In which states could we see a FL 2004 / NH 2004 "redux" in a close race?

[MT Treasurer]

As in, which major swing state widely thought to be extremely close and going down to the wire in a close race actually turns out to be a surprisingly comfortable victory for the incumbent on election day? And which state carried by Trump in 2016 could flip Democratic even if Trump wins reelection and flips one or more states he lost in 2016?

I’m not saying that any of this will happen, it’s purely hypothetical.

I’d say...

FL 2004: WI, maybe MI
NH 2004: PA and AZ (even as Trump flips NH/ME, maybe MN), maybe MI or even GA

[OSR stands with Israel]

FL 2004: FL again

NH 2004: MI

[Skill and Chance]

I basically agree with yours.  PA could have been a one-time thing for Trump, but he's likely to improve in the rest of the Midwest and AZ is more likely to flip Dem than not.  GA has maybe a 1-in-3 chance of flipping, but it should be Dem for a very long time after 2020.

Florida could also be a surprise Trump+5 win, but South Florida makes this more uncertain.

It doesn't fit with your categories, but I could see Kansas surprisingly being only like Trump+8.

[MT Treasurer]

I basically agree with yours.  PA could have been a one-time thing for Trump, but he's likely to improve in the rest of the Midwest and AZ is more likely to flip Dem than not.  GA has maybe a 1-in-3 chance of flipping, but it should be Dem for a very long time after 2020.

Florida could also be a surprise Trump+5 win, but South Florida makes this more uncertain.

It doesn't fit with your categories, but I could see Kansas surprisingly being only like Trump+8.

Yeah, KS, UT, RI would be my choices if we’re talking about safe R/D states being surprisingly close (don’t buy that UT is guarateed to swing R, and RI even swung nine points to Bush in 2004). If things get really weird and Trump improves in the popular vote or 2020 is 2016 on steroids, maybe ME voting Trump +5 or something like that.

[Crumpets]

ME will be an easy Democratic win, IA will be an easy Republican win.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

I'm curious how much of this forum thinks Trump will expand on his win in Michigan, or win WI by more than 2 points.  Thoughts?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NH: Arizona or Pennsylvania
FL: Florida.

[OSR stands with Israel]

NH: Arizona or Pennsylvania
FL: Florida.

AZ was a Lean R state in 2000 while NH was a tossup which went down the wire so the comparison doesn’t work . NC would be the better example

[Xing]

FL: I doubt Trump wins any of MI/PA/WI/FL by 5 in a close race, but it could happen if he's winning comfortably.

NH: Probably any of MI/PA/WI individually. AZ is possible, but less likely.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm curious how much of this forum thinks Trump will expand on his win in Michigan, or win WI by more than 2 points.  Thoughts?

Both are more likely than not.  The main alternative scenario is a 2008 style Dem+7-10 PV win in a recession, which IMO would look like this:

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NH: Arizona or Pennsylvania
FL: Florida.

AZ was a Lean R state in 2000 while NH was a tossup which went down the wire so the comparison doesn’t work . NC would be the better example

Arizona votes left of Nc in 2016 dude

[Politician]

ME will be an easy Democratic win, IA will be an easy Republican win.

No way ME is an easy Democratic win, something something 2016 trends/urban rural divide/WWC trends!

YES! I agree IA is an easy Republican win, something something 2016 trends/urban rural divide/WWC trends!

[Politician]

NH: Arizona or Pennsylvania
FL: Florida.

AZ was a Lean R state in 2000 while NH was a tossup which went down the wire so the comparison doesn’t work . NC would be the better example

Arizona votes left of Nc in 2016 dude

[evidence needed]

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

NH: Arizona or Pennsylvania
FL: Florida.

AZ was a Lean R state in 2000 while NH was a tossup which went down the wire so the comparison doesn’t work . NC would be the better example

Arizona votes left of Nc in 2016 dude

[evidence needed]

I know you’re very bad at this election analysis stuff, but let’s break this down:

NC: Trump +3.66
AZ: Trump +3.50

The first number is bigger than the latter ya see. And since Mr. Trump is a Republican, that means that Arizona voted to the left of North Carolina in 2016. Are you following me?

[LiberalDem19]

New Hampshire: Minnesota or Michigan

Florida: Texas. Alot of people are predicting it's gonna be really close, I think it's gonna go by 6 or so.

[Skill and Chance]

Michigan is interesting this time because it's more likely to be one side or the other winning it by 5 than it is to be really close again. 

[Mr. Smith]

FL '04: Michigan or NC

NH '04: Wisconsin or Arizona

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

I can see Minnesota and Pennsylvania I can see being an FL-type outcome (both with D wins of course). My prior is still that Georgia is more likely to be a comfortable win than a narrow win for Trump so I guess GA is my NH-analogue.

I'm curious how much of this forum thinks Trump will expand on his win in Michigan, or win WI by more than 2 points.  Thoughts?

Trump has space to win Wisconsin by two points. Depends on how much of black turnout in M'waukee rebounds but there's still plenty of room for D freefall especially north of 29. Michigan I think it's highly unlikely to see Trump expanding his win.

ME will be an easy Democratic win, IA will be an easy Republican win.

No way ME is an easy Democratic win, something something 2016 trends/urban rural divide/WWC trends!

YES! I agree IA is an easy Republican win, something something 2016 trends/urban rural divide/WWC trends!

What the hell is wrong with you?