1984 after 2 terms of Carter

[Sir Mohamed]

Assume Jimmy Carter narrowly wins reelection in 1980 over Ronald Reagan. Iran hostages were freed right before election eve. What happens in 1984 if the economy was the same as IRL?

[538Electoral]

Assuming Mondale is the nominee and assuming Carter was a relatively popular president.

Mondale: 315
Reagan: 223

[Sir Mohamed]

Assuming Mondale is the nominee and assuming Carter was a relatively popular president.

Mondale: 315
Reagan: 223

You think Reagan runs again in 1984 after losing 1980?

[538Electoral]

Assuming Mondale is the nominee and assuming Carter was a relatively popular president.

Mondale: 315
Reagan: 223

You think Reagan runs again in 1984 after losing 1980?

I picked Reagan as a baseline.

[Del Tachi]

Carter was pretty incompetent as a President, and that would have continued to to show throughout his second term.  Without a supply-side infusion to end the recession, I doubt the early '80s are very kind to Carter.

George H.W. Bush is the GOP nominee and wins pretty resoundingly.

[Vittorio]

Without a supply-side infusion to end the recession, I doubt the early '80s are very kind to Carter.

Carter was already pursuing supply-side economics as early as 1978.

[President Johnson]

The Republicans would have regained the presidency, most likely with a solid but not too energetic candidate like Bob Dole. Poppy Bush would have been associated with the Reagan loss and kind of old news after four more years in the wilderness. I could see him as secretary of state in a Republican administration, starting in 1985.

✓ Senator Robert J. Dole (R-KS)/Senator Howard Baker (R-TN): 376 EV. (52.64%)
Vice President Walter F. Mondale (D-MN)/Representative Geraldine Ferraro (D-NY): 162 EV. (45.39%)

[morgankingsley]

Mondale wins ten or twelve states, but still loses

[Agonized-Statism]

Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN) / Congresswoman Geraldine Ferraro (D-NY)
Congressman Jack Kemp (R-NY) / Senator Bob Dole (R-KS) ✓

The immediate reaction is that the Republicans narrowly lost a very winnable race because Reagan was too extreme, but Carter is a lame duck and someone inherits Reagan's movement.

[Alben Barkley]

The economic recovery/boom leading up to 1984 still would have happened. That was more the result of Carter’s appointed Fed chair Paul Volcker than anything Reagan did.

Thus Carter would probably be leaving office pretty damn popular, and his successor (be it Mondale or someone else) would at least have a chance. I don’t think it would be a GOP blowout at all. If it is Mondale, it could end up a lot like 1960 or 2000 or 2016 when a popular incumbent is leaving office with a strong economy, but their less charismatic VP/successor narrowly loses. Or it could be like 1988 and he wins pretty comfortably.

[dw93]

Carter's 2nd term would be very bumpy the first two and a half years just like Reagan's first two and a half years were. Thus, a "six year itch" in 1982 under Carter would be pretty nasty for the Democrats, resulting in them losing the Senate, Governorships, and 50/50 chance they'd even lose the House, and I doubt Bob Michel or Howard Baker would overplay their hand and squander their capital the way Gingrich/Dole did after 1994 and the way Boehner/Tea Party did after 2010. So I think even with a good economy the GOP would be favored to win in 1984, even if narrowly.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Assume Jimmy Carter narrowly wins reelection in 1980 over Ronald Reagan. Iran hostages were freed right before election eve. What happens in 1984 if the economy was the same as IRL?

A lot would depend on foreign affairs. 

I was a Democrat in 1980 that abstained for President (voting straight Democratic otherwise).  Nonetheless, I believed that, in the end, Carter would be re-elected because people he was an honest, decent man of integrity who brought peace to Israel.  Let's say that happened.  Who would be the 1984 nominee.  Mondale?  Or Ted Kennedy?

Walter Mondale was a candidate with absolutely no public support.  This is a guy who lost a special election to Norm Coleman in 2002.  No one likes him.  Ted Kennedy, on the other hand, had a magic name.  I have no doubt that had this happened, Ted Kennedy would have been the 1984 nominee.