Which counties will Bevin win?

[ElectionsGuy]

These 11 counties + Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin are all the counties that Conway won in 2015. Which ones will Bevin carry in 2015?

I think probably all except Nicholas, Marion, and Elliott, though even those could go to him too. He'll obviously do worse in the other three and the Cinci suburbs.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Rowan has a college and voted out Kim Davis last year, so that seems to be the likeliest of the bunch to go Beshear. He maybe loses one of the Cincinnati suburban counties and maybe another random one like Nicholas or Bourbon but I doubt much more than that

Just wait til Trump has a rally there and Bevin runs some MS-13 ads. It’ll make Allison Grimes 2014 Senate map look amazing

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Warren (Bowling Green) is probably the statewide bellweather in this race.

[Xing]

I'll be #bold, and guess all of them. I guess I could see Henderson and maybe Rowan county holding for Beshear, but I'm currently guessing that they won't.

[Calthrina950]

I'll be #bold, and guess all of them. I guess I could see Henderson and maybe Rowan county holding for Beshear, but I'm currently guessing that they won't.

Rowan is the only one I think Beshear stands a good chance of carrying. Possibly Elliott, but I think Bevin is favored there, given Rogers' victory in the county during last year's midterms. All of the others will go to Bevin.

[Donerail]

I think Warren (Bowling Green) is probably the statewide bellweather in this race.

Unlikely — Warren typically votes a few points to the right of the state

[Frenchrepublican]

All of them except Rowan, Elliott, Marion and Nicholas

[Frenchrepublican]

I'll be #bold, and guess all of them. I guess I could see Henderson and maybe Rowan county holding for Beshear, but I'm currently guessing that they won't.

Rowan is the only one I think Beshear stands a good chance of carrying. Possibly Elliott, but I think Bevin is favored there, given Rogers' victory in the county during last year's midterms. All of the others will go to Bevin.

Beshear will probably win Elliott, Bevin won’t win KY-5 by a 60 points margin

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I think Warren (Bowling Green) is probably the statewide bellweather in this race.

Unlikely — Warren typically votes a few points to the right of the state

Warren voted 6 points to the left of Kentucky in 2016 (Trump +24 vs. Trump +30).  Now, I expect Bevin to fall further from Trump in rural areas than urban/suburban areas (2016-19 trend that is, not the official trend based on 2015-GOV), so I think a county like Warren will probably be similar to the statewide margin.  In other 2015 and 2016 races, Warren was to the right of the state as a whole.  A middle ground between the patterns seems reasonable for this race.

[Donerail]

I think Warren (Bowling Green) is probably the statewide bellweather in this race.

Unlikely — Warren typically votes a few points to the right of the state

Warren voted 6 points to the left of Kentucky in 2016 (Trump +24 vs. Trump +30).  Now, I expect Bevin to fall further from Trump in rural areas than urban/suburban areas (2016-19 trend that is, not the official trend based on 2015-GOV), so I think a county like Warren will probably be similar to the statewide margin.  In other 2015 and 2016 races, Warren was to the right of the state as a whole.  A middle ground between the patterns seems reasonable for this race.

Warren voted to the right of the state in Senate elections in 2016, 2014, 2010, 2008, 2004, & 2002, and in gubernatorial elections in 2015, 2011, 2007, & 2003. There is a strong and organized local Republican party that knows how to turn people out for local elections, especially these off-year races. I expect Bevin's vote to hold up fairly well in Warren (he did better there in the primary this year than he did statewide), which would put it solidly to the right of the state.

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

Among all of them, Elliott will be the first to flip. Proof:
 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Have you folks even looked at the polls?

[Donerail]

you made the posts too small so i cannot read what they actually say. fairly ineffective lib-owning, i'll be generous and give it a 3/10

[Yellowhammer]

you made the posts too small so i cannot read what they actually say. fairly ineffective lib-owning, i'll be generous and give it a 3/10

Must have pretty bad eyesight.

[IceSpear]

Among all of them, Elliott will be the first to flip. Proof:

LOL'd at "NY billionaires are a poor fit for rural Kentucky."

[IceSpear]

Have you folks even looked at the polls?

The ancient Democratic internals? Yes, I think we've all seen them.

And even if they weren't Democratic internals, Bredesen was leading in the polling average until October only to get BTFO by double digits in the end. I expect a similar trajectory this time.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The only poll that has had Bevin ahead is an ancient Gravis poll, a Republican internal.

[Skunk]

I really don't see how Bevin can win by double digits. I'm usually a firm believer in the racist hicks theory™ but I think the comparisons to Tennessee and Oklahoma aren't going to apply here because:

a.) Marsha Blackburn had considerably higher approvals than Bevin (Marsha Blackburn had 55-40% favorability in the CNN exit polls and there's no way Bevin can rebound his popularity that fast) 

b.) Kevin Stitt was able to distance himself from Fallin due to not having any connection to the administration and portrayed himself as an "outsider", which Bevin obviously can not do

Bevin can certainly still win (and I'd argue he's the current favorite, albeit slightly) just because of Kentucky's partisan lean but I'm pretty confident it won't be by double digits. Still a tossup race IMO.

[Calthrina950]

I'll be #bold, and guess all of them. I guess I could see Henderson and maybe Rowan county holding for Beshear, but I'm currently guessing that they won't.

Rowan is the only one I think Beshear stands a good chance of carrying. Possibly Elliott, but I think Bevin is favored there, given Rogers' victory in the county during last year's midterms. All of the others will go to Bevin.

Beshear will probably win Elliott, Bevin won’t win KY-5 by a 60 points margin

He won't, but given polarization and the continuing urban-rural shift, he won't need that kind of a margin to carry Elliott. The Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-9 special indicate that the shift is proceeding in full force. At this point, I'm thinking that Bevin will probably win every county except for Jefferson, Fayette, and Franklin, with Rowan and one of the Cincinnati suburban counties being within the realm of possibility (and that's stretching it) for Beshear.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Beshear almost certainly picks up Kenton.

[Del Tachi]

All of them

[ElectionsGuy]

Bath: 52-46 Beshear
Barboun: 50-48 Bevin
Carroll: 52-45 Bevin
Floyd: 53-45 Beshear
Elliott: 59-39 Beshear
Henderson: 51-47 Beshear
Marion: 52-46 Beshear
Nicholas: 49.5-48.5 Beshear
Rowan: 58.5-39.7 Beshear
Union: 57-41 Bevin
Wolfe: 54.5-43.7 Beshear

Beshear won 8/11, and added 12 more:

Boyd, Breathitt, Cambell, Carter, Hancock, Kenton, Knott, Madison, Magoffin Scott, Warren, Woodford.