Will Arnold be re-elected?
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  Will Arnold be re-elected?
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Poll
Question: Will Arnold be re-elected?
#1
yes
 
#2
no
 
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Total Voters: 37

Author Topic: Will Arnold be re-elected?  (Read 2479 times)
they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« on: December 19, 2005, 01:42:35 PM »

No, and I plan to even bet on that.

But I, back in 2003 along with most other people, assumed he'd be a shoo-in for reelection in 2006 unfortunately with his margin of victory. DCPoliticalReport had the race as a likely Democratic pickup, and I thought that was far too optimistic. Turns out DCPR had forsight no one else did.

Hopefully people learn their lesson and this prevents people from electing moron Hollywood actors who have no business in government from now on.
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phk
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« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2005, 01:46:42 PM »

He will have a tough-re-election.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #2 on: December 19, 2005, 01:51:52 PM »

I give him a 33% chance of reelection right now.   Could change either way.
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jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
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« Reply #3 on: December 19, 2005, 04:07:25 PM »

I don't think so, but I do think he will do a lot better than expected.  Once he works his way into the media in the midst of the campaign season he'll make it a close race.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4 on: December 19, 2005, 04:09:01 PM »

The odds are against him, but it's not impossible.
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nini2287
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« Reply #5 on: December 19, 2005, 04:21:08 PM »

No, but I wouldn't surprised if he was.
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ian
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« Reply #6 on: December 19, 2005, 04:29:38 PM »

I can't say one way or another.  In my gubernatorial predictions, I gave Arnold a loss, but, honestly, it could go either way.
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TomC
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« Reply #7 on: December 19, 2005, 04:43:42 PM »

Arnold would do better to quit the GOP and run as an independent.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #8 on: December 19, 2005, 04:45:51 PM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............oh youre serious. no.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #9 on: December 19, 2005, 04:46:04 PM »

No

But I'd vote for him.
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Kevin
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2005, 05:01:45 PM »

I have a good feeling he will win reelection.
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Yates
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« Reply #11 on: December 19, 2005, 05:05:15 PM »

I have a good feeling he will win reelection.

If he is against Angelides, I feel the same way.  Westly would give him a run for his money.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #12 on: December 19, 2005, 05:13:16 PM »

It seems unlikely, but he might still turn the tables. While he seems like the kind of guy who does not give up and can fight his way back against tough odds, being a highly unpopular incumbent in a bad year for his party, running for reelection in a state that is rather Democratic is a very bad deal.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #13 on: December 19, 2005, 05:57:49 PM »

hopefully, although California is so ed up it really doesn't matter who gets elected.  Arnold would be the best choice.
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phk
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« Reply #14 on: December 19, 2005, 09:52:31 PM »

What is hurting Arnold right now is Fresno's mayor, Alan Autry, who is surprisingly related to Cosmo Kramer's mother? Well anyway, this guy is a major anti-Arnold Republican from a region (San Joaquin) that is critical for Republicans.

He manages decent support from the wealthy-trendy-Country Club Republicans; but this support doesn't resonate all that well with the Bible-Belt conservatives we have as well.

If they fail to rally the GOP base here, they wont win. Principally the reason why Arnold was in my home-town every month before his special election debacle.

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Q
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« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2005, 01:50:42 AM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............oh youre serious. no.

He didn't kill anyone, and you'd be hard pressed to find many people who agree with you on this, if that's the basis for your feelings here.
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The Duke
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« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2005, 02:56:57 AM »

Rocket is basically right that Arnold has little backing among the fundies.

But the fundies didn't vote for him in 2003 either, they voted for McClintock.

The dynamics of the campaign will bring a lot of the fundies into Arnold's camp.  Its easier to run agaisnt Steve Westly than it is to run against teachers and nurses.  Teachers and nurses won't scare the base into the voting booth.  The serious possibility that a Democrat could become Governor and the legislature would be unrestraiend will do exactly that.

I also think it should be pointed out that nationally, Bush's unpopularity has hurt Republicans.  I've said I don't think Bush will ever be Reagan popular again, but I think he can and will recover enough that he won't be a liability for Republican candidates.  Arnold was hurt by Bush.  They ran TV ads saying California would become Texas is Prop 77 passed.  The state gets cut up and redistricted, and at the end of the ad the state looks like Texas.

Oooh, Texas.  Bad Texas, very bad Texas.

If Bush is at 50% Arnold will not have to deal with that albatross President of ours.  That will help substantially.

I think a lot of people are forgetting that Bush was in a trough when Arnold started to be less popular and I think people are forgetting that the dynamics of a campaign are different than the dynamics of a regular news environment.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2005, 11:06:23 AM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............oh youre serious. no.

He didn't kill anyone, and you'd be hard pressed to find many people who agree with you on this, if that's the basis for your feelings here.
Actually, i was focusing on his low approval ratings, and his stong opponents. Polls dont look good for Arnold and I really dont believe California is going to let him stay. (But he is a murderer Wink)
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phk
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« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2005, 12:57:52 PM »

Rocket is basically right that Arnold has little backing among the fundies.

But the fundies didn't vote for him in 2003 either, they voted for McClintock.

Well he had decent support from them in the San Joaquin Valley in 2003.

But they weren't ready to back props 77/78 for some reason..
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GOP = Terrorists
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« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2005, 08:03:12 PM »

Only possible if it is the bloodiest Democratic primary ever.
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Q
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« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2005, 08:58:15 PM »

hahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.............oh youre serious. no.
He didn't kill anyone, and you'd be hard pressed to find many people who agree with you on this, if that's the basis for your feelings here.
Actually, i was focusing on his low approval ratings, and his stong opponents. Polls dont look good for Arnold and I really dont believe California is going to let him stay. (But he is a murderer Wink)

Bad Governor: Yes.  Murderer: No.  At least we can agree on 1 of the 2.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #21 on: December 21, 2005, 01:30:27 AM »

Arnold was hurt by Bush.  They ran TV ads saying California would become Texas is Prop 77 passed.  The state gets cut up and redistricted, and at the end of the ad the state looks like Texas.

Oooh, Texas.  Bad Texas, very bad Texas.


Thats how Democrats feel when your side points to Massachusetts as some kind of foreign-liberal-extremist place, which it certainly isn't.


He manages decent support from the wealthy-trendy-Country Club Republicans; but this support doesn't resonate all that well with the Bible-Belt conservatives we have as well.


You have Bible-Belt conservatives in California? That sucks. What is their story? Are they as extreme as other bible-belt types?
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #22 on: December 21, 2005, 01:37:28 AM »


He manages decent support from the wealthy-trendy-Country Club Republicans; but this support doesn't resonate all that well with the Bible-Belt conservatives we have as well.


You have Bible-Belt conservatives in California? That sucks. What is their story? Are they as extreme as other bible-belt types?

Oh they're everywhere. We have them in Minnesota too (not in the rural parts as you would think, but rather the outer suburbs). They're just as extreme as the Bible Belt ones, it's just that they aren't the majority, so they have nowhere near as much influence and aren't much of a threat. Although they frequently do ridiculous things that embarass the Minnesota GOP. I imagine the situation in California is pretty much the same.
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Cubby
Pim Fortuyn
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« Reply #23 on: December 21, 2005, 02:08:11 AM »


He manages decent support from the wealthy-trendy-Country Club Republicans; but this support doesn't resonate all that well with the Bible-Belt conservatives we have as well.


You have Bible-Belt conservatives in California? That sucks. What is their story? Are they as extreme as other bible-belt types?

Oh they're everywhere. We have them in Minnesota too (not in the rural parts as you would think, but rather the outer suburbs). They're just as extreme as the Bible Belt ones, it's just that they aren't the majority, so they have nowhere near as much influence and aren't much of a threat. Although they frequently do ridiculous things that embarass the Minnesota GOP. I imagine the situation in California is pretty much the same.

I just hope the ones in Minnesota aren't powerful enough to get Mark Kennedy elected. To have a Minnesota rep. support the Federal Marriage Amendment is outrageous.
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phk
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« Reply #24 on: December 21, 2005, 02:51:41 AM »


He manages decent support from the wealthy-trendy-Country Club Republicans; but this support doesn't resonate all that well with the Bible-Belt conservatives we have as well.


You have Bible-Belt conservatives in California? That sucks. What is their story? Are they as extreme as other bible-belt types?
[/quote]

1) Yes
2) Grapes of Wrath, most of the people I'm talking about are descendents of Oklahoman/Arkansas dust bowl refugees during the Great Depression.
3) My hometown; Fresno,CA; is where the Republican counterpart to Democratic Underground famously known as FreeRepublic is based out of.
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