What else do we know? The early voters in the Louisiana runoff have been vastly more Republican-leaning than early voters in last month’s election. And while whites were only 65 percent of early voters in November, they have been 70 percent for the runoff. Registered Republicans were only 34 percent of early voters in November, but they’ve been 39 percent of early voters for the runoff.
If this change in voter makeup holds on Saturday, it’s obviously very bad news for Landrieu. Assuming she wins the same percentage of white voters as Democratic candidates did in November, she’ll lose the runoff by roughly 60 percent to 40 percent, or about what the model forecasts.
A defeat that large would be the largest for an incumbent this year, topping Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor’s 17-point loss. It would come close to Arkansas’s Blanche Lincoln’s 21-point loss in 2010, which ranks as the eighth-largest ever, as well as the largest loss for an incumbent since William Hathaway of Maine in 1978.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-forecast-landrieu-headed-toward-historic-defeat-in-louisiana-runoff/Actual results:
Jungle primary: Landrieu 42.08%
Runoff: 44.07%
It’s almost like Republicans are gaining strength in voter registration in a state with tons of Dixiecrats, but underestimate JBE's crossover appeal at your own peril.
