Bernie Sanders 2020 campaign megathread v2 (pg 77 - declares victory in Iowa)

[Libertas Vel Mors]

lol.  most of this ad is pretty effective, but I'm not sure how well "queer liberation" plays in an Iowa or South Carolina primary much less a general election.

https://twitter.com/jneeley78/status/1196098116031791107?s=20

The Bernie campaign is embracing a very AOC rhetoric.

Bernie campaign leaning on AOC is not a good strategy for primary states where the electorate is old people. I could see this working in SC and NV but IA and NH seem like places where AOC is... not incredibly popular, even among Democrats.

Bernie doesn't have to win over conservative olds. If he consolidates the progressive vote and gets 30% in Iowa and NH he probably comes first.

Yeah but he won't

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1196814213731274752

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bernie opposes reforms like ending filibuster and CRT packing; as a result, would leave Citizens United in place. This was why McConnell blocked Garland due to Mcconnell's advocacy for 1st and 2nd amendment rights, guns and dirty money. Other candidates support ending filibuster and endorse CRT packing

Joe Kennedy is opposing Markey due to his stance on filibuster,  which Markey still supports

This is why impeachment is DOA in the Senate due to Graham,  Mcconnell's advocacy for Citizens United

[All Along The Watchtower]

Bernie opposes reforms like ending filibuster and CRT packing; as a result, would leave Citizens United in place. This was why McConnell blocked Garland due to Mcconnell's advocacy for 1st and 2nd amendment rights, guns and dirty money. Other candidates support ending filibuster and endorse CRT packing

Joe Kennedy is opposing Markey due to his stance on filibuster,  which Markey still supports

This is why impeachment is DOA in the Senate due to Graham,  Mcconnell's advocacy for Citizens United

Fantastic analysis as always.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Can someone please explain Pete and Bernie’s recent rise in polls and betting odds?

[YE]

Can someone please explain Pete and Bernie’s recent rise in polls and betting odds?

Merging this with the Bernie megathread since I think Pete's been well discussed elsewhere.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Can someone please explain Pete and Bernie’s recent rise in polls and betting odds?

Pete’s is natural - the moderates who don’t like Biden are beginning to coalesce around him (and to a lesser extent Klobuchar). Bernie could be because the era of the Warren surge is over.

[ugabug]

Can someone please explain Pete and Bernie’s recent rise in polls and betting odds?

Pete is because there is a set of voters who don't like Biden for one reason or another (to old, to moderate, or running a bad campaign) and who think Warren and Sanders are to far to the left and want a alternative to all three.

As for Sanders he previously lost ground to Warren during her surge and than his heart attack but a mix of him during well in the last debate, getting endorsements from the squad, and Warren coming under more scrutiny has caused him to rebound a bit and regain some of his supporters who he previously lost to Warren.

[Shadows]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1196814213731274752

If that us true then he will raise atleast 30M if not more. There is a big windfall after the debates & there is a big windfall at the end of the Quarter.

I think he may go near 35M if the above mentioned.

[Canis]

Sanders just surpassed Warren on the RCP Average

[Shadows]

Sanders just surpassed Warren on the RCP Average

Yeah but more to do with Warren with a small Bernie bounce. Warren has fallen quite a bit in the Early States & Notionally losing most ground to Pete in Iowa & NH.

The good news is as per the Morning Consult Poll which has a huge sample size, Sanders is now the 2nd choice among Biden & Warren supporters. Given Sanders' own locked up somewhat sticky support, potentially gaining some Biden & Warren supporters can be crucial.

Biden has gone down in Iowa & NH to the benefit of Pete. If he loses more support nationally, in the South & Midwest, it will help Bernie the most.

[cvparty]

not really an endorsement but...support at least you could say?

https://twitter.com/arianagrande/status/1197257294477701123?s=21

[Mr. Smith]

What you guys aren’t getting is that tweet is highlighting how ignorant of history that tweet is . Civil rights was an issue FDR was pretty bad at , and the idea he was anti war is just hillarious in every way possible

He was by far the best of any of them since the other Roosevelt on the issue, maybe even Benjamin Harrison.

He looks terrible now, but that's really more a statement to how, like most other issues we know of, really altered with WWII.

[GAProgressive]

He killed it at Morehouse yesterday.

Gotta say, I'm pretty impressed.

[TWTown]

He killed it at Morehouse yesterday.

Gotta say, I'm pretty impressed.

Hopefully, it keeps up but I've never felt more optimistic then I have now about the way this campaign is going. Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate. My hope is that he gets a lot more chances to impress voters like you.

[GAProgressive]

He killed it at Morehouse yesterday.

Gotta say, I'm pretty impressed.

Hopefully, it keeps up but I've never felt more optimistic then I have now about the way this campaign is going. Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate. My hope is that he gets a lot more chances to impress voters like you.

Have him keep showing up at HBCUs and connecting with the crowd after rallies and he just might do this thing.

[The Mikado]

 Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate.

That's based entirely on the Emerson poll, though. We've been in a bit of a polling drought, and probably that'll last through next week? It'll be interesting to see if Emerson's numbers are reflected elsewhere when we start getting lots of polls again.

[Eraserhead]

 Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate.

That's based entirely on the Emerson poll, though. We've been in a bit of a polling drought, and probably that'll last through next week? It'll be interesting to see if Emerson's numbers are reflected elsewhere when we start getting lots of polls again.

I get that this post is pretty dated but Sanders is indeed ahead of Warren in almost every major poll now.

That said, Emerson continues to produce stronger numbers for Sanders than other polls.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

 Bernie has just gotten to second place on the RCP and he performed well enough at the last debate.

That's based entirely on the Emerson poll, though. We've been in a bit of a polling drought, and probably that'll last through next week? It'll be interesting to see if Emerson's numbers are reflected elsewhere when we start getting lots of polls again.

I get that this post is pretty dated but Sanders is indeed ahead of Warren in almost every major poll now.

That said, Emerson continues to produce stronger numbers for Sanders than other polls.

I guess if Emerson (highly respected, did very well in 2018) gets tossed then you have to junk the YouGov/Economist poll (kinda garbage, did not do well in 2018).

Sanders is surging, Loyal Teenaged Democrats of America.  Gonna have to face facts!

[The Mikado]

I'm not saying "toss it," I'm saying that his best poll is the next in line to fall off the average, and that his average is going to significantly decrease once it does. That's the way rolling averages work. You've been watching RCP for over a decade just like I have, you know why there are all those wild swings...when a poll that's really good for or bad for a candidate falls off the average.

[redjohn]

I think, as most here probably do, that the MSM is vastly underestimated Bernie's base, especially in a fractured field. In poll after poll, Sanders drastically leads with voters who are sure of their candidate preference. His campaign this time around is much better run than his 2016 campaign, and they have much more popular surrogates this time who will swing votes.

[The Mikado]

I think, as most here probably do, that the MSM is vastly underestimated Bernie's base, especially in a fractured field. In poll after poll, Sanders drastically leads with voters who are sure of their candidate preference. His campaign this time around is much better run than his 2016 campaign, and they have much more popular surrogates this time who will swing votes.

How fractured is the field, really? By mid-February we'll probably be down to half a dozen candidates, by March three or four. Results in the low twenties, or even in the mid twenties, aren't going to win in a four way race, and certainly not in a three way race.

The field is fractured enough that you could win pluralities with 35-40% support, sure. Not with 20-25%.

[Shadows]

All those points would have been sensible & not ridiculous if Sanders was not the 2nd choice among both Biden & Warren supporters. In a 2 way race with Buttigieg, he is likely getting over 60% & over 50-55% vs Warren. The only person who is beating him 1 on 1 is Biden who is polling poorly in early states & has a soft support & Sanders is the 2nd choice of his voters as per Morning Consult polls.

Among Black & Hispanic voters, Pete is 4th choice behind Biden, Bernie & Warren which closes any path that he has.

[coolface1572]

If Bernie gets less pledged delegates but wins because of superdelegates, how will his supporters react?

[Ronnie]

Just pointing out the obvious that this will never, ever happen.