2020 Poll Hype Thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 189218 times)
Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #725 on: June 28, 2020, 05:30:12 PM »
Quote from: Granite City on June 28, 2020, 11:42:45 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 28, 2020, 11:34:05 AM
CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l0XruPxbVV8mBoT0mpmeLk4AmbnkIGeH/view

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%

It was Trump +4 at the start of June so expectations should probably be set low for Biden supporters.

[...]

Might just be noise but I'm guessing Biden +6.

That feeling when Biden +6 is considered "low expectations"
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #726 on: June 30, 2020, 11:39:40 AM »

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #727 on: June 30, 2020, 11:45:36 AM »
It would appear Monmouth is dropping tomorrow or Thur w/ their Prez #s
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #728 on: June 30, 2020, 11:46:19 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 30, 2020, 11:39:40 AM



Interesting. their last poll was May 4th and Biden +6
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Pollster
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« Reply #729 on: July 01, 2020, 10:33:13 AM »
Progress Campaign teasing a poll of Kenosha County, WI
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Granite City
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« Reply #730 on: July 01, 2020, 12:55:32 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on June 30, 2020, 11:45:36 AM
It would appear Monmouth is dropping tomorrow or Thur w/ their Prez #s



Should get Trump vs Biden tomorrow as they usually wait a day between releasing the approval numbers and the horse race.

He's down from 43% to 41% approval from the June 1st poll which had Biden +11 so I'm inclined to predict good things.
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electoralfox
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« Reply #731 on: July 03, 2020, 08:08:56 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 28, 2020, 11:34:05 AM
CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far:

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%


That's bad news for Trump. I'm not saying one poll is everything but the tides are turning against him. It's a sinking ship at this point.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #732 on: July 03, 2020, 08:42:04 PM »
Quote from: electoralfox on July 03, 2020, 08:08:56 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on June 28, 2020, 11:34:05 AM
CBS News just completed a poll and released some results today, but no election matchups.  However, some results have been withheld for later release, so we'll probably get them within a day or two.  Results so far:

Among the results:

Generally speaking, do you feel things in America are going...

Very well 5%
Somewhat well 19%
Somewhat badly 36%
Very badly 40%


That's bad news for Trump. I'm not saying one poll is everything but the tides are turning against him. It's a sinking ship at this point.





CBS never released the rest of these results... weird
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #733 on: July 04, 2020, 01:23:00 AM »
Will there ever be a Louisiana poll ?

I think Biden is within 5% there.
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Panhandle Progressive
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« Reply #734 on: July 04, 2020, 07:04:49 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 04, 2020, 01:23:00 AM
Will there ever be a Louisiana poll ?

I think Biden is within 5% there.

What are you smoking? According to JHK https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/ Trump has a 98.7% chance of winning there. Georgia, Iowa, or Ohio? Maybe. But Louisiana? HELL NO!
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #735 on: July 04, 2020, 08:40:49 AM »
So has Marist given up on state polling? There have been no NBC/Marist polls since Ohio back in like March
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #736 on: July 04, 2020, 11:47:47 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 04, 2020, 08:40:49 AM
So has Marist given up on state polling? There have been no NBC/Marist polls since Ohio back in like March

I think they are waiting for the conventions or after Labor Day, then switch to likely voters and release more polls.

Same with Mason-Dixon.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #737 on: July 06, 2020, 12:12:36 PM »
It appears that NBC/Marist state polls are indeed returning later this Summer
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #738 on: July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM »
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.



Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #739 on: July 07, 2020, 12:47:06 AM »
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.



Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #740 on: July 07, 2020, 02:33:47 AM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 07, 2020, 12:47:06 AM
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.



Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.    Wink

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll".... Smiley
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #741 on: July 07, 2020, 02:52:42 AM »
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 07, 2020, 12:47:06 AM
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.



Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.    Wink

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll".... Smiley
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Skye
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« Reply #742 on: July 07, 2020, 04:10:14 AM »
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.


Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

It's only been 6 hours and they've raised 4.5k. Pretty amazing.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #743 on: July 07, 2020, 05:06:14 AM »
Honestly, if we did crowdfunded things for a ton of polls I'd probably donate lol
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #744 on: July 07, 2020, 05:09:16 AM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on July 07, 2020, 02:33:47 AM
Quote from: Minnesota Mike on July 07, 2020, 12:47:06 AM
Quote from: #Bidenworth2020 on July 06, 2020, 11:54:41 PM
Election Twitter is crowdfunding (yes, you read that right), a poll of AK-SEN, which will also include presidential numbers and Biden/Trump favorables.



Gaining money quick, so it seems likely that we will get the long-awaited Alaksa poll!

60% of the way there in 2 hours.

Turns out 80% of the donors are Atlas / Talk Election Members.    Wink

Still pretty cool, but naturally wouldn't be smoking any of that Alaskan Northern Lights strain without some serious backup and verification of legit polling methods in *insert Atlas Cliche* "One of the most difficult states to poll".... Smiley

"Our sample included six people, two Grizzly Bears, and a Snowy Owl."
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Skye
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« Reply #745 on: July 07, 2020, 06:45:18 AM »
Alright they hit 5k, in 8 hours no less. AK poll is happening folks.

Next, a Wyoming poll please.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #746 on: July 07, 2020, 10:04:31 AM »
Do we know if the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll is coming back? Looks like they started about July 2016 last time

https://cesrusc.org/election/
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #747 on: July 07, 2020, 10:30:01 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:04:31 AM
Do we know if the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll is coming back? Looks like they started about July 2016 last time

https://cesrusc.org/election/

Emailed them. Got a response:

"We expect to start the tracking poll in late summer or early fall."
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Lognog
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« Reply #748 on: July 07, 2020, 10:36:12 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:30:01 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:04:31 AM
Do we know if the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll is coming back? Looks like they started about July 2016 last time

https://cesrusc.org/election/

Emailed them. Got a response:

"We expect to start the tracking poll in late summer or early fall."

Ladies and Gentleman, we got him.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #749 on: July 07, 2020, 10:40:23 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:30:01 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 07, 2020, 10:04:31 AM
Do we know if the USC Dornsife/LA Times tracking poll is coming back? Looks like they started about July 2016 last time

https://cesrusc.org/election/

Emailed them. Got a response:

"We expect to start the tracking poll in late summer or early fall."

Will the Trump black voter be back?
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