Sullivan is definitely favored, but this and TX/KS/MT are the Lean/Likely R races where I think there’s at least some "upset" potential.
TX is different from the others-in most scenarios it is closer and the upset would be caused by a change in the state's partisanship. In KS, MT, and AK there is probably a wider range of possible outcomes and candidate quality would be the cause of any upset. If the election were today TX would be Likely R while the others would be Safe R but projecting ahead all are probably Likely R (maybe TX is Lean R, it's on the edge of Likely and Lean imo).
