Can the Democrats create a firewall?

[°Leprechaun]

It's way too early to predict accurately, but my guess is option 2. Yes

I'd would have called it a "blue" wall, but that might confuse, because of the atlas color scheme.

[°Leprechaun]

There are three scenarios, I am not predicting these exact maps, but use them to illustrate a Trump win, a bad loss, or a landslide.
A win for the Democrat regardless of how big that win is, may be the most likely scenario. However, if the election is close (and it still could be) Trump could win.

Trump wins

Trump loses badly

Landslide for the Democrats

Which map would you chose, then tweak it, or are these maps way off?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Option 2, but anything can happen

[redjohn]

Depends on your definition of firewall. I don't think either side has a resounding victory in the case of them winning. My guess, though it's extremely far out and none of us really know what we're talking about, is that it comes down to a few close states and nobody has a huge mandate (e.g. winning WI by 5 points, PA by 6 or whatever).

[°Leprechaun]

Depends on your definition of firewall. I don't think either side has a resounding victory in the case of them winning. My guess, though it's extremely far out and none of us really know what we're talking about, is that it comes down to a few close states and nobody has a huge mandate (e.g. winning WI by 5 points, PA by 6 or whatever).

This concept was talked a lot about in 2016. To have a real firewall, it would have to be solid.
If polls show Trump losing WI, PA, & MI by more than 10 points (for example).
That would be a solid firewall. If this stays in place until a day or two before the election, that would make the election results seem inevitable, but certainly given the almost certainty of 2016, more skepticism will be advisable.
It is possible that another state could replace WI since it is the weakest of the three.
MI seems likely to flip, unless Trump gains between now and a year from now, and PA is probably more likely to flip than WI which brings the D to 268, not quite enough for a firewall.
ME2 and NE2 could bring the D to 270 but those would be narrow wins, perhaps not as likely as WI or some other state.

edit: AZ as a lean D state is over-rated. It may be fool's gold and a Trump win there would not surprise me at all. It may be more likely a tossup if not a lean R.

[Farmlands]

States can have huge swings from an election to the other and state polls have seen a terrible track record recently. And no matter how much the democratic candidate wins by in 2020, the Rust Belt is still likely to be more competitive than ever in later elections, if only due to demographic changes. So no.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Previous experience involving Democrats and firewalls to prevent hacking suggest the answer is no.

[ElectionsGuy]

you mean the 279 freiwal? Of course, with a kobucar/rian ticket they will make sure Trump doesn't win rust belt again

[pbrower2a]

Democrats are close to having a firewall. Figure that in every state that Trump lost, even barely, approval for the President is 40% or lower (one cannot win with that) and disapproval is 55% or higher (one gets shut even more). If the low approval is a long-drop hanging, then the high disapproval is a cremation.  There is dead -- and really, really dead.

It gets worse. Neither Michigan nor Pennsylvania looked promising based on the midterm elections, and polling in such states is bad. If Wisconsin, Iowa, or Arizona slips out of reach, then the President can only make desperate gambles... the "must win Virginia even if I lose Ohio" and "must win Colorado even if I put Texas at risk". In such gambles one does not win the target and might lose what one put at risk. If the Democrat plays a good game of electoral chess, then the high risk play of opening a line to one's king just to grab a pawn can be a disaster.

OK, Presidential politics is not chess. A chess player who believes that his opponent has a compelling advantage resigns the game rather than giving a perverse satisfaction to his opponent.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Democrats have any kind of freiwal, it's Trump's ceiling of 46% of the popular vote.

And Trump can win without breaking it, just as he did in 2016.

[Xing]

Freiwals are merely mythical creatures created in a lab by OC. They don't actually exist for Democrats or Trump.

[West_Midlander]

I don't think there is and I don't think there can be a firewall. I think depending on the candidate and how things shape up through the primary, convention, general election campaign and debates, it could be a Trump win similar to Bush 2004 with him taking the popular vote (as well as the EC), it could be a close one, or it could be a large Democratic win by a similar margin and electoral result to Clinton 96 (not the same states of course and no prominent third-party campaign, though).

[MT Treasurer]

Sure, here it is:

215 freiwal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sure, here it is:

215 freiwal

70 polls come out Trump not tied or leading in anyone spells 279 blue wall

[Xing]

Sure, here it is:

215 freiwal

70 polls come out Trump not tied or leading in anyone spells 279 blue wall

Professor, at this moment in time, is the Freiwal of greater strength than the Blue Crescent or the Sunbelt Stack?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I was expressing how GOP are still in denial about what's about to take place. We as Dems, are taught, blue wave. GOP, like SN and FrenchRepublican dont think Dems can win OH, IA or FL ever again. They are pernament red states. Despite polls have shown an average 6 point deficit for Trump

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There was the 272 271 232 227  fireweil last time.

[Gracile]

No, because the whole concept of a "firewall" is based on faulty presuppositions of a state's propensity to vote a certain way (based on previous election results) that often ignore underlying shifts in a given state's partisanship over time.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

252 (2000-04 MI, WI, PA, IA & NM),272 (2008-12 MI, WI, PA, IA),went to 227(2016 VA,CO,NM) now its 278(2020 Va,CO and NM)