Weight the possible outcomes for Trump (round 3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seems like a good time for another round of this game.  You get $100 to distribute among the following possible outcomes of Trump’s current term.  You can put as much or as little as you like on any individual outcome, but the total must be $100.

A)   Re-election: Trump wins another term next November.
B)   Lose general election: Trump is the Republican nominee, but loses to the Democratic candidate.
C)   Lose primary: Trump runs in the primary but doesn’t win it.
D)   Doesn’t run again: Trump finishes out his term, but drops his campaign for re-election (the LBJ scenario).
E)   Impeachment/removal: Impeachment by the House (majority required) followed by removal by the Senate (2/3 vote required).
F)   25A: Removed by the VP and Cabinet in accordance with the 25th Amendment.
G)   Resignation.
H)   Death.

My answers:

Re-election: $20.  Could happen if he comes out of the impeachment process in a stronger position.

Lose general election: $49.  The most likely outcome, assuming the Democrats nominate a reasonable good candidate.

Lose primary: $1.  Unlikely in the extreme.

Doesn’t run again: $10.  If Trump survives impeachment but his approvals are in the tank, I could see him doing this rather than face the humiliation of defeat.

Impeachment/removal: $8.  At this point, I think impeachment is almost certain, so this question becomes: what are the odds the Senate will convict?  One chance in 12 seems about right.

25A: $0.  Nope, nada, zilch.

Resignation: $10.  Last time I put this at almost zero, but now I think that if things look bad enough for Trump (e.g. his removal looks likely), he might resign for health reasons or some other pretext.

Death: $2.  I don’t wish death on anyone, but he is an old man with an unhealthy lifestyle, and under a lot of stress that is likely to get worse.

[emailking]

A)   Re-election: $10
B)   Lose general election: $30
C)   Lose primary: $5
D)   Doesn’t run again: $10
E)   Impeachment/removal: $20
F)   25A: $5
G)   Resignation: $10
H)   Death: $10

[Kung Fu Kenny]

Re-election: $25
Lose general election: $40 (never put anything past the American people)
Lose primary: $0
Doesn't run again: $3
Impeachment: $20
Removal: $0
25A: $0
Resignation: $12
Death: $0

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Wait, these are even odds straight across? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Why put any money down on a highly improbably outcome if you're only going to double your money as a result? If we're betting straight odds, I'd put $100 on B, because that's the most likely outcome, and therefore the best value.

Anyway, taking it as you meant it:

A)   Re-election: $25
B)   Lose general election: $60
C)   Lose primary: $0
D)   Doesn’t run again: $5
E)   Impeachment AND removal: $5
F)   25A: $1 (Only because Mike Pence is a sneaky SOB)
G)   Resignation: $3
H)   Death: $1

Note on the death option: Actuarial tables give a 73-year-old man a 3% chance of dying in the next year, but I'm adjusting that downward due to the fact that he has the best medical care on the planet and no known dread diseases.

[pbrower2a]

This seems like a good time for another round of this game.  You get $100 to distribute among the following possible outcomes of Trump’s current term.  You can put as much or as little as you like on any individual outcome, but the total must be $100.

A)   Re-election: Trump wins another term next November.
B)   Lose general election: Trump is the Republican nominee, but loses to the Democratic candidate.
C)   Lose primary: Trump runs in the primary but doesn’t win it.
D)   Doesn’t run again: Trump finishes out his term, but drops his campaign for re-election (the LBJ scenario).
E)   Impeachment/removal: Impeachment by the House (majority required) followed by removal by the Senate (2/3 vote required).
F)   25A: Removed by the VP and Cabinet in accordance with the 25th Amendment.
G)   Resignation.
H)   Death.

My answers:

Re-election: $20.  Could happen if he comes out of the impeachment process in a stronger position.

Lose general election: $49.  The most likely outcome, assuming the Democrats nominate a reasonable good candidate.

Lose primary: $1.  Unlikely in the extreme.

Doesn’t run again: $10.  If Trump survives impeachment but his approvals are in the tank, I could see him doing this rather than face the humiliation of defeat.

Impeachment/removal: $8.  At this point, I think impeachment is almost certain, so this question becomes: what are the odds the Senate will convict?  One chance in 12 seems about right.

25A: $0.  Nope, nada, zilch.

Resignation: $10.  Last time I put this at almost zero, but now I think that if things look bad enough for Trump (e.g. his removal looks likely), he might resign for health reasons or some other pretext.

Death: $2.  I don’t wish death on anyone, but he is an old man with an unhealthy lifestyle, and under a lot of stress that is likely to get worse.

A (re-election): 2% in a fair election. His chance of re-election is now lower than was his 'reasonable' chance of initial election. Many who voted for him consider him an odious mistake, and they will not vote for him again. State Republican parties cannot ensure his victories in any one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin. He is not winning over new voters, which he must do if his first run was close. No state that voted against him is trending for him.

3% in a rigged election. 2016 was not rigged in the sense of people being intimidated or 'instructed'.

B (loss in general election to the Democrat): Before recent revelations this would have been around 85%... I see it down to 50% now. His chance of being President in 2020 at the time of the election have gone down significantly. Polling at this point, as I see it, gives a range of results from a bare win for the Democrat to about 415 electoral votes. His chance of being elected to a second term are about 2% through fair means and his chance of losing with 415 or more electoral votes going for the Democrat is about 2% if we look at whether he is going to be President and run for re-election.  He is not going to win Michigan or Pennsylvania, and his chance of winning Wisconsin is really slight.

The problem is that his chance of remaining President has dropped off significantly in a couple of days, and that is hard to predict.

C (lose primary): This is not happening. The GOP has already committed to his re-election and seems unlikely to let anyone give him a meaningful challenge within the GOP. Ideally the Democrats would be under control so that they would lose this time... but that isn't happening, either.

No incumbent President has lost in a primary challenge since Franklin Pierce in 1852, when America was very different in its Presidential politics.  0%. He has more of a chance of being overthrown in a military coup.

D (chooses to not run again): Sundry pretexts from reasons of health to the good of the country. Either he withdraws from the Presidential race or retracts his nomination. This has gone up to at least 10%.

E Impeachment and removal: 20% if he sticks around for it. The question is whether enough Republicans see him as a detriment to getting re-elected (do not count on principle!)    Democrats must impeach him now, as he has offered a sacrifice of national security for an effort to secure re-election. Cumulative 65%.

F removal for incapacity: this is less judgmental than impeachment and removal, and it could be the official reason for a resignation. Maybe he sees a health report that says that remaining President is just too much for him to take. He is terribly overweight and has other bad health habits, and he shows signs of severe dementia already. To be sure, Ronald Reagan was in bad shape in the latter part of his second term due to dementia, but he was able to play the part by taking a largely-ceremonial role while others did the real work. Trump is not Reagan; he wants his fingers in everything. I would be willing to suggest that his attempt to blackmail the President of Ukraine could be evidence of incapacity. 20%, 85% cumulative.

G resignation: even he understands the consequences for his gross misconduct, including prison. He can formally resign or resign by abandoning the office (as in taking off for Moscow on Air Force One and not returning. He may get some sort of deal that he cannot refuse -- resign and avoid prosecution. 10%.

H death while in office. Stroke or heart attack is unusually likely even at his age (lots of people in their 70s are in better shape than he is). I can imagine him offing himself as his world collapses. 4%.

I military coup (new) -- 1%. We are approaching a Seven Days in May scenario.     

[J. J.]

Re-election: $45.99.  Not a definite, but still likely.  The Democratic Party moved too far to the left and there are enough problems to start to look like the deep state.

Lose general election: $34.  Only if the Democrats get their act together.  Gabbard would have the best shot in the general. 

Lose primary: $0.01.  Unlikely in the extreme.

Doesn’t run again: $2.  Only if he has major health problems.

Impeachment/removal: $1.  The Democrats already overly politicized it.

Resignation: $2.  Health reasons are the most likely

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lose in GE to Biden or Warren, but corruption on both Biden and Trump in GE will be an issue

[pbrower2a]

Re-election: $45.99.  Not a definite, but still likely.  The Democratic Party moved too far to the left and there are enough problems to start to look like the deep state.

Trump may have been unusually lucky in 2016, and may have been the beneficiary of some cheating. He still must win one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin without losing some other state that he won in 2016. Polling has his approvals bounding between 38% and 45%, and we have no idea of how the attempt to blackmail the President of Ukraine will turn out in new polling.   

Lose general election: $34.  Only if the Democrats get their act together.  Gabbard would have the best shot in the general. 

Democrats need to get their act together to avoid a disastrous Presidency following Trump -- in that I concur. Look at all the problems Obama had, and he was above-average as President!

Lose primary: $0.01.  Unlikely in the extreme.

The nomination is apparently Trump's if he wants it.

Doesn’t run again: $2.  Only if he has major health problems.

He has major health problems -- especially of mental health. The problem is that he fails to recognize
such. But senility often entails problems of blood circulation.
 

Impeachment/removal: $1.  The Democrats already overly politicized it.

It has been a high-risk, low-reward proposition until a couple days ago. It now looks like a necessity. Democrats have gone from having the choice to impeach at a time of their choosing if at all to a necessity for the sake of the Constitution and rule of law.   

Resignation: $2.  Health reasons are the most likely

You are missing the "offer that he can't refuse"... and an effective abandonment of the Presidency by leaving for some other country and not returning. State attorneys-general might be part of the deal.

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

Age? We have had other former Presidents living into their eighties and nineties and maintaining high levels of activity. Let's put it this way: Carter has a better chance of reaching One-zero-zero than Trump has of reaching four score.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

Age? We have had other former Presidents living into their eighties and nineties and maintaining high levels of activity. Let's put it this way: Carter has a better chance of reaching One-zero-zero than Trump has of reaching four score.

This is a good reference:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

On average, someone his age has a 3% chance of dying in the next 12 months. However, a lot of causes of death are greatly minimized due to his position. He has agents protecting him 24/7. He has doctors who could attend him constantly should a health problem arise. Simply the fact that he has no known serious problems drops that chance below 3%, even if his obesity does raise it a bit.

[538Electoral]

A, B, H, D, C, G, E, F in that order from most likely to most unlikely.

[pbrower2a]

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

Age? We have had other former Presidents living into their eighties and nineties and maintaining high levels of activity. Let's put it this way: Carter has a better chance of reaching One-zero-zero than Trump has of reaching four score.

This is a good reference:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

On average, someone his age has a 3% chance of dying in the next 12 months. However, a lot of causes of death are greatly minimized due to his position. He has agents protecting him 24/7. He has doctors who could attend him constantly should a health problem arise. Simply the fact that he has no known serious problems drops that chance below 3%, even if his obesity does raise it a bit.

On the average. If one has certain cancers, then the chance of death skyrockets. If one has already had a stroke or heart attack one has a far-greater chance of another, this time fatal, than is so for others. If one has already attempted suicide or has been treated for suicide attempts or talk, then one is at a higher risk for such. Cirrhosis? That is not a good prognosis. Of course none of that applies to Donald Trump.

His obesity (it is real and obvious) is not a good sign. The late Reverend Jerry Falwell shocked people by dying at age 74... but he weighed 400 pounds, which is not good at any age. I see a decline in mental state that suggests circulatory problems that will not take care of themselves. Circulatory problems manifest themselves in fatal strokes and heart attacks.     

[Person Man]

Death: $15, age has always been an issue.

Age? We have had other former Presidents living into their eighties and nineties and maintaining high levels of activity. Let's put it this way: Carter has a better chance of reaching One-zero-zero than Trump has of reaching four score.

This is a good reference:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

On average, someone his age has a 3% chance of dying in the next 12 months. However, a lot of causes of death are greatly minimized due to his position. He has agents protecting him 24/7. He has doctors who could attend him constantly should a health problem arise. Simply the fact that he has no known serious problems drops that chance below 3%, even if his obesity does raise it a bit.

On the average. If one has certain cancers, then the chance of death skyrockets. If one has already had a stroke or heart attack one has a far-greater chance of another, this time fatal, than is so for others. If one has already attempted suicide or has been treated for suicide attempts or talk, then one is at a higher risk for such. Cirrhosis? That is not a good prognosis. Of course none of that applies to Donald Trump.

His obesity (it is real and obvious) is not a good sign. The late Reverend Jerry Falwell shocked people by dying at age 74... but he weighed 400 pounds, which is not good at any age. I see a decline in mental state that suggests circulatory problems that will not take care of themselves. Circulatory problems manifest themselves in fatal strokes and heart attacks.     

You would be surprised at how long you can live as a fat ass nowadays. My mom’s sister’s husband was about 50%-60% overweight as long as I knew him. He died at age 80. My material grandfather died before I was born at age 72 for the same reasons in 1984. Though my uncle was a medic in the navy during Vietnam and my grandfather ran a shipyard during WW2. They had comorbities from it though my uncle had multiple heart attacks starting from when he was 30.

Trump can still easily make 90.

[😥]

A)   Re-election: $17
B)   Lose general election: $50
C)   Lose primary: $1
D)   Doesn’t run again: $4
E)   Impeachment/removal: $19
F)   25A: $1
G)   Resignation: $4
H)   Death: $4

[Ban my account ffs!]

Re-election:  $75
Re-election with an even bigger ec count and even larger pv loss: $25