KY-AARP: Trump +12
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  KY-AARP: Trump +12
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Author Topic: KY-AARP: Trump +12  (Read 1816 times)
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 16, 2019, 07:45:52 PM »

https://www.aarp.org/research/topics/politics/info-2019/five-state-prescription-drug-survey.html
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Canis
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« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2019, 07:56:02 PM »

wayyy to close
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2019, 08:04:14 PM »

Folks need to seriously worry about Trump voters hanging up on the polls.  Every time I see one of these in a blowout Trump 2016 state, it makes me suspect that all those Biden +5-10 margins we keep seeing in the major Midwest swing states are skewed several % by nonresponse bias. 
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2019, 08:08:44 PM »

Folks need to seriously worry about Trump voters hanging up on the polls.  Every time I see one of these in a blowout Trump 2016 state, it makes me suspect that all those Biden +5-10 margins we keep seeing in the major Midwest swing states are skewed several % by nonresponse bias. 

This is a common talking point, but there's little to no evidence of an actual bias to that effect.  See for example this 2017 article from Pew Research.
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NYDem
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« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2019, 09:28:28 PM »
« Edited: January 21, 2020, 08:59:36 AM by NYDem »

Main Points:

Presidential: Trump 53 - Biden 41  (Trump +12)
Trump Approval: Approve 55 - Disapprove 43  (+12 Approval)

Senate Generic Ballot: R 48 - D 42  (R+6)
Senate: McConnell 47 - McGrath 46  (McConnell +1)
McConnell Job Approval: Disapprove 51 - Approve 46  (-5 Approval)
McConnell Favorability: Unfavorable 54 - Favorable 35  (-19 Favorability)
McGrath Favorability: Favorable 27 - Unfavorable 23  (+4 Favorability)

Sample
Party Registration: Democratic 45 - Republican 43 - Independent 10
Ideology: Conservative 44 - Moderate 31 - Liberal 18
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #5 on: September 16, 2019, 09:29:36 PM »

Folks need to seriously worry about Trump voters hanging up on the polls.  Every time I see one of these in a blowout Trump 2016 state, it makes me suspect that all those Biden +5-10 margins we keep seeing in the major Midwest swing states are skewed several % by nonresponse bias. 

This is a common talking point, but there's little to no evidence of an actual bias to that effect.  See for example this 2017 article from Pew Research.

It's an issue primarily at the state level.  At the nationwide presidential PV/GCB level, it appears to be cancelled out by people who speak Spanish at home not answering in the Southwest.  But we've had polling consistently underestimate Republicans in most of the Midwest/Florida and consistently underestimate Democrats in TX/NM/AZ/NV/CA/arguably CO during the Trump era.  I mean, Cruz was up 8 in the RCP average and Clinton was underestimated in CA by more than she was overestimated in the key Midwest states. 
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: September 16, 2019, 09:31:00 PM »

Senate: McConnell 47 - McGrath 46  (McConnell +1)
McConnell Job Approval: Disapprove 51 - Approve 46  (-5 Approval)

No and no.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #7 on: September 16, 2019, 10:06:15 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2019, 10:09:19 PM by TrendsareReal »

Folks need to seriously worry about Trump voters hanging up on the polls.  Every time I see one of these in a blowout Trump 2016 state, it makes me suspect that all those Biden +5-10 margins we keep seeing in the major Midwest swing states are skewed several % by nonresponse bias.  

This is a common talking point, but there's little to no evidence of an actual bias to that effect.  See for example this 2017 article from Pew Research.

It's an issue primarily at the state level.  At the nationwide presidential PV/GCB level, it appears to be cancelled out by people who speak Spanish at home not answering in the Southwest.  But we've had polling consistently underestimate Republicans in most of the Midwest/Florida and consistently underestimate Democrats in TX/NM/AZ/NV/CA/arguably CO during the Trump era.  I mean, Cruz was up 8 in the RCP average and Clinton was underestimated in CA by more than she was overestimated in the key Midwest states.  

Yeah, Democrats seemed to underperform their polling across the Midwest in 2018 and overperform it in the Southwest.

Not just in the Senate races either. Lupe Valdez, David Garcia, Steve Sisolak and Gavin Nelson all did much better than their polling indicated
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2019, 12:24:46 AM »

Not surprised, considering many of these voters are Ancestral Dems from Coal Country and waiting for a REAL DEM to stand up and speak to their communities.

Trump is a clown, and although many of these voters don't see a DEM yet that they will support, currently Trump and McConnell's favs are increasingly getting flushed down the toilet, as is the case in many working-class voters from SE-KY as well as Auto-Sector Mfg Counties, not to mention collapse of support in suburban Cinci Counties, and similar places in downstate KY.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2019, 12:32:56 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2019, 12:36:06 AM by KYWildman »

It actually would not surprise me all that much if Biden got 41% of the vote in Kentucky; that's how much Obama got in 2008, and Biden is a considerably better fit for the state even if it has only trended right since then.

Trump wouldn't only get 53% of the vote, but I wouldn't be too shocked if Biden broke 40. A 57-41 margin like McCain had would make some sense, especially if it does turn out to be another strong year for Dems nationally.
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« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2019, 12:39:23 AM »

Please note that 538's final forecast (as of the morning of Election Day) had Trump winning KY by about 19 points, yet he actually won by 30 points.

If trends from the recent past continue, it would suggest that Trump would win KY in 2020 by a margin in the mid-20s.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2019, 01:37:42 AM »

Please note that 538's final forecast (as of the morning of Election Day) had Trump winning KY by about 19 points, yet he actually won by 30 points.

If trends from the recent past continue, it would suggest that Trump would win KY in 2020 by a margin in the mid-20s.

It's not that simple though. Parties and candidates have ceilings, the national environment (which the FiveThirtyEight average obviously overestimated for the Democrats that year) has an impact, and the specific candidates running make a difference. So I wouldn't be shocked if, say, a Kamala Harris who lost the popular vote nationwide managed to underperform Hillary, let alone Obama, let alone Bill Clinton in Kentucky. But I would also not be shocked if a Joe Biden (who was the one polled here) who won the popular vote by 5 or more points managed to significantly outperform Hillary and more or less match Obama's 2008 margin here. It's all relative, and "trends" in and of themselves are not the end-all, be-all answer to anything. Kentucky has not shifted so far right since 2008 that a margin similar to McCain's would be unthinkable for any candidate under any situation; Texas, on the other hand, has shifted so far to the left since then that a margin similar to McCain's there would be pretty much unthinkable. The demographic and voter changes driving these trends, after all, obviously have to be taken into consideration.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2019, 07:24:36 AM »

It actually would not surprise me all that much if Biden got 41% of the vote in Kentucky; that's how much Obama got in 2008, and Biden is a considerably better fit for the state even if it has only trended right since then.

Trump wouldn't only get 53% of the vote, but I wouldn't be too shocked if Biden broke 40. A 57-41 margin like McCain had would make some sense, especially if it does turn out to be another strong year for Dems nationally.

There's a plausible scenario in which Biden improves a point or 2 on Clinton, but even that's unlikely.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2019, 12:16:54 PM »

Junk poll!
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2019, 12:39:13 PM »

This poll is clearly trash. Kentucky is just a horrible fit for democrats, the democratic presidential candidate will be very lucky if he is able to win 34% in the state, and yeah even #UncleJoe would get demolished
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2019, 12:42:05 PM »

It actually would not surprise me all that much if Biden got 41% of the vote in Kentucky; that's how much Obama got in 2008, and Biden is a considerably better fit for the state even if it has only trended right since then.

Trump wouldn't only get 53% of the vote, but I wouldn't be too shocked if Biden broke 40. A 57-41 margin like McCain had would make some sense, especially if it does turn out to be another strong year for Dems nationally.

There's a plausible scenario in which Biden improves a point or 2 on Clinton, but even that's unlikely.

Yeah, there are no upside for democrats in KY
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2019, 01:05:28 PM »

I wouldnt call these KY polls trash until we see the results of the Gov race in Nov. If Beshear wins, McConnell is in deep trouble.  Obviously, Dems are gunning for McConnell and Bevin, not trying to win KY, as a state at Presidential level.

KY, does have WWC appeal, and its a state below OH. Biden, Bettigieg and Beto have WWC appeal. Biden may be Prez nominee and Buttigieg or Beto may be Warren's Veep, their appeal, can appeal towards voters who want to ditch McConnell and Ohioans.
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redjohn
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« Reply #17 on: September 17, 2019, 02:02:26 PM »

This poll is clearly trash. Kentucky is just a horrible fit for democrats, the democratic presidential candidate will be very lucky if he is able to win 34% in the state, and yeah even #UncleJoe would get demolished

Yeah, no Democrat is cracking 40% against Trump in any circumstance in KY.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2019, 08:39:45 AM »

Yeah, if Kentucky is Trump +12 than i have doubts over the same polling bureau indicating that AZ is +5 for Biden.
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