Are Trump supporters becoming as arrogant as Clinton 2016 voters? (ie Sanders)

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

A few are getting increasingly delusional. The silent majority still stands with Trump, but yes, there has been some erosion. My gut says Trump still wins.

[Pericles]

They were in 2016 too--the problem is when Republicans get arrogant they still vote. When Dems get arrogant, there are actually 'I don't need to vote, my candidate will win regardless' people.

Is there any evidence that this has actually occurred and meaningfully influenced an election result?

[Hindsight was 2020]

A few are getting increasingly delusional. The silent majority still stands with Trump, but yes, there has been some erosion. My gut says Trump still wins.

Trump’s base is many things but it isn’t the majority and it sure as hell isn’t silent

[Hammy]

They were in 2016 too--the problem is when Republicans get arrogant they still vote. When Dems get arrogant, there are actually 'I don't need to vote, my candidate will win regardless' people.

Is there any evidence that this has actually occurred and meaningfully influenced an election result?

There's no 100% evidence since it wasn't polled, but I remember a few people here (and several among the fairly small number of people I knew personally) said such thing. So there were probably more.

[morgankingsley]

I never say guarantee -not anymore- but I do think he has the best chance against her

[SN2903]

I actually think the democrats are more arrogant. I think most Trump voters know it will be a fairly close race since we are so divided. Dems seem convinced 2016 was a fluke and that Trump doesn't have a great chance at reelection. Democrats are underestimating the advantage of incumbency and the fact most Americans are scared by far left proposals. In general most Americans want better health care, better schools and care about the environment but the democratic proposals just do not add up.

[SN2903]

I think dems are starting to have an early celebration, actually.

I'm not, I think that Trump has a 45% chance of winning.

I think it's about 60%

[SN2903]

A few are getting increasingly delusional. The silent majority still stands with Trump, but yes, there has been some erosion. My gut says Trump still wins.

Trump’s base is many things but it isn’t the majority and it sure as hell isn’t silent

A lot of people who voted for Trump who didn't vocalize it.

[Yellowhammer]

I think his odds are about 55-45. Almost all democrats thought Hillary was a shoe-in.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I’m not sure why this is being limited to Warren. More than a few blue avatars seem convinced that Biden is the only candidate that could potentially beat Trump and that everybody else is set to lose in a matchup.

Trump is in a very weak position for an incumbent president, and while he certainly isn’t DOA (although he very well might be in the case of a recession), he’s got an extremely narrow tightrope to walk. He can not afford any hiccups since he’s done nothing to attract new voters and has doubled down on an extremely divisive, base-focused strategy. It’s not particularly difficult to imagine a scenario where he accidentally turns up the heat too much for his own good and succeeds at driving out more of the opposition to the polls than his supporters. He barely won against Hillary Clinton of all people in the three “blue wall” states he needed to clinch a win, he’s not exactly an electoral juggernaut to begin with.

Compared to how vulnerable he is for a sitting president, a lot of his boosters here are quite overconfident. You would expect them to be much more candid about Trump’s rather glaring weaknesses.

[Inmate Trump]

Republicans have a reason to be arrogant, and Democrats have a reason to worry.

Democrats don't have Russia diligently working on their behalf to fix the election.

Democrats aren't keen on election insecurity, and don't have anyone in the Senate actively working to dismantle the security of our elections.

Democrats don't have a candidate who has said they'd do anything to win, nor do any of the Dems have the means to carry out such a threat.

Democrats aren't a cult.

Democratic voters tend to be younger or of a minority block, neither of which turn out in as large numbers as the 65+ or the redneck block, both of which are reliably Republican and WILL be turning out rain or shine.

Democrats were favored in 2016 and still lost, which at least suggests the possibility that Trump underperforms in polling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course, thats why Warren will pick Beto, instead of Buttigieg as her running mate, its a must win, we must win CO and AZ senate and put pressure on Trump in FL and TX

[roxas11]

I honesty think they are far worse than Hillary supporters  
I mean I could see why Hillary supporters did not think trump could win in 2016

1. He was historically unpopular and lot of people thought he was both a sexist and a raciest  
2. Most major polls had Hillary winning
3  President Obama had a high approval rating in 2016
4. Most agreed that Hillary won all three debates

Now compared that To trump supports claiming Warren can not win in 2020 despite these facts

1. Trump's approval rating is stuck at between low 30s or low 40s
2. The economy is starting to slow with many thinking we could be heading into a recession
3. The foreign policy situation is very unstable  ( Iran, China, Brextit and North Korea
4. A trade war with know end in sight
5. Trump has 3 people trying to challenge him for the GOP nomination
6. Historically Independence breaks against the president and his party during an election
7. In 2020 millennial's will be the largest voting block overtaking baby boomers

I can understand why Hillary supporters were cocky but I don't understand at all why Trump suppers are

especially after supporting a guy that most people believed was unelectable
you would think his shocking win in 2016 would have taught them to never underestimate anybody chances of winning the presidency

[MT Treasurer]

Anyone who was here in 2015 and 2016 can tell you that the answer is a resounding no. Lest we forget, "WI is Likely/Safe D lol", "PA is fool's gold for the GOP/trending D", "MO isn’t Safe R because of (R)emington polls", "IA isn’t trending Republican", "Trump needs a landslide to win ME-02", "No Republican can beat Hillary because of demographics", etc. were all common takes on the 2016 board before Trump's election. Now obviously some of Trump's supporters (and several concerned red avatars) are way too confident that he’ll win or that the race is a Tossup no matter what, but they’re still nowhere near as arrogant as Clinton supporters were in 2015/2016. That said, I certainly agree that it’s incredibly tiresome when people here keep harping on "polarization" and how it supposedly ensures that Republicans are competitive/favored in virtually every single election, and Republicans would do well to remember that Trump only barely managed to beat Hillary Clinton of all people and that he hasn’t exactly expanded his coalition since 2016.

[OneJ]

A few are getting increasingly delusional. The silent majority still stands with Trump, but yes, there has been some erosion. My gut says Trump still wins.

If you think there's been some erosion, how can you come to the conclusion that he wins? Trump won three states by less than 1%. Just a little bit of erosion in those few states alone could prevent his victory assuming all other states vote R or D like last election.

[morgankingsley]

Anyone who was here in 2015 and 2016 can tell you that the answer is a resounding no. Lest we forget, "WI is Likely/Safe D lol", "PA is fool's gold for the GOP/trending D", "MO isn’t Safe R because of (R)emington polls", "IA isn’t trending Republican", "Trump needs a landslide to win ME-02", "No Republican can beat Hillary because of demographics", etc. were all common takes on the 2016 board before Trump's election. Now obviously some of Trump's supporters (and several concerned red avatars) are way too confident that he’ll win or that the race is a Tossup no matter what, but they’re still nowhere near as arrogant as Clinton supporters were in 2015/2016. That said, I certainly agree that it’s incredibly tiresome when people here keep harping on "polarization" and how it supposedly ensures that Republicans are competitive/favored in virtually every single election, and Republicans would do well to remember that Trump only barely managed to beat Hillary Clinton of all people and that he hasn’t exactly expanded his coalition since 2016.

This is actually a really good take

[Xing]

Anyone who was here in 2015 and 2016 can tell you that the answer is a resounding no. Lest we forget, "WI is Likely/Safe D lol", "PA is fool's gold for the GOP/trending D", "MO isn’t Safe R because of (R)emington polls", "IA isn’t trending Republican", "Trump needs a landslide to win ME-02", "No Republican can beat Hillary because of demographics", etc. were all common takes on the 2016 board before Trump's election. Now obviously some of Trump's supporters (and several concerned red avatars) are way too confident that he’ll win or that the race is a Tossup no matter what, but they’re still nowhere near as arrogant as Clinton supporters were in 2015/2016. That said, I certainly agree that it’s incredibly tiresome when people here keep harping on "polarization" and how it supposedly ensures that Republicans are competitive/favored in virtually every single election, and Republicans would do well to remember that Trump only barely managed to beat Hillary Clinton of all people and that he hasn’t exactly expanded his coalition since 2016.

Those are fair points, but even though the idea that states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were very likely to go for Clinton turned out to be wrong, there were reasons to believe that they'd be difficult states for Republicans to flip. Obviously Democrats were way too confident in 2016, though especially since many believed that Trump's character would be a much bigger factor than it was, there were reasons for Democrats to feel good about their chances, which likely wouldn't have been as true if Rubio or Kasich had been the Republican nominee.

As for this year, there's not much evidence suggesting that states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are better than Toss-Ups for Trump, since his margins were so small, and Democrats have shown the ability to win those states again (though obviously it's not a given that they will.) There's less data to back up the "Wisconsin is Lean/Likely R", "Arizona/Georgia/Texas were flukes and Trump will do better than in 2016", "Florida is Likely/Safe R" narratives some Trump supporters believe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think both MT Treasurer and Roxas summed up my thoughts pretty well, though I wasn’t here in 2016 to see how cocky Democrats were

[Flyersfan232]

In my general experience both online and off, Trump supporters have always been arrogant (they're trying to emulate their "god emperor"), and yes, many among them seem to believe Trump is coasting to re-election no matter what despite all the evidence suggesting that 2020 isn't going to be a cakewalk for him.

It’s called memes

[IceSpear]

I think both MT Treasurer and Roxas summed up my thoughts pretty well, though I wasn’t here in 2016 to see how cocky Democrats were

It was very, very bad. I was called a concern troll/chicken little numerous times for saying that it was stupid to think Hillary could win states like Utah, South Carolina, and Alaska. In fact, at one point I was mocked for thinking Pennsylvania was more competitive than Alaska, as well as for acknowledging the obvious fact that the Comey letter significantly hurt her chances at winning the election.

This basically sums up how bad it was in 2016. Posts like these were a dime a dozen:

She wasn't going to win Alaska before the email stuff, and she's certainly not winning it now. Same goes for Texas. Please stop this idiocy. Some of you guys are starting to sound as delusional as Dean Chambers and the Reddit Berniebros.

Do you honestly believe that Trump has a better shot in PA than Clinton does in Alaska?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think both MT Treasurer and Roxas summed up my thoughts pretty well, though I wasn’t here in 2016 to see how cocky Democrats were

It was very, very bad. I was called a concern troll/chicken little numerous times for saying that it was stupid to think Hillary could win states like Utah, South Carolina, and Alaska. In fact, at one point I was mocked for thinking Pennsylvania was more competitive than Alaska, as well as for acknowledging the obvious fact that the Comey letter significantly hurt her chances at winning the election.

This basically sums up how bad it was in 2016. Posts like these were a dime a dozen:

She wasn't going to win Alaska before the email stuff, and she's certainly not winning it now. Same goes for Texas. Please stop this idiocy. Some of you guys are starting to sound as delusional as Dean Chambers and the Reddit Berniebros.

Do you honestly believe that Trump has a better shot in PA than Clinton does in Alaska?

Oh yikes, that's bad. Haha.

On the other hand, Republicans now are largely acting like TX, NC, and GA are as Republican as Kentucky and acting like polls are underestimating Trump by like 10%. Which is delusional, but definitely less delusional than Alaska going for Hillary

[Slander and/or Libel]

They're not so much arrogant as they are confident that they'll be able to cheat successfully.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think both MT Treasurer and Roxas summed up my thoughts pretty well, though I wasn’t here in 2016 to see how cocky Democrats were

It was very, very bad. I was called a concern troll/chicken little numerous times for saying that it was stupid to think Hillary could win states like Utah, South Carolina, and Alaska. In fact, at one point I was mocked for thinking Pennsylvania was more competitive than Alaska, as well as for acknowledging the obvious fact that the Comey letter significantly hurt her chances at winning the election.

This basically sums up how bad it was in 2016. Posts like these were a dime a dozen:

She wasn't going to win Alaska before the email stuff, and she's certainly not winning it now. Same goes for Texas. Please stop this idiocy. Some of you guys are starting to sound as delusional as Dean Chambers and the Reddit Berniebros.

Do you honestly believe that Trump has a better shot in PA than Clinton does in Alaska?

AK currently gives 1K a mnth to its residents extra, a socialistic program.  The Blue wave began in 2018 and with 70 M votes, it can happen in 2020, starting with KY-Gov.  There are cracks in the red wall showing KS-Sen, TX-Sen being competitive.  GOP retirements in TX doesnt bold well for GOP.

[538Electoral]

In total, they probably aren't as confident about winning in 2020 as Clinton supporters (including myself) were in late 2016. But many are convinced that polls are biased/wrong, and will continue to believe that Trump is a shoo-in right up until election day even if polls consistently show him losing.

https://twitter.com/huffpost/status/795663593689808896

Maybe something like this is why we have a hard time trusting most polls now.

[538Electoral]

Also before you accuse us Trump supporters of being more arrogant than Clinton supporters/The media, Remember this video?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zerWCVpXTr8

I think I rest my case.