2004: joe lieberman/mike easley vs. bush/cheney

[Erc]

Very low Democratic turnout, slightly more flaking to Nader (although not to the extent of 2000)--and, if Rove does his business, high Republican turnout.

Very polarized, with very strong Democrat showings in the Northeast and Republican showings in the South--Easley, although well-respected after the campaign, doesn't make much of an impression--and although North Carolina is closer compared to the surrounding states, Lieberman fails to take it--and the Republicans gain Edwards' senate seat (not surprisingly, after his failed bid for the Presidency--and the Vice-Presidency:  the pick of relative unknown (outside of NC) Easley appeared to be a direct snub in the face of John Edwards, something that will dog both Easley and Edwards for the remainder of the year) and Easley's governorship.

Overall, the PV is pretty close, but the EV isn't.  Lieberman and Easley are nice guys, they have high approval ratings, people seem to think he'd make a good President--but they end up voting for Bush instead.

Bush wins all the states he won in 2004 plus Oregon, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.