Could this happen in the NY gubernatorial election, where two strong liberal candidates split the liberal vote, and a conservative squeaks through?
A strong liberal Democrat, Spitzer 33%
A strong liberal Republican, Weld 33%
A strong Conservative Party candidate 34%
Just speculating.
Any comments?
Extremely unlikely. There is just no reason for a run-of-the-mill Dem voter to choose Weld over Spitzer. Weld has against him a) the Republican designation (Democrats have been waiting for 12 years to get the governorship back - why would they choose to loose it) and b) the simple fact that he is not any stronger candidate than Spitzer: Spitzer is better known, reasonably popular, experienced, established winner in state-wide races (he defeated a Republican incumbent 8 years ago and has been reelected), well-established as a front-runner, etc., while Weld is less known, only recently back in the state and with a plausible linkage to a management disaster (however unfair). In addition, I don't think you would have much more than 25% of NYState voters who'd choose a Conservative over a liberal Republican like Weld. Short of Spitzer eating babies alive on TV in prime-time the night before election, I can't see much that would make the Dems loose this election.
