Hamilton County, Indiana (Carmel)

[MT Treasurer]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

Since you are so certain about the political future of suburbs, how do you explain Williamson County, TN trending Republican from 2016 PRES to 2018-GOV and 2018-HOUSE, relative to both the nation and the state as a whole?  Williamson, TN is probably the archetype of a red-state, deeply conservative, well-off, suburban county.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

RT MT Treasurer. Republicans will do no better then they did in 2018. A really weak democrat could get 39-40 percent of the vote but GOP will not get more then 52

[cvparty]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

Since you are so certain about the political future of suburbs, how do you explain Williamson County, TN trending Republican from 2016 PRES to 2018-GOV and 2018-HOUSE, relative to both the nation and the state as a whole?  Williamson, TN is probably the archetype of a red-state, deeply conservative, well-off, suburban county.

well i don’t necessarily agree that hamilton will trend strong D again in 2020, but those are downballot races and house elections aren’t really good for comparison. from the last gubernatorial williamson clearly trended D. most D-trending suburbs were about the same or more republican leaning in 2018 than in the 2016 presidential, but they all were clearly “catching up” to 2016 trends compared to the last cycle. ex: chesco in PA-GOV, kent in MI-GOV, duval in FL-GOV

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

Hamilton County is a lot more than just Carmel, for starters.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Probably wins by the same margin as Mike Braun (52/44), give or take 1-2 percentage points.

ROFL

Anyway, probably around 57% or just barely short of it due to the third party vote decreasing.

[Skye]

Maybe around 55%? I don't think he's going to perform as badly as Braun did there.

Then again, we still don't know how the election is going to turn out.

[ElectionsGuy]

~55/40 Trump

[Frenchrepublican]

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

What are you smoking ?

2016 PRES :
Hamilton county : R+19.32
Statewide : R+19.01

2018 SEN :
Hamilton county : R+7.96
Statewide : R+6.92

[MT Treasurer]

^Don’t be deliberately obtuse. Obviously the 2018 Trend map is based on the 2012-2018 swing and not the 2016-2018 swing, and rightly so because Senate races in these red states aren’t comparable at all to presidential elections.

Hamilton trended something like 19 points to the left between 2012 and 2018.

[walleye26]

Just curious here, wouldn’t Johnson County KS be a better “educated wealthy county” to evaluate rather than Hamilton?

[Frenchrepublican]

^Don’t be deliberately obtuse. Obviously the 2018 Trend map is based on the 2012-2018 swing and not the 2016-2018 swing, and rightly so because Senate races in these red states aren’t comparable at all to presidential elections.

Hamilton trended something like 19 points to the left between 2012 and 2018.

Hamilton trended heavily D between 2012 and 2016 (15 points to the left) but it’s pretty unlikely that it will trend 15 points D again in 2020 simply because it’s uncommon for an area to trend heavily toward the same party two elections in a row.

Lmao Hamilton literally did just that in 2016 and 2018.

You're the one who compared 2016 and 2018

[MT Treasurer]

^I did not compare 2016 and 2018, I said that it trended strongly Democratic in 2016 and in 2018, which is an accurate statement. I posted the trend maps above.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

[Frenchrepublican]

^I did not compare 2016 and 2018, I said that it trended strongly Democratic in 2016 and in 2018, which is an accurate statement. I posted the trend maps above.

OK, but if comparing 2012 IN SEN with 2018 IN SEN will obviously show a big D trend in Hamilton county, it doesn't mean anything for 2020.
Trends at the Senate level between 2012 and 2018 are linked to what happened between 2012 and 2016 at Presidential level, so it's not indicative of what will happen between 2016 and 2020 at the Presidential level.

[MT Treasurer]

Trends at the Senate level between 2012 and 2018 are linked to what happened between 2012 and 2016 at Pres level, it's not indicative of what will happen between 2016 and 2020.

See, that’s where we disagree, so we’ll just have to see in 14 months.

[libertpaulian]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.


Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We will have to see. Does someone promises to bump this topic in 14 months, when the numbers of IN and KY come in.

[ElectionsGuy]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.


Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

[MT Treasurer]

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

It’s not a lazy assumption when all the data points support it. People said the same thing ("Going from Trump to Trump is not significant/Now Trump is the incumbent/People have gotten used to Trump by now") in 2018.

[ElectionsGuy]

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

It’s not a lazy assumption when all the data points support it. People said the same thing ("Going from Trump to Trump is not significant/Now Trump is the incumbent/People have gotten used to Trump by now") in 2018.

Data points? If we're going to use county results from Senate races in the Midwest that were double-digit blowouts (or in this case, 13 points more Dem than the Presidential result in 2016 and an obvious outlier for Indiana) that's obviously not a good measure. In most cases, the democratic trending suburban counties actually were more Republican in 2018 than 2016 relative to the respective state margins.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Just curious here, wouldn’t Johnson County KS be a better “educated wealthy county” to evaluate rather than Hamilton?

Johnson County, KS won't have polls closing at 6 PM EST.

[Tekken_Guy]

I believe Trump will win by single digits this time around. It’s moving leftward very fast.

[Frenchrepublican]

Apparently a majority of people believe that Trump will win less than 55% in Hamilton County. As a reminder here are the performances of different republican candidates in 2018.

State Treasurer :
R : 62.46%

Secretary of State :
R : 59.41%

State Auditor :
R : 60.28%

House of Representatives :
R : 61.10%

Senate :
R : 52.38%


I would also highlight the fact that in every of these races the republican candidate did better in Hamilton county than statewide (or districtwide for the US House)

Most people don't pay attention to lower-level row offices.  Plus, the candidates that did run in those races weren't particularly strong.

It's not really the question. These numbers show that Hamilton County is still a very conservative county and that contrary to a common idea on this forum it won't vote (significantly) more D than the state as whole. If Trump is really winning Hamilton county with ''only'' 53% of the vote then it's very unlikely that he is winning more than 54% in the state as whole and in a such scenario he would be destroyed at the national level. So yeah, Trump will likely win 57% to 59% of the vote in Hamilton County.


Now I agree with you on the fact that few people are paying attention to lower lever row-offices and that it's entirely possible that some people who don't like Trump are still voting R downballot, but the idea that ''Trump can't win more 52% in Hamilton because Braun won 52%'' is dumb as well, Braun is a good candidate but he was a running against a moderate, incumbent Senator, during a very D year, By highligting these numbers I just wanted to point the fact that 52% is more the R floor in this county that the ceilling.

This kind of thinking is due to 2 kinda lazy assumptions that many people are confident in:

1. The current trend of a location will continue and at the same velocity
2. 2018 midterms were a good indicator of what 2020 will be like

With an incumbent, we're not likely to see nearly as strong of trends as we did with the open election, this was true in 2004 and 2012 and it's very likely be true in 2020 as well. We went from Romney to Trump which is pretty significant. Going from Trump to Trump is not.

I agree, 2016 was already to some extent a realignment election, so it’s very unlikely that trend which occurred between 2012 and 2016 will be reproduced with the same intensity between 2016 and 2020