Ask Me Anything with 538Electoral

[538Electoral]

I think it's time I let you all ask me questions. I'll only accept political questions for now.

[morgankingsley]

How would you have voted in every election you were alive for?

[538Electoral]

How would you have voted in every election you were alive for?

2000: Gore
2004: Bush
2008: Obama
2012: Obama
2016: Trump

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

2016: Trump

Are you voting for Trump in 2020?

[538Electoral]

2016: Trump

Are you voting for Trump in 2020?

Yes.

[Politician]

What do you think is the worst Atlas meme?

[NeverAgainsSock]

Stance on the electoral college - should there be reforms/abolition?

[538Electoral]

What do you think is the worst Atlas meme?

Kansas going D or Virginia being safe D.

[538Electoral]

Stance on the electoral college - should there be reforms/abolition?

I support the electoral college and leave the electoral college as is.

[DINGO Joe]

Who are the bigger idiots for falling for Trump's BS--farmers or coal miners?

[538Electoral]

Who are the bigger idiots for falling for Trump's BS--farmers or coal miners?

Neither.

[DINGO Joe]

Who are the bigger idiots for falling for Trump's BS--farmers or coal miners?

Neither.

While I guess you could make the argument that all Trump voters are idiots, the obvious answer is coal miners.  Farmers have already gotten a bailout bigger than the auto industry did in the Great Recession while coal miners just continually get the shaft.  Thanks for playing.

[538Electoral]

Who are the bigger idiots for falling for Trump's BS--farmers or coal miners?

Neither.

While I guess you could make the argument that all Trump voters are idiots, the obvious answer is coal miners.  Farmers have already gotten a bailout bigger than the auto industry did in the Great Recession while coal miners just continually get the shaft.  Thanks for playing.

So those 4,000 coal miners added under Trump's presidency mean nothing?

[MarkD]

I have drafted a proposal for a constitutional amendment and would like your reaction: Would you support or oppose this? Below is a summary of the proposal, not the full draft.

My proposal has a Preamble and four sections. The Preamble begins with a two-paragraph-long quotation from Justice James Iredell in the 1798 case of Calder v. Bull, then the Preamble concludes:
"The purpose of this article of the US Constitution is to give three previous amendments greater clarity and precision. The United States government and the respective states should have clear and precise guidelines about their legislative powers. This article will clarify two amendments that are binding on the United States, and it replaces a part of the Fourteenth Amendment, which is binding on the states."
Section 1: The Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment shall henceforth be understood to only mean procedural due process, not substantive due process. In other words, government must not punish anyone without affording that person fair procedures, but the courts are not to second-guess the merits of the laws being enforced. But the federal government does have to treat everyone equally, the same way the states have to according to Section 3(b) of my proposal.
Section 2: The Ninth Amendment is only binding on the federal government, not on the states.
Section 3: The second sentence of Section 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment is hereby repealed and that sentence will be replaced with a new set of rules designed to be narrower and clearer.
3(a) Libertarianism: the states have to obey enumerated rights in the first eight amendments, but the only un-enumerated right that states have to obey is the right to interstate travel. The Supreme Court has twice said "Our obligation is to define the liberty of all, ..." but my proposal tells the Court, and the rest of the country, that statement was completely incorrect. The federal judiciary has neither an obligation nor a prerogative to define liberty. The judiciary's obligation is to expound on the rights that are in the Constitution, not to expand them. The federal judiciary is instructed to stop declaring that states have to obey "fundamental rights" and "basic civil rights" that are not in the Constitution (again, with the one exception being the right to interstate travel). Therefore the Court's decisions about abortion, using contraceptives, sodomy, and any other libertarian ideas not enumerated in the Bill of Rights, no matter how controversial or uncontroversial, will all be overturned.
3(b) Egalitarianism: the states are not allowed to discriminate against anyone on the basis of race, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, or disability status (and because of Section 1 above, the same will go for the federal government). Other than those five kinds of discrimination, all other kinds of discrimination are allowed. The rulings made by federal courts in 2013-2015 about same-sex marriage will be preserved. There will be no such thing as a "fundamental right to marry," but bans on interracial marriage and same-sex marriage will still be unconstitutional.
3(c) Another kind of egalitarianism: The states still have to respect voting rights as established in nearly all precedents the Supreme Court has laid down on that subject so far. In order to avoid gerrymandering of congressional or state legislative districts, redistricting must be done by independent redistricting commissions.
Section 4: Bush v. Gore was the worst decision the Supreme Court has ever rendered, and nothing like it must ever occur again.

Here is a way I have thought of explaining the potential political appeal of my proposal; I have shared this before on Forum Community and asked whether others would consider supporting it.

I carefully designed my proposal to be a compromise between liberal and conservative points of view. Some specific elements will be appealing to conservatives but very much unappealing to liberals, while other elements will be appealing to liberals but very much unappealing to conservatives.  
Appealing to conservatives but repulsive to liberals.
 – Keep the McDonald v. Chicago precedent
 – Overturn Roe v. Wade
 – Overturn Plyler v. Doe
 – Allow states to discriminate based on a person’s status as a non-citizen    

Appealing to liberals but repulsive to conservatives.
 – Disallow states to discriminate based on sex, gender identity, or sexual orientation
 – Keep the Obergefell v. Hodges precedent (the decision, but not the Court's opinion)
 – Keep the Saenz v. Roe precedent
 – Condemn the Bush v. Gore decision and insist that it never be repeated  

Agreeable to both conservatives and liberals.
 – Continue imposing the Bill of Rights on the states
 – Continue protecting the equal right of all citizens to vote
 – Continue prohibiting state discrimination based on race and national origin
 – Start prohibiting state discrimination based on disability status
 – Require redistricting to be done by independent commissions

So, are you interested?

[538Electoral]

I have drafted a proposal for a constitutional amendment and would like your reaction: Would you support or oppose this? Below is a summary of the proposal, not the full draft.

My proposal has a Preamble and four sections. The Preamble begins with a two-paragraph-long quotation from Justice James Iredell in the 1798 case of Calder v. Bull, then the Preamble concludes:
"The purpose of this article of the US Constitution is to give three previous amendments greater clarity and precision. The United States government and the respective states should have clear and precise guidelines about their legislative powers. This article will clarify two amendments that are binding on the United States, and it replaces a part of the Fourteenth Amendment, which is binding on the states."
Section 1: The Due Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment shall henceforth be understood to only mean procedural due process, not substantive due process. In other words, government must not punish anyone without affording that person fair procedures, but the courts are not to second-guess the merits of the laws being enforced. But the federal government does have to treat everyone equally, the same way the states have to according to Section 3(b) of my proposal.
Section 2: The Ninth Amendment is only binding on the federal government, not on the states.
Section 3: The second sentence of Section 1 of the Fourteenth Amendment is hereby repealed and that sentence will be replaced with a new set of rules designed to be narrower and clearer.
3(a) Libertarianism: the states have to obey enumerated rights in the first eight amendments, but the only un-enumerated right that states have to obey is the right to interstate travel. The Supreme Court has twice said "Our obligation is to define the liberty of all, ..." but my proposal tells the Court, and the rest of the country, that statement was completely incorrect. The federal judiciary has neither an obligation nor a prerogative to define liberty. The judiciary's obligation is to expound on the rights that are in the Constitution, not to expand them. The federal judiciary is instructed to stop declaring that states have to obey "fundamental rights" and "basic civil rights" that are not in the Constitution (again, with the one exception being the right to interstate travel). Therefore the Court's decisions about abortion, using contraceptives, sodomy, and any other libertarian ideas not enumerated in the Bill of Rights, no matter how controversial or uncontroversial, will all be overturned.
3(b) Egalitarianism: the states are not allowed to discriminate against anyone on the basis of race, national origin, sex, sexual orientation, or disability status (and because of Section 1 above, the same will go for the federal government). Other than those five kinds of discrimination, all other kinds of discrimination are allowed. The rulings made by federal courts in 2013-2015 about same-sex marriage will be preserved. There will be no such thing as a "fundamental right to marry," but bans on interracial marriage and same-sex marriage will still be unconstitutional.
3(c) Another kind of egalitarianism: The states still have to respect voting rights as established in nearly all precedents the Supreme Court has laid down on that subject so far. In order to avoid gerrymandering of congressional or state legislative districts, redistricting must be done by independent redistricting commissions.
Section 4: Bush v. Gore was the worst decision the Supreme Court has ever rendered, and nothing like it must ever occur again.

Here is a way I have thought of explaining the potential political appeal of my proposal; I have shared this before on Forum Community and asked whether others would consider supporting it.

I carefully designed my proposal to be a compromise between liberal and conservative points of view. Some specific elements will be appealing to conservatives but very much unappealing to liberals, while other elements will be appealing to liberals but very much unappealing to conservatives.  
Appealing to conservatives but repulsive to liberals.
 – Keep the McDonald v. Chicago precedent
 – Overturn Roe v. Wade
 – Overturn Plyler v. Doe
 – Allow states to discriminate based on a person’s status as a non-citizen    

Appealing to liberals but repulsive to conservatives.
 – Disallow states to discriminate based on sex, gender identity, or sexual orientation
 – Keep the Obergefell v. Hodges precedent (the decision, but not the Court's opinion)
 – Keep the Saenz v. Roe precedent
 – Condemn the Bush v. Gore decision and insist that it never be repeated  

Agreeable to both conservatives and liberals.
 – Continue imposing the Bill of Rights on the states
 – Continue protecting the equal right of all citizens to vote
 – Continue prohibiting state discrimination based on race and national origin
 – Start prohibiting state discrimination based on disability status
 – Require redistricting to be done by independent commissions

So, are you interested?

I could get behind this.

[TML]

If Bernie Sanders is elected President, would you feel:

-Excited
-Optimistic
-Concerned
-Scared

[Choose one of the above four options.]

[morgankingsley]

If Trump dies, gets impeached, or resigns before the 2020 election, who will be your second choice

[DINGO Joe]

Who are the bigger idiots for falling for Trump's BS--farmers or coal miners?

Neither.

While I guess you could make the argument that all Trump voters are idiots, the obvious answer is coal miners.  Farmers have already gotten a bailout bigger than the auto industry did in the Great Recession while coal miners just continually get the shaft.  Thanks for playing.

So those 4,000 coal miners added under Trump's presidency mean nothing?

You can believe that if you want and since you're a Trumper why not.  But coal production and consumption are on a constant decline

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/coal.php

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_2_08_b

Does it take more miners in the US to produce the coal that's left that they are producing?  Possibly, but that would make the coal more expensive and thus less competitive going forward.  Are the industry and government estimates of coal mining employment wrong?  Much more likely. 

[538Electoral]

If Bernie Sanders is elected President, would you feel:

-Excited
-Optimistic
-Concerned
-Scared

[Choose one of the above four options.]

-Scared. I'd be very concerned about the future of this country if Sanders is to become president.

[538Electoral]

If Trump dies, gets impeached, or resigns before the 2020 election, who will be your second choice

Pence.

[538Electoral]

BUMP

[morgankingsley]

Which democrat has the best chance to beat Trump and which democrat has the worst

[538Electoral]

Which democrat has the best chance to beat Trump and which democrat has the worst

Best: Bernie Sanders has more appeal to the mid-west.

Worst of the major ones: Most of the corporate ones like Klobuchar or Booker.

[BP🌹]

Does your username reflect your evident belief that Trump will win reelection with 538 electoral votes?

[DINGO Joe]

Does it take more miners in the US to produce the coal that's left that they are producing?  Possibly, but that would make the coal more expensive and thus less competitive going forward.  Are the industry and government estimates of coal mining employment wrong?  Much more likely. 

How exciting that you bumped this!  Turns out that there were more coal miners even as demand declined as many companies were playing chicken waiting for other producers to "rationalize" production, so the stockpiles of unsold coal kept getting higher until they all went bankrupt at once, which made the decline much more dramatic.  Too bad.