Impeachment effects on the 2020 election

[Sir Mohamed]

Political commentators in the media and this forum, as well as people I interact with in person, have voiced different opinions on how a Trump impeachment would affect the 2020 election. My personal opinion is that he deserves to be impeached and removed from office. And not just since the Ukraine story broke, which alone would be enough to justify removal from office. Mr. Trump has also violated campaign finance laws through payments to women and tons of conflicts of interests. Obstruction of justice is another crime he most likely committed. To uphold the rule of law, he deserves to impeached. In the end, the rule of law should be above political calculations. However, if I knew in advance impeachment would make his reelection more likely, I'd be opposed to impeachment for that reason. Dems must make sure Mr. Trump won't last a single day beyond 01/20/2021. If an impeachment, which won't lead to his removal from office anyway because senate GOPers are afraid of him, helps him in 2020, I'd prefer not start impeachment.

But let's be completely honest: The political consequences of an impeachment are hardly forseeable. There is no modern-day precedent we can look to, no first term prez ever got impeached (Andrew Johnson was no candidate for reelection and doomed anyway). Nixon and Clinton were in their second terms, and in Mr. Nixon's case, the GOP turned on him. We won't see this unless Mr. Trump on live TV shots or rapes someone. The lessons from Mr. Clinton's impeachment are not that helpful either. While impeachment was seen as a partisan circus and the GOP didn't do well in the 1998 midterms, some argue it helped them longterm: In 2000, they won the ultimate prize: The White House. In part, because the cloud of scandal was hanging over the outgoing admin. Mr. Clinton's scandals for sure didn't help Dems in 2000. Question is also, whether we can view this as a valid precedent; national politics today is vastly different from 1998/1999.

So, if Dems really start impeachment in the House, what implications would this have on the election? Will it rally the GOP and MAGA base behind Mr. Trump, or will the evidence presented during the trial help to drag Mr. Trump's numbers further down? While Clinton impeachment led to higher numbers for the prez, Trump won't get to 65% approval rating. Actually, there is not much to gain for him. Never before was prez stuck between ~ 37% and ~ 45% for such a long time. I don't think this will change much. Or would impeachment just not affect the election at all, because people's opinions of Trump are, due to polarization, almost set in stone?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Increase their chances for a Blue wave even more. I can see Trump losing Latinos states, and those are the ones in play: AZ, CO, FL, NV, NM and TX

[GeneralMacArthur]

We'll waste weeks rehashing stories that were already played out in the media while the media does #analysis of trivialities, both-sides it, and builds up false hope of actual impeachment.

Then it will pass (with some Democrats voting no) and go to the Senate, where it will fail (with some Democrats voting no).

Trump will declare himself cleared of all wrongdoing.  The media will declare it a great victory for him.  This will hurt Biden because now Trump has been "cleared" of wrongdoing in the Ukraine scandal.

Progressives will of course pretend that Manchin and Sinema singlehandedly kept Trump in office and blame Chuck Schumer for not doing more to bring in Republican impeachment votes.


That said, I think Pelosi's hand will eventually be forced on this, and it might be best to take the L now when there's still a year before the election for the public to forget about it.

[Xing]

The fact is, Trump's base is going to turn out for him regardless of what Democrats do. They might as well show that they're willing to stand up for what they think is right (and the law), to at least show their base that they're not spineless and that the president shouldn't be above the law. What message does it send if Democrats shrug their shoulders and say that it's not worth even trying to hold Trump accountable for his actions since Republicans in the Senate won't.

[Pollster]

Dems will hold the line. Depending on how their internal polls look, some Republicans will flip. A majority of Senators will vote to convict but of course not a supermajority, reinforcing Democrats' rigged system/tyranny of the minority/anti-McConnell message. Those on the furthest left may advocate amending the constitution to reduce the number of Senators needed to convict, which of course would be a textbook example of reactionary politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We know that GOP defenders of Iran Contra wont remove their party's president. McConnell has his wife working for Trump, Elaine Chao. If party members remove their party's president, he wont get his pension; eventhough, officeholders dont need pension.

Trump will face the law once he leaves office. But, Dems doing nothing on impeachment will leave them complicit with Trump

[Orser67]

Impeachment will get through to the general public in a way that regular hearings haven't, and will refocus the 2020 election away from ideas and policies and towards the corruption of the Trump administration. Politically, there certainly is some potential upside in that it could energize the Democratic base, and some potential downside in that it could energize the Republican base. The great unknown are independents and low-information voters who don't strongly approve or disapprove of Trump; impeachment would probably convince some of these voters that Trump is a uniquely corrupt president who needs to removed right away, but it would also probably convince others that Democrats are engaged in a partisan witch hunt. It's not clear what share of voters would fall into the first bucket and what share would fall into the second. It's also not clear what other information would come out during the impeachment process; but keep in mind that some or all of that information might come out anyway, since it's not as if Jerrold Nadler and other House Democrats will simply be twiddling their thumbs in lieu of impeachment.

My main issue with impeachment is that, given his approval ratings, I view Trump as a decided underdog in the 2020 election. Impeachment could very well play into his hands by distracting from his scandals, general ineptitude, and the fact that 75 percent of Americans dislike him on a personal level. He won in 2016 in large part because he was able to convince a large number of Obama voters that he was less objectionable than his opponent, and impeachment (plus relentless attacks on whatever fake or real scandals he can dig up on his opponent) could allow him to reproduce that situation by casting Democrats as extremist, anti-democratic elitists. Trump excels at playing the "whose scandal is bigger" game, and while Democrats shouldn't simply excise his corruption from their campaign, I'd much rather the focus of the 2020 election be on policies and Trump's ineptitude than on Trump's corruption.

[morgankingsley]

If impeachment happens, it might cause turnout to be higher, and in certain states it could lead to a Trump sympathy vote, but in a way I feel like the democrats could advertise this as a failure in our system if they fail to get rid of him and cause voters for them in droves

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is gonna lose WI, MI and PA anyways. Voters in those states support impeachment. Any poll conducted will have Dems winning by 2 or more having the 279 EC wall built in. Emerson poll just reassures this. This wont change from now until the election

Latino, female and black vote, are gonna be at an all time high and most swing state districts are in the sunbelt. The question is, will the Dems create a coalition that can put them in the majority status since 2009, will impeachment help or hinder that.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

We'll waste weeks rehashing stories that were already played out in the media while the media does #analysis of trivialities, both-sides it, and builds up false hope of actual impeachment.

Then it will pass (with some Democrats voting no) and go to the Senate, where it will fail (with some Democrats voting no).

Trump will declare himself cleared of all wrongdoing.  The media will declare it a great victory for him.  This will hurt Biden because now Trump has been "cleared" of wrongdoing in the Ukraine scandal.

Progressives will of course pretend that Manchin and Sinema singlehandedly kept Trump in office and blame Chuck Schumer for not doing more to bring in Republican impeachment votes.


That said, I think Pelosi's hand will eventually be forced on this, and it might be best to take the L now when there's still a year before the election for the public to forget about it.

If the Democratic Party has half a brain (always questionable), the impeachment will be about making the case for Trump's wrongdoing to the public as much or more than to the Senate. If and when the Republican Senators vote to keep a crook in office, that can be used as a rallying cry against them in 2020 and beyond.

As for Mr. Trump claiming exoneration...  liars will lie, no matter whether you confront them with their crimes or not. If he was not impeached, Mr. Trump would spend the time claiming that he was completely innocent, and that the proof was that not even the crooked liberals could find any evidence.

I expect the Senate will not vote to convict... unless it happens that the GOP decides to turn on him because they see their own oxen being gored   (unlikely and probably too optimistic, but possible)- it's not like these people have any actual loyalty, principle, or morals after all. (Although they may be being blackmailed by Russia to support Mr. Trump, I suppose.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hacking the DNC is never okay and Nixon was pardoned for it. Now, we see what happens when you let a crook get aw away with it, in 2016, we have a repeat offender in Trump. The Dems would have had to come to this conclusion, even without Ukraine. A Demoralized base in 2016 is just as problematic as the facing the general electric voters whom disagree with you on impeachment.  Doing nothing will allow a future GoP candidate to hack DnC again

[Heebie Jeebie]

Impeachment will keep the spotlight on Trump's efforts to cheat and steal the 2020 election, and will hopefully limit his ability to do so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

More evidence grows to support Articles of Impeachment, due to federal prosecutor saying Guiliani should be disbarred for what he did during Ukraine blowup.

538 and SN dream of having Trump get reelected over impeachment, blows up in smoke.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't think it changes much. If anything, it may rally Trump's base. We've been expecting impeachment the moment Trump took office. I'm surprised it took almost 3 years for the Democrats to finally try it. Most people have their mind made up on Trump, so I doubt it moves the needle much.

You either hate Trump and are happy with impeachment or you love him and are upset this is happening.

Additionally, impeachment isn't popular with the public. I think people fear a President Pence moreso than Trump. I know I feel that way.

[GP270watch]

 Impeachment will depress part of Trump's base if Democrats can clearly show where he is corrupt and how he has used the office to line his own pockets. We live in highly partisan times but many people at the end of the day won't vote for a clear crook. I've met a lot of white uneducated voters who will parrot to me that Trump doesn't take a salary, Trump-FoxNews-A.M. Radio has messaged this into their brains. If the news can breakthrough that while Trump doesn't take a salary he's getting it all back and much more by self dealing, it will have an effect.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Impeachment will depress part of Trump's base if Democrats can clearly show where he is corrupt and how he has used the office to line his own pockets. We live in highly partisan times but many people at the end of the day won't vote for a clear crook. I've met a lot of white uneducated voters who will parrot to me that Trump doesn't take a salary, Trump-FoxNews-A.M. Radio has messaged this into their brains. If the news can breakthrough that while Trump doesn't take a salary he's getting it all back and much more by self dealing, it will have an effect.

Will it? Or will they blame the "fake news" media? You have much more faith in humanity than I do, friend.

[GP270watch]

Impeachment will depress part of Trump's base if Democrats can clearly show where he is corrupt and how he has used the office to line his own pockets. We live in highly partisan times but many people at the end of the day won't vote for a clear crook. I've met a lot of white uneducated voters who will parrot to me that Trump doesn't take a salary, Trump-FoxNews-A.M. Radio has messaged this into their brains. If the news can breakthrough that while Trump doesn't take a salary he's getting it all back and much more by self dealing, it will have an effect.

Will it? Or will they blame the "fake news" media? You have much more faith in humanity than I do, friend.

 I think there is 30-35% of America that is with Trump through whatever. But there were many white rural and working class voters who believed Trump because of his outsider status. These voters supported his "solutions" to immigration, healthcare, globalization, jobs, and national security. It's one thing to campaign and it's another to govern. If Trump is successfully painted as a guy who is really playing the game for himself and his family, will it matter that they hate the mainstream media or the elites. If Trump is only helping himself and not helping them with the issues they care about, where would be the enthusiasm to support him again?

 

[SInNYC]

Most people already know he is a corrupt grifter. And then there are some Trump fans who think he is a great businessman who is rescuing the American economy. Impeachment doesnt affect either of these groups, but it increases turnout among the Trumpists. I dont think there are enough people who fit neither of the two categories to overwhelm the increased Trumpist turnout.

So, I think impeachment is a bad idea politically speaking, whether or not it is warranted. Now, if he happens to win 2020, impeachment hearings after that are politically good, and I'm sure he will still be committing impeachable offenses. Also, criminal cases after he leaves would likely be warranted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This corroborated evidence is with the whistleblowers complaint, the impeachment  inquiry gave Dems sunpoena power to get it. Schumer said that once, whistleblower testifies, Trump will hear impeachment articles and Dems are at 211