My 2020 Senate Map (September 2019)

[538Electoral]

GA Special: Likely R

[Pericles]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

[538Electoral]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

[Pericles]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

Ah ok. Gideon has low name recognition in the polls and Collins' approval rating is much worse than it was before, perhaps even net negative. Cornyn also isn't hugely popular, he's a bit like Bill Nelson and he has a 43% approval rating.

[Storr]

GA Special: Likely R

How is Maine Safe R and Arizona not at least a Tossup? I'm not even mentioning North Carolina and Texas.
I'd have GA-not special (lol) at Likely R if I had the special at Likely R, but Safe R isn't that ridiculous even if I disagree with it, due to the state's inelasticity and Perdue's incumbency. There are some others I disagree with (I'd have New Hampshire and Michigan at Likely R, but it's not illogical to have them as Lean D so I don't have any problem with that) but this isn't bad by any means.
In my mind the Senate will come down to NC, Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and Texas (not in any order). I'm going out on a limb, but I feel Texas will vote to the left of the Georgia elections, especially considering the Dem will have to reach 50% + 1 to avoid a runoff. Doug Jones is DOA. I don't think New Hampshire will be particularly close. Michigan won't be a blowout, but D by a fair amount (by maybe 5-ish percent).

Edit: I just saw your comment about not having tossups. That makes your Arizona and North Carolina predictions fine in my mind.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

ME isnt safe R and AZ is a tossup. I think 538 thinks like all Republicans do think, that inpeachment will help Trump.  Thats why he is putting out these R maps

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

In terms of specifics, do you have CO on the same level as NH?  (As in it's just as likely Gardner will win there as the Republican candidate will win in NH?)

I'd say that NH is more lean D and CO is lean to likely D.

[Skye]

Mine:

GA special: Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A poll has Cooper 43/30 approvals and Tillis at 27% approvals, Tillis will lose

[538Electoral]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

In terms of specifics, do you have CO on the same level as NH?  (As in it's just as likely Gardner will win there as the Republican candidate will win in NH?)

I'd say that NH is more lean D and CO is lean to likely D.

I have the Democrat winning in CO by 2-3% and NH by 3-4%. I think CO is more likely to stay on our side than NH flipping simply because Gardner is the incumbent.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

In terms of specifics, do you have CO on the same level as NH?  (As in it's just as likely Gardner will win there as the Republican candidate will win in NH?)

I'd say that NH is more lean D and CO is lean to likely D.

I have the Democrat winning in CO by 2-3% and NH by 3-4%.

You think Trump is going to make up 3-4% of the margin by which he lost CO in 2016?

[538Electoral]

In a scenario where GA is Likely R, and probably most realistic scenarios, AL is Safe R. This is too optimistic for the Republicans imo, I think AZ and NC are tossups, and given GA's trend it is Lean R and ME is either Lean R or Tossup. TX is Likely R.

I don't do toss-ups for my senate maps. I think Tillis and McSally will both win. AL we don't know who the Republican nominee will be yet.I put it as Likely R for a baseline. GA I also put Likely R as a baseline. The only polls out of ME still show Collins ahead by a comfortable margin. Cornyn is pretty popular thus I put TX as Safe R.

In terms of specifics, do you have CO on the same level as NH?  (As in it's just as likely Gardner will win there as the Republican candidate will win in NH?)

I'd say that NH is more lean D and CO is lean to likely D.

I have the Democrat winning in CO by 2-3% and NH by 3-4%.

You think Trump is going to make up 3-4% of the margin by which he lost CO in 2016?

Gardner is an incumbent Republican, So I'm being slightly more generous to him than Republicans in NH. But I can definitely see the argument of NH voting right of CO even though CO has an incumbent Republican.

[Person Man]

The path to a Democratic majority is Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona and either Maine or the Georgia special.

[538Electoral]

The path to a Democratic majority is Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona and either Maine or the Georgia special.

I think AL will go Republican so their best bet may to win both ME and GA-special.

[Pericles]

The path to a Democratic majority is Colorado, North Carolina, Arizona and either Maine or the Georgia special.

I think AL will go Republican so their best bet may to win both ME and GA-special.

If Dems win the presidency (which they probably would in a scenario where they're winning the Senate) they need a net gain of 3 seats so losing AL while gaining CO, AZ, NC and let's say ME would be enough.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Me as of now. I teeter on MI every week, and MT, KS, and AL, are heavily subject to change due to primaries and who may enter, and these are just based on who I think will win the primary, but could easily change. This map will obvs change.

[Frenchrepublican]

[The Arizonan]

It looks almost like a possible presidential election map. Is that what you're aiming for?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Except ME isnt solid R

[Heebie Jeebie]

A lot of you guys are way too bearish on Democrats' chances.  This map is as likely as (maybe more likely than) any other...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

538 and the GOP are only putting these bearish maps, they impeachment will help their chances