Will Arnold be re-elected?

[The Duke]

Rocket is basically right that Arnold has little backing among the fundies.

But the fundies didn't vote for him in 2003 either, they voted for McClintock.

The dynamics of the campaign will bring a lot of the fundies into Arnold's camp.  Its easier to run agaisnt Steve Westly than it is to run against teachers and nurses.  Teachers and nurses won't scare the base into the voting booth.  The serious possibility that a Democrat could become Governor and the legislature would be unrestraiend will do exactly that.

I also think it should be pointed out that nationally, Bush's unpopularity has hurt Republicans.  I've said I don't think Bush will ever be Reagan popular again, but I think he can and will recover enough that he won't be a liability for Republican candidates.  Arnold was hurt by Bush.  They ran TV ads saying California would become Texas is Prop 77 passed.  The state gets cut up and redistricted, and at the end of the ad the state looks like Texas.

Oooh, Texas.  Bad Texas, very bad Texas.

If Bush is at 50% Arnold will not have to deal with that albatross President of ours.  That will help substantially.

I think a lot of people are forgetting that Bush was in a trough when Arnold started to be less popular and I think people are forgetting that the dynamics of a campaign are different than the dynamics of a regular news environment.