Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020

[Barack Oganja]

Nonetheless, Trump’s campaign is betting it can win in New Mexico. Flush with cash, the campaign is planning to announce a state director and additional ground staff there in the coming weeks, a campaign official tells TIME. Internal campaign data has convinced Trump’s political advisors they can energize a slice of the state’s Hispanic voters to vote for Trump in 2020 by emphasizing Trump’s handling of the economy, border security and his trade confrontation with China. According to U.S. Census data, 49.1 percent of New Mexico’s residents identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino.

The move is part of a series of bets Trump is making to win states that went for Clinton in 2016. Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House advisor Jared Kushner says that voter data has convinced the reelection effort to fund robust field operations in a much larger number of states than in 2016. “I can see us very aggressively playing in 18 swing states,” Jared Kushner tells TIME, adding that in his view, the 2016 Trump campaign “seriously played” in about 11 swing states.

Not all the blue states are long shots like New Mexico. While the GOP hasn’t won Minnesota since Richard Nixon took the state during his landslide victory in 1972, Trump lost to Clinton there in 2016 by a slim 1.5 percentage points. The Trump campaign hired a full-time state director in June and saw an uptick in Republican voter registrations in recent months.

The Trump campaign is also building out substantial ground operations in New Hampshire, where Trump lost by less than 1%, and Nevada, where Trump trailed Clinton by 2.4%. In both states, Trump was on the ticket with Senate candidates, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Joe Heck in Nevada, who distanced themselves from Trump. The Trump campaign and the RNC have told local party officials in those states they hope more unified support for Trump could help increase Republican turnout and tip those states for Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-new-math-inside-the-plan-to-flip-blue-states-in-2020/ar-AAH1IzQ?li=BBnb7Kz

Good or bad strategy?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nonetheless, Trump’s campaign is betting it can win in New Mexico. Flush with cash, the campaign is planning to announce a state director and additional ground staff there in the coming weeks, a campaign official tells TIME. Internal campaign data has convinced Trump’s political advisors they can energize a slice of the state’s Hispanic voters to vote for Trump in 2020 by emphasizing Trump’s handling of the economy, border security and his trade confrontation with China. According to U.S. Census data, 49.1 percent of New Mexico’s residents identify themselves as Hispanic or Latino.

The move is part of a series of bets Trump is making to win states that went for Clinton in 2016. Trump’s son-in-law and senior White House advisor Jared Kushner says that voter data has convinced the reelection effort to fund robust field operations in a much larger number of states than in 2016. “I can see us very aggressively playing in 18 swing states,” Jared Kushner tells TIME, adding that in his view, the 2016 Trump campaign “seriously played” in about 11 swing states.

Not all the blue states are long shots like New Mexico. While the GOP hasn’t won Minnesota since Richard Nixon took the state during his landslide victory in 1972, Trump lost to Clinton there in 2016 by a slim 1.5 percentage points. The Trump campaign hired a full-time state director in June and saw an uptick in Republican voter registrations in recent months.

The Trump campaign is also building out substantial ground operations in New Hampshire, where Trump lost by less than 1%, and Nevada, where Trump trailed Clinton by 2.4%. In both states, Trump was on the ticket with Senate candidates, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire and Joe Heck in Nevada, who distanced themselves from Trump. The Trump campaign and the RNC have told local party officials in those states they hope more unified support for Trump could help increase Republican turnout and tip those states for Trump.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trumps-new-math-inside-the-plan-to-flip-blue-states-in-2020/ar-AAH1IzQ?li=BBnb7Kz

Good or bad strategy?

I think it's unlikely to succeed, but it's a good strategy to maximize the chances of victory by expanding the playing field to those states where there's at least a small chance of success.  It's not like they're trying for California or New York.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

He flipped Pennsylvania and Michigan, which hadn't gone Republican since 1988, and Wisconsin, which hadn't gone Republican since 1984. I think the answer is obvious - why not? It should be obvious that Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada are winnable.

Trump is an unorthodox genius who really knows how to win, as shown by the fact that he won the highest office in the world.

[Xing]

If I were the Democratic candidate, I'd be thrilled to hear that Trump is spending time and money in New Mexico, instead of states which he actually has a chance of winning.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump is an unorthodox genius who really knows how to win, as shown by the fact that he won the highest office in the world.

No. American voters are just stupid.

[John Dule]

If Trump wasn't so well-funded, I'd say this was a dumb strategy. But he's got money to burn, and for a candidate who won by such a razor-thin margin, it makes sense to spread your resources around to give yourself more paths to 270. I don't personally think New Mexico even qualifies as a swing state these days, but Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Nevada are all prime targets.

[Frenchrepublican]

MN is a good target (even if I doubt he will win it), besides it could help republicans to hold the state senate. NV and NH are probably fools gold.

[Politician]

Trump could flip NH/ME/MN/NV in 2020, but it's very unlikely given his current approvals and polling numbers. NM is a total waste of time.

[IceSpear]

I hope he spends lots and lots of time/effort/money in a safe D state like New Mexico.

As for the others, they'd just be gravy in a scenario where he's already headed for re-election regardless.

[MT Treasurer]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004 and deserve to lose in a landslide. The only states he could flip in an absolute best-case scenario are NH, ME, and maybe MN, and that’s it.

[Skye]

I really have no idea why the Trump camp is so obsessed with NM. IMO Trump is more likely than not going to lose the popular vote again, and even if he were to win it, the state wouldn't be competitive unless he's winning by a big margin.

Also, I remember a few months ago the campaign was considering targeting Oregon as well. I wonder if they'll actually do it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TRUMP has done very well on wall, trade and overseas peace. He falls down on domestics: tax reform, middle class tax cuts, retirement pensions and security.

The people are pleading with this president as well as what happened to Dubya, get your own house in order, domestically, thats why Dems will win all 279 blue wall

[Alben Barkley]

Trump is an unorthodox genius who really knows how to win, as shown by the fact that he won the highest office in the world.

No. American voters are just stupid.

That’s not fair since most of us didn’t vote for him.

Seriously though, Trump won by a combination of cheating, dumb luck, old school snake oil con man tactics, and exploiting fear-mongering/race-baiting in a polarized nation. Any crass and conscienceless idiot who saw the opportunity could have done that. He just happened to be the first and richest.

[swf541]

The MN, NV and NH choices make sense, NM just makes 0 sense

[IceSpear]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004

I never knew Politician was a Trump advisor. I guess he really does hire only the best people.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004

I never knew Politician was a Trump advisor. I guess he really does hire only the best people.

Can you please stop calling me out by name and harassing me?

You literally just tried mocking “trend worshippers” including IceSpear just today

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Are you well dude? Because the kind of language you just used signals that something must be really bothering you or you’re really stressed if you’re letting people on a website get under your skin like that

[MT Treasurer]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004

I never knew Politician was a Trump advisor. I guess he really does hire only the best people.

Surprised they’re not contesting Virginia, lol. Or maybe they are? Who the hell even knows at this point.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Are you well dude? Because the kind of language you just used signals that something must be really bothering you or you’re really stressed if you’re letting people on a website get under your skin like that

They even keep reporting our posts en masse. Sad!

I can take being called retarded, that doesn’t bother me. I just think it might be beneficial to him if he just takes a break for a while from this site and cleared his head

[IceSpear]

If he or his genius advisors seriously believe that NM (or even NV, for that matter) is more likely to flip than ME, they’re stuck in 2004

I never knew Politician was a Trump advisor. I guess he really does hire only the best people.

Can you please stop calling me out by name and harassing me?

"Harassing"? lol

Also, I'm pretty sure you've mentioned me far more than I've mentioned you in the past few weeks.

Anyway, it's not that serious, chillax bro.

[RaphaelDLG]

NM is a waste of money, but otherwise this strategy makes a lot of sense.

Regardless, the lion's share of money should be spent in EV-rich states that Trump needs to win or would put him very close to winning like FL, PA, WI, OH, GA, MI, TX.

[Kyng]

Yeah, NM is a waste of time. It's not going to be part of any "path to 270" for Trump: it'll only be competitive if he's already winning comfortably nationwide.

States like MN and NH make sense, though. They could save him if, for whatever reason, he collapses in the Sun Belt.

But, regardless of whether it's a 'good strategy' or a 'bad strategy', it's the kind of strategy that I'd personally like to see. I want both sides to try and expand the map - if nothing else, so that more states matter, and more people's voices matter.

[Devout Centrist]

He should spend $100 mil in California. Put it all in ads. He really has a shot there!

[morgankingsley]

Trump could flip NH/ME/MN/NV in 2020, but it's very unlikely given his current approvals and polling numbers. NM is a total waste of time.

Yeah New Mexico is just going to be not only a waste of time, but of money. Minnesota and New Hampshire could work if he slightly expanded his base or drove higher turn out of his base, with Nevada and Maine being possible if he increases his approval ratings

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

As for the article, NH and maybe NV are the only ones listed that are justifiable, but I think NH gets an outsize share of attention as it is. It’s merely 4 Electoral Votes and in most scenarios won’t be decisive