Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020

[Mr. Smith]

If this is what he does, it means just a little less time spent in Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, and Texas. (I mean also, WI/MI/PA too, but that'd be so anti-climactic).

[redjohn]

Putting resources in MN makes sense. It appears now that MN is likely going Democratic again, but things can change and it'll probably be a little closer there than most of us anticipate.

New Mexico, on the other hand, isn't going atlas blue unless Trump wins the popular vote by ~4 points nationwide, which won't happen even if the disastrous Biden is nominated. Trump's realistic ceiling there is probably around 43%, which just isn't a winnable result even under huge third party circumstances. The 2016 election had the third party stars align for Republicans in NM, and still Dems won by over 8 points.

2004 will be the last time Republicans won New Mexico on the Prez level for a long time.

New Hampshire is winnable for Trump, for sure. Nevada is a little more of a stretch but maybe, mayyyybe possible if everything goes right for him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's campaign is apparently deluded enough to think they have a chance in every state they lost by single digits. I would encourage them to do so. They should spread themselves as thin as possible and contest Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia too while they're at it. But why stop there? Trump's re-election is guaranteed right? He should pursue a strategy of only contesting the Clinton states. Really go for that 50 state landslide. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Safe R!

Actual take: I'm completely serious about how he should waste his time and resources in Clinton states, but what a stupid tactic! Contest a state that would have gone for Clinton by double digits if it wasn't for Gary Johnson. Any rational incumbent President should know better, of course Trump, and his campaign by extension, aren't rational. Obama played defense in 2012, and it paid off. But I think I'm seeing the reasoning now: maybe since his archenemy, Obama did that; Trump has no choice but to compulsively do the opposite. To him, the universe commands it! Again, I welcome it.

[MT Treasurer]

The real reason he’s apparently so fixated on MN is not because of its ten electoral votes or because the state is more winnable than NH/ME (it really isn’t) but because of what in 2020 will be a 44-year streak of supporting Democratic candidates for president, i.e. the longest streak of consecutive Democratic wins of any state in the country. It’s the same reason Bill Clinton was obsessed with winning AZ in 1996, back when the state had the same 44-year streak of supporting one party for president (the Republicans). It’s just an ego boost, not some sign of a genius strategy.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004 and deserve to lose in a landslide. The only states he could flip in an absolute best-case scenario are NH, ME, and maybe MN, and that’s it.

Agreed BUT I think NM would flip before CO and VA

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Trump could flip NH/ME/MN/NV in 2020, but it's very unlikely given his current approvals and polling numbers. NM is a total waste of time.

[538Electoral]

Clinton states that could realistically go for Trump (In my opinion)

-Nevada
-Colorado
-New Mexico
-Minnesota
-Virginia
-New Hampshire
-Maine

All were within 10% last time.

Trump's biggest possible electoral vote: 356

[McGarnagle]

Clinton states that could realistically go for Trump (In my opinion)

-Nevada
-Colorado
-New Mexico
-Minnesota
-Virginia
-New Hampshire
-Maine

All were within 10% last time.

Trump's biggest possible electoral vote: 356

Nevada - Probably not, but not impossible
Colorado - Nope
New Mexico - Nope
Minnesota - Nope, not anymore
Virginia - Pretty unlikely with the whole Charlottesville thing
New Hampshire - Doubtful, especially if Sanders or Warren is nominated
Maine - Not at-large or CD1, maybe CD2

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

He should spend $100 mil in California. Put it all in ads. He really has a shot there!

I actually created an account at FreeRepublic in 2004 to try to convince them after some poll had Kerry up only 4 points or so. I was instantly banned.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

MN is a good target (even if I doubt he will win it), besides it could help republicans to hold the state senate. NV and NH are probably fools gold.

Trump should definitely campaign in Maine (could help Collins as well), Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire. Colorado couldn't hurt as well. Southern Virginia as well. And New Mexico isn't bad either, mostly targetting Hispanics. Trump needs to do better among Hispanics. He should also campaign in WI, MI, PA, TX (Hispanics also), FL, NC, GA, AZ, NE-1 (the city and suburbs), OH and IA. And if possible in KS as well.

[Minnesota Mike]

Not all the blue states are long shots like New Mexico. While the GOP hasn’t won Minnesota since Richard Nixon took the state during his landslide victory in 1972, Trump lost to Clinton there in 2016 by a slim 1.5 percentage points. The Trump campaign hired a full-time state director in June and saw an uptick in Republican voter registrations in recent months.

Minnesota does not have Party Registration.

[Nightcore Nationalist]

NM is definitely a waste of time, as is VA.  He should help out Cory Gardener in Colorado since I think he has a chance if Hick is the nominee.

Hot take: Trump has better odds in NV (and certainly NH/Maine ATL) then Minnesota.  But all of these light blue states should take a backseat to defending the "big five" of the rust belt+AZ/FL.

[SInNYC]

I think that one thing missing about all the critics of his MN strategy is that a MN strategy gets you WI even if it fails. Campaigning in St, Paul and Duluth also gets you a bunch of WI voters from legacy D areas. I felt this in 2016 too when people were laughing at Trump for final weekend rallies in the Twin Cities.

Sorry cheeseheads, but a decent chunk of your state is just a MN suburb

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Again, Warren doesnt need any of the red states to win, like TX, FL or AZ, only need to reaffirm WI, MI and PA. The election; come 2020 will be won by a Dem, since the wall, Trump is trying to finish Dubya's wall, doesnt benefit the blue states.

But red states do want Trump to focus more on domestic spending

[MT Treasurer]

Virginia - Pretty unlikely with the whole Charlottesville thing
Maine - Not at-large or CD1, maybe CD2

What even is this? It’s not 2004 anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA, wont flip, but it will be competetive, the closest state is still WI