Impact of impeachment on the 2019 gubernatorial races

[IceSpear]

Polls so far show impeachment as split roughly 50/50, similar to the Kavanaugh circus from last year, which most Dems are taking as vindication that the issue will not hurt them politically. But just like they didn't take into account the fact that they needed to win Senate races in ruby red states where their position was extremely unpopular, the same thing seems to be happening this year with these gubernatorial races in blood red states where Trump is popular and impeachment is deeply unpopular.

Beshear never had a chance to begin with, but I think it could end up increasing Bevin's victory margin. The Racist KY Hicks are absolutely incensed by this. Trump and his acolyte Bevin will whip them into a frenzy and deliver Beshear a thrashing he won't soon forget.

Hood and JBE could definitely lose crossover support as well, which is necessary to win in states like MS or LA, though I'm not sure if it'll be enough to sink the latter.

Thoughts?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The important question is how this fares among the swing voters in Elliott County

[IceSpear]

The important question is how this fares among the swing voters in Elliott County

imo they support impeachment imo. They did vote for John Kerry after all!

[Xing]

I don't think this will influence gubernatorial races nearly as much as it would influence Senate races in those states. It might slightly increase the margin of victory for Bevin and Reeves (who would've won anyway), and could make the difference between a run-off and no run-off in Louisiana, but since Edwards seems to be running quite a bit ahead of the combined Rispone/Abraham vote, I don't think impeachment is going to make enough of a difference to sink Edwards.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

It could doom Hood (if he wasn’t already doomed). Beshear is already doomed just from running in Kentucky. JBE might have issues if Trump has a “woe is me” rally down there to rally the racists

On the bright side though it pretty much guarantees the Dems the VA legislature. I’d rather have a trifecta in Virginia than a powerless Governor in KY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear has been leading in all the polls except an Emerson poll. There are users and on www.electionprojection.com that are still predicting a Beshear victory. There is a GOP legislature in KY, but the legislature overrode a BEVIN'S veto on more school funding.  The legislature agrees with Beshear on funding schools

[pppolitics]

There is no impact simply because governors have no say in the impeachment or removal of presidents.

I expect most of them to stay silent on the issue.

[ElectionsGuy]

This could hurt the Democrats marginally, especially if they hold the vote in the latter half of October.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Beshear is gonna win

[IceSpear]

There is no impact simply because governors have no say in the impeachment or removal of presidents.

I expect most of them to stay silent on the issue.

They'll probably try to stay silent on the issue, but will the media and their opponents let them? All politics is national these days. I expect all the GOP candidates to hammer this home until the very end. I'd certainly consider it a huge gift if I was one of them. Bevin was running as a pro-Trump one trick pony even before this, so I imagine that strategy will be taken into overdrive now.

It could also have the unintended consequence of both firing up the GOP base, making them more likely to vote AND less likely to cross over and vote for a Democrat. Same for the Democratic base, but that's going to be far more useful in Virginia than a place like Kentucky, lol.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY is a state, that has elected statewide Dems. The GOP dominates the legislature, but state offices; Conway, Grimes, Beshear Sr all have been elected in GOP years. We should wait til another poll come out

[pppolitics]

There is no impact simply because governors have no say in the impeachment or removal of presidents.

I expect most of them to stay silent on the issue.

They'll probably try to stay silent on the issue, but will the media and their opponents let them? All politics is national these days. I expect all the GOP candidates to hammer this home until the very end. I'd certainly consider it a huge gift if I was one of them. Bevin was running as a pro-Trump one trick pony even before this, so I imagine that strategy will be taken into overdrive now.

It could also have the unintended consequence of both firing up the GOP base, making them more likely to vote AND less likely to cross over and vote for a Democrat. Same for the Democratic base, but that's going to be far more useful in Virginia than a place like Kentucky, lol.

Of cause they can stay silent on the issue.

eg.

"I am running for governor of [state name]. It is not my job to determine what the president did or did not do. What I am concerned with are [some local matters in the states]."

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Beshear and Edwards will probably still win, but I suppose it could cost Beshear the election (doubt it though)

[Flyersfan232]

Polls so far show impeachment as split roughly 50/50, similar to the Kavanaugh circus from last year, which most Dems are taking as vindication that the issue will not hurt them politically. But just like they didn't take into account the fact that they needed to win Senate races in ruby red states where their position was extremely unpopular, the same thing seems to be happening this year with these gubernatorial races in blood red states where Trump is popular and impeachment is deeply unpopular.

Beshear never had a chance to begin with, but I think it could end up increasing Bevin's victory margin. The Racist KY Hicks are absolutely incensed by this. Trump and his acolyte Bevin will whip them into a frenzy and deliver Beshear a thrashing he won't soon forget.

Hood and JBE could definitely lose crossover support as well, which is necessary to win in states like MS or LA, though I'm not sure if it'll be enough to sink the latter.

Thoughts?

Because calling Kentuckians hicks will help the dem chances in my a lot.

[ON Progressive]

Polls so far show impeachment as split roughly 50/50, similar to the Kavanaugh circus from last year, which most Dems are taking as vindication that the issue will not hurt them politically. But just like they didn't take into account the fact that they needed to win Senate races in ruby red states where their position was extremely unpopular, the same thing seems to be happening this year with these gubernatorial races in blood red states where Trump is popular and impeachment is deeply unpopular.

Beshear never had a chance to begin with, but I think it could end up increasing Bevin's victory margin. The Racist KY Hicks are absolutely incensed by this. Trump and his acolyte Bevin will whip them into a frenzy and deliver Beshear a thrashing he won't soon forget.

Hood and JBE could definitely lose crossover support as well, which is necessary to win in states like MS or LA, though I'm not sure if it'll be enough to sink the latter.

Thoughts?

Because calling Kentuckians hicks will help the dem chances in my a lot.

I’m sure the only reason Kentucky goes Republican is because IceSpear calls Kentucky voters racist hicks on an obscure election forum.

[UncleSam]

It’ll help Republicans avoid a surprise loss in KY imo, and it’ll pass their victory margin in MS. Might force a runoff in LA but JBE is ahead by enough that he should win regardless.

[Gass3268]

I expect it to be a positive in Virginia.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

I don't know what impact impeachment will have on the 2019 gubernatorial races, but if Bevin manages to pull a victory out of his vile despicable ass, I'll blame it all on impeachment and insist my prediction would have been entirely correct had it not been for this rallying Republicans to the polls.   

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

There is no impact simply because governors have no say in the impeachment or removal of presidents.

I expect most of them to stay silent on the issue.

They'll probably try to stay silent on the issue, but will the media and their opponents let them? All politics is national these days. I expect all the GOP candidates to hammer this home until the very end. I'd certainly consider it a huge gift if I was one of them. Bevin was running as a pro-Trump one trick pony even before this, so I imagine that strategy will be taken into overdrive now.

It could also have the unintended consequence of both firing up the GOP base, making them more likely to vote AND less likely to cross over and vote for a Democrat. Same for the Democratic base, but that's going to be far more useful in Virginia than a place like Kentucky, lol.

Of cause they can stay silent on the issue.

eg.

"I am running for governor of [state name]. It is not my job to determine what the president did or did not do. What I am concerned with are [some local matters in the states]."

Headline: [Candidate] Refuses To Condemn Impeachment

[IceSpear]

Polls so far show impeachment as split roughly 50/50, similar to the Kavanaugh circus from last year, which most Dems are taking as vindication that the issue will not hurt them politically. But just like they didn't take into account the fact that they needed to win Senate races in ruby red states where their position was extremely unpopular, the same thing seems to be happening this year with these gubernatorial races in blood red states where Trump is popular and impeachment is deeply unpopular.

Beshear never had a chance to begin with, but I think it could end up increasing Bevin's victory margin. The Racist KY Hicks are absolutely incensed by this. Trump and his acolyte Bevin will whip them into a frenzy and deliver Beshear a thrashing he won't soon forget.

Hood and JBE could definitely lose crossover support as well, which is necessary to win in states like MS or LA, though I'm not sure if it'll be enough to sink the latter.

Thoughts?

Because calling Kentuckians hicks will help the dem chances in my a lot.

I’m sure the only reason Kentucky goes Republican is because IceSpear calls Kentucky voters racist hicks on an obscure election forum.

If I had a nickel for every time an Atlas poster accused me of singlehandedly destroying the Democratic Party in red states/rural areas I'd be an unironic neoliberal.

[junior chįmp]

I dont think it matters one iota

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just because KY is an R state, it votes for McConnell and Rand Paul due to their senority, Rand Paul is a legend in KY and so is McConnell. Bevin, like Fletcher arent incumbents and can lose
 Also, KY has voted for statewide Dems before.

As far as impeachment goes, if Biden is the nominee, he will have to defend his himself and not hide, with the R retirements in House, Dems are favored

[junior chįmp]

As far as impeachment goes, if Biden is the nominee, he will have to defend his himself and not hide, with the R retirements in House, Dems are favored

What about Bear shar?

[morgieb]

It’ll definitely hurt in those three states, though I expected Bevin and Reeves to win anyway and JBE is probably still favoured (though may now be forced into a runoff?)

[Mr. Smith]

Might give Rispone the victory in LA, Bevin and Reeves are probably gonna win anyway.