Landrieu is going to lose worse than Blanche Lincoln" takes because the early vote was supposedly pointing to such a dramatic loss.

By the way registered democrats were largely out voting republican ones in 2014.
https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2014_1104_StatewideStats.pdf

[IceSpear]

Some of this is probably due to Dixiecrats dying/switching parties over the past 4 years, but it's pretty hard to deny from these numbers that impeachment is revving up the GOP base.

[Storr]

Dems in disarray.

[libertpaulian]

Some of this is probably due to Dixiecrats dying/switching parties over the past 4 years, but it's pretty hard to deny from these numbers that impeachment is revving up the GOP base.

Imagine Beshear in KY.

[IceSpear]

Some of this is probably due to Dixiecrats dying/switching parties over the past 4 years, but it's pretty hard to deny from these numbers that impeachment is revving up the GOP base.

Imagine Beshear in KY.

Meh, he never had a chance to begin with, and him losing by an even bigger margin than he otherwise would have would just make me look even more prescient, so I'm not too concerned about that. I'm far more concerned about this race.

[MT Treasurer]

What else do we know? The early voters in the Louisiana runoff have been vastly more Republican-leaning than early voters in last month’s election. And while whites were only 65 percent of early voters in November, they have been 70 percent for the runoff. Registered Republicans were only 34 percent of early voters in November, but they’ve been 39 percent of early voters for the runoff.

If this change in voter makeup holds on Saturday, it’s obviously very bad news for Landrieu. Assuming she wins the same percentage of white voters as Democratic candidates did in November, she’ll lose the runoff by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent, or about what the model forecasts.

A defeat that large would be the largest for an incumbent this year, topping Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s 17-point loss. It would come close to Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln’s 21-point loss in 2010, which ranks as the eighth-largest ever, as well as the largest loss for an incumbent since William Hathaway of Maine in 1978.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-forecast-landrieu-headed-toward-historic-defeat-in-louisiana-runoff/

Actual results:

Jungle primary: Landrieu 42.08%
Runoff: 44.07%

It’s almost like Republicans are gaining strength in voter registration in a state with tons of Dixiecrats, but underestimate JBE's crossover appeal at your own peril.

[Frenchrepublican]

What else do we know? The early voters in the Louisiana runoff have been vastly more Republican-leaning than early voters in last month’s election. And while whites were only 65 percent of early voters in November, they have been 70 percent for the runoff. Registered Republicans were only 34 percent of early voters in November, but they’ve been 39 percent of early voters for the runoff.

If this change in voter makeup holds on Saturday, it’s obviously very bad news for Landrieu. Assuming she wins the same percentage of white voters as Democratic candidates did in November, she’ll lose the runoff by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent, or about what the model forecasts.

A defeat that large would be the largest for an incumbent this year, topping Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s 17-point loss. It would come close to Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln’s 21-point loss in 2010, which ranks as the eighth-largest ever, as well as the largest loss for an incumbent since William Hathaway of Maine in 1978.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-forecast-landrieu-headed-toward-historic-defeat-in-louisiana-runoff/

Actual results:

Jungle primary: Landrieu 42.08%
Runoff: 44.07%

It’s almost like Republicans are gaining strength in voter registration in a state with tons of Dixiecrats, but underestimate JBE's crossover appeal at your own peril.

And you point is ? I’m not predicting that JBE will lose 40/60.

But yeah, early voting numbers can be interesting, you have just to compare apples with apples.

In 2008 early voting was 168k D and 84k R, Landrieu won while in 2014 early voting was 114k D and 90k R, Landrieu lost.

Early voting numbers indicated that Landrieu would lose and she lost.

[MT Treasurer]

^Early voting numbers indicated that Landrieu was headed for a much bigger defeat than 44/56, that’s my point.

Also, I’d replace apples with cherries in your post.

[Frenchrepublican]

^Early voting numbers indicated that Landrieu was headed for a much bigger defeat than 44/56, that’s my point.

Also, I’d replace apples with cherries in your post.

Early voting numbers pointed to a big defeat for Landrieu, and she lost by 12, now I agree that Enten was over-extrapolating when he predicted that Landrieu would lose 40/60.
Early voting numbers give us a tendency but they won’t give us the final results, of course.

[Politician]

I should also point out that LA Democrats always do better in the runoff than in the primary.

[KaiserDave]

I'm not going to lose my mind over early voting anymore. Wait for the actual results instead of losing your heads over this so soon.

[Frenchrepublican]

I should also point out that LA Democrats always do better in the runoff than in the primary.

Not really. That was true in 2015 because many conservative voters who voted R in the jungle primary either sat out in the runoff or even voted for Edwards, but in 2014 the electorate was not more D friendly in the runoff than in the primary (43.4% D / 54.7% R in the first round then 44.1% D / 55.9% R in the runoff).
If the Gov election ends up in a runoff I expect a very competitive race and I don’t expect that much drop off.

[Politician]

I should also point out that LA Democrats always do better in the runoff than in the primary.

Not really. That was true in 2015 because many conservative voters who voted R in the jungle primary either sat out in the runoff or even voted for Edwards, but in 2014 the electorate was not more D friendly in the runoff than in the primary (43.4% D / 54.7% R in the first round then 44.1% / 55.9% R un the runoff).
If the Gov election ends up in a runoff I expect a very competitive race and I don’t expect that much drop off.

And Landrieu did better despite the electorate being more Republican. Thanks for proving my point.

[Frenchrepublican]

I should also point out that LA Democrats always do better in the runoff than in the primary.

Not really. That was true in 2015 because many conservative voters who voted R in the jungle primary either sat out in the runoff or even voted for Edwards, but in 2014 the electorate was not more D friendly in the runoff than in the primary (43.4% D / 54.7% R in the first round then 44.1% / 55.9% R un the runoff).
If the Gov election ends up in a runoff I expect a very competitive race and I don’t expect that much drop off.

And Landrieu did better despite the electorate being more Republican. Thanks for proving my point.

Not really.

Combined share of D candidates (jungle primary) : 43.43%
Combined share of R candidates (jungle primary) : 54.73%

D share (runoff) : 44.07%
R share (runoff) : 55.93% 

[Calthrina950]

At the rate things are going, Democrats could lose all three gubernatorial races. Polarization could very well drag Edwards into the same abyss that Hood and Beshear will soon be cast into.

[Frenchrepublican]

At the rate things are going, Democrats could lose all three gubernatorial races. Polarization could very well drag Edwards into the same abyss that Hood and Beshear will soon be cast into.

Yea, it would be like Christmas

[ElectionsGuy]

It looks to me like its a combination of former D's flipping R catching up to itself and statistical noise. That's not to say the Edwards camp shouldn't be concerned, because they should.

[Xing]

It's potentially concerning for Democrats, but Nevada is really the only state where early vote is consistently predicative of the eventual results. Edwards should be mindful of the early vote, but it's too early to call the race for Rispone.

[Adam Griffin]

Especially in a state like LA, racial numbers matter much more than partisan numbers. You have tons of Dixiecrats who have died over the past four years (as well as those who've simply updated their affiliations). JBE won by 12 in 2015: the shifts here in EV by race (if indicative of the final result, which is unlikely) would still point to an 8-point win.

Also, perfectly poignant to note that the EV as of now (43% D) more or less matches the current share of RVs who are D (42%). In 2015 it was 51% and 46% respectively, but again, LA's voter rolls today look much more like the actual voting habits of people in-state than they did even just 4 years ago (when the registration stats were unrealistically Democratic-friendly - which to be fair, they still are in most contests).

More people are voting early as well, which obviously means any Democratic overperformance in EV is going to be minimized (but honestly better overall, as it doesn't set unrealistic expectations when Democrats overperform massively in EV and then get slaughtered in ED vote).

[Frenchrepublican]

Especially in a state like LA, racial numbers matter much more than partisan numbers. You have tons of Dixiecrats who have died over the past four years (as well as those who've simply updated their affiliations). JBE won by 12 in 2015: the shifts here in EV by race (if indicative of the final result, which is unlikely) would still point to an 8-point win.

Also, perfectly poignant to note that the EV as of now (43% D) more or less matches the current share of RVs who are D (42%). In 2015 it was 51% and 46% respectively, but again, LA's voter rolls today look much more like the actual voting habits of people in-state than they did even just 4 years ago (when the registration stats were unrealistically Democratic-friendly - which to be fair, they still are in most contests).

More people are voting early as well, which obviously means any Democratic overperformance in EV is going to be minimized (but honestly better overall, as it doesn't set unrealistic expectations when Democrats overperform massively in EV and then get slaughtered in ED vote).

Four years ago, voting registration numbers were 46% D and 28% R ; while they’re now 42% D and 31% R, so even if yeah, some Dixiecrats have died since 2015, the fact that registered democrats are nearly outvoted is not a good sign for them. By the way it’s unlikely that Edwards will do as well than in 2015 with republican registered voters, so these numbers should really worry him.