The University of Mary Washington-VA: Double digit leads for all Democrats

[Gass3268]

Biden 55
Trump 37

Warren 53
Trump 38

Sanders 53
Trump 38

Harris 50
Trump 38

Source

[soundchaser]

Virginia would be a tossup state with Warren, obviously. /s

[Xing]

#SwingStateVA #WarrenBadFitForVA #PartyLikeIts2004

[OneJ]

Bernie would've lost Viriginia in 2016, tho. /s

[Devout Centrist]

Press X to doubt

*checks username*

Of course

[Gracile]

Virginia is essentially Safe D.

[Frenchrepublican]

VA is obviously safe D but the idea that Trump will lose the state by 18 or even 15 is laughable. Republicans have a low ceiling in the state, but they have on the other hand a reasonable floor of 44%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

VA is obviously safe D but the idea that Trump will lose the state by 18 or even 15 is laughable. Normal Republicans have a low ceiling in the state, but they have on the other hand a reasonable floor of 44%.

I think this is true only if you add the word above.

[Gracile]

VA is obviously safe D but the idea that Trump will lose the state by 18 or even 15 is laughable. Republicans have a low ceiling in the state, but they have on the other hand a reasonable floor of 44%.

Republicans dipped below that floor in 2018 (both the Senate election and House PV). Of course it may be different in a presidential electorate, but it should also indicate that Republicans are in no way guaranteed to get at least 44% of the vote.

[Frenchrepublican]

VA is obviously safe D but the idea that Trump will lose the state by 18 or even 15 is laughable. Normal Republicans have a low ceiling in the state, but they have on the other hand a reasonable floor of 44%.

I think this is true only if you add the word above.

Normal = anybody but Minnesota Confederate Corey Stewart

[Xing]

Anyway, this thread is obviously just going to turn into MT Treasurer/IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/xingkerui circle-jerking with each other and making straw men, so best to lock it before then.

It's touching that you're so obsessed with me and the other posters, but do yourself a favor and give it a rest. It's not unreasonable to call Virginia Safe D, even if it ends up being a high single-digit win for Democrats rather than a double-digit win.

[Politician]

Anyway, this thread is obviously just going to turn into MT Treasurer/IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/xingkerui circle-jerking with each other and making straw men, so best to lock it before then.

It's touching that you're so obsessed with me and the other posters, but do yourself a favor and give it a rest. It's not unreasonable to call Virginia Safe D, even if it ends up being a high single-digit win for Democrats rather than a double-digit win.

Um, I literally have Virginia as "Safe D" in my 2020 prediction, but it's annoying to see you jack off like this. If there was a poll showing a Dem up by 8 in OH/IA or by 15+ in ME you'd probably laugh at it and be like "junk!"

[ElectionsGuy]

It's time to stop

You're feuding over how safe or not safe we think certain states are on an internet forum (in response to a poll that's probably garbage anyway), and lumping groups of posters into an opposition "camp" that have different perspectives than yourself. Take a step back and reevaluate what you're doing.

[Gass3268]

Other fun thing in this poll is that Northam’s net approval is back in the double digits. 47-35

[slothdem]

Other fun thing in this poll is that Northam’s net approval is back in the double digits. 47-35

If Northam could run for re-election (and get past the primary, which I think he would) he would win pretty easily.

And yeah, Safe D state is Safe D, although I don't think the margin will be quite that high.

[NeverAgainsSock]

Northam under 50! Trump is also targeting this too. And Appalachians will come out in force. Lean/Likely Trump (unless Tulsi is nominee cuz populism).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Northam under 50! Trump is also targeting this too. And Appalachians will come out in force. Lean/Likely Trump (unless Tulsi is nominee cuz populism).

Trump should be encouraged to spend as much money as possible here.

[The Mikado]

IMO Trump legit could get blown out of the water in VA and lose by double digits. VA is uniquely affected by things like the shutdown earlier this year (most people don't remember government employees going over a month without pay checks...but those employees themselves and their families sure as hell do) and Trump's general hostility towards federal employees. Northern Virginia seems like an area that the sky high Johnson/McMullin vote of 2016 would end up drifting towards Democrats, as the types of upscale professionals who voted that way in those areas then have grown more hostile towards Trump.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trends are Real

[Xing]

Anyway, this thread is obviously just going to turn into MT Treasurer/IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/xingkerui circle-jerking with each other and making straw men, so best to lock it before then.

It's touching that you're so obsessed with me and the other posters, but do yourself a favor and give it a rest. It's not unreasonable to call Virginia Safe D, even if it ends up being a high single-digit win for Democrats rather than a double-digit win.

Um, I literally have Virginia as "Safe D" in my 2020 prediction, but it's annoying to see you jack off like this. If there was a poll showing a Dem up by 8 in OH/IA or by 15+ in ME you'd probably laugh at it and be like "junk!"

Well, yeah, because those results are far less believable than a Democrat winning by double digits in Virginia. If no one was arguing that Virginia was a swing state, then there wouldn't be any need to discuss it or point out how ridiculous it is that some posters think Warren or Sanders would lose Virginia. If posters were arguing that New Jersey was competitive, people would rightfully point out how ridiculous that is. (Yes, before you say anything, I'm aware that New Jersey is more Democratic than Virginia.) If multiple polls showed the Democrats well ahead in Michigan heading up to the election, while I'd be cautious, I wouldn't assume that they were all junk just because 2016. I've admitted and owned up to it when I've been wrong about my predictions in the past, so I have the right to point out when they're right as well.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Anyway, this thread is obviously just going to turn into MT Treasurer/IceSpear/TrendsAreReal/xingkerui circle-jerking with each other and making straw men, so best to lock it before then.

I’m holding off on my circle jerks until Bevin wins after Trump whips up all the racists.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

FREEDOM POLL!
lol j/k

But OTOH...

VA went from neutral in 2008 and 2012 to +3 D in 2016. It could conceivably creep up to +6 D, which means a 10-point win in VA is a 4-point win nationwide. I doubt that, though.

Anyway, this is garbage.

[538Electoral]

This thread is a mess like I thought. I bet everyone knows what side of the VA debate I fall on, But all this bickering needs to stop.

[IceSpear]

Sanders 53
Trump 38

They must have gotten the numbers flipped. I was assured by the pundits and our Atlas Forum scholars that Trump would surge in Northern Virginia if Democrats nominated a SOCIALIST!!!

When are these people ever wrong?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Sanders 53
Trump 38

They must have gotten the numbers flipped. I was assured by the pundits and our Atlas Forum scholars that Trump would surge in Northern Virginia if Democrats nominated a SOCIALIST!!!

When are these people ever wrong?

Mr Computer would short circuit if and when Warren clears 60% in Loudoun County and wins Virginia Beach and Chesterfield County