ABC/WaPo national poll: Biden 27% Sanders 19% Warren 17% Harris 7%

[Mr. Morden]

ABC/WaPo national poll, conducted Sept. 2-5:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/warren-gains-harris-slips-room-movement-vast/story?id=65414558

Biden 27%
Sanders 19%
Warren 17%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 1%
de Blasio 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Ryan, Steyer, Williamson 0%

[Mr. Morden]

If you narrow it to registered voters, then it’s:
Biden 29%
Sanders 19%
Warren 18%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Booker 1%
de Blasio 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Ryan, Williamson 0%

So if the DNC counts the RV numbers, then this is a qualifying poll for Gabbard.  Otherwise, it isn’t.

[Zaybay]

This could be the 3rd poll for Gabbard, but apparently there is a dispute:

https://twitter.com/TrackerDebate/status/1170551508032786432

[ShamDam]

If the DNC raises the next threshold to 3% it’s pretty easy to see Yang hitting it at this point. Meanwhile Booker and Klobuchar and Castro are probably next on the chopping block. Maybe Beto too.

[The Mikado]

If the DNC raises the next threshold to 3% it’s pretty easy to see Yang hitting it at this point. Meanwhile Booker and Klobuchar and Castro are probably next on the chopping block. Maybe Beto too.

If the threshold is 3% with the cutoff being, say, 3 polls, I think Yang, Beto, and Booker all make it. They're always at 2 or 3, and they'll hit enough 3s to make it.

Klobuchar and Castro will be toast, though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If the DNC raises the next threshold to 3% it’s pretty easy to see Yang hitting it at this point. Meanwhile Booker and Klobuchar and Castro are probably next on the chopping block. Maybe Beto too.

Klobuchar and Castro shouldn't be in it anyway, they're not contributing much.

Booker I think survives.  He has only gone up and I've seen him regularly at 4-5%.

Yang is going to be the Ron Paul 2008 of this cycle and hang around in the low single digits while the internet frantically tries to concoct scenarios to get him convention delegates.

Beto I think is waiting to see if Biden falls apart, when he can be the sane, moderate alternative the party coalesces around.

[IceSpear]

If the DNC raises the next threshold to 3% it’s pretty easy to see Yang hitting it at this point. Meanwhile Booker and Klobuchar and Castro are probably next on the chopping block. Maybe Beto too.

If the threshold is 3% with the cutoff being, say, 3 polls, I think Yang, Beto, and Booker all make it. They're always at 2 or 3, and they'll hit enough 3s to make it.

Klobuchar and Castro will be toast, though.

Klobuchar does get 3% or more in most Iowa polls. I'm not an expert on the DNC's byzantine debate poll rules, but wouldn't that get her a spot?

[The Mikado]

If the DNC raises the next threshold to 3% it’s pretty easy to see Yang hitting it at this point. Meanwhile Booker and Klobuchar and Castro are probably next on the chopping block. Maybe Beto too.

If the threshold is 3% with the cutoff being, say, 3 polls, I think Yang, Beto, and Booker all make it. They're always at 2 or 3, and they'll hit enough 3s to make it.

Klobuchar and Castro will be toast, though.

Klobuchar does get 3% or more in most Iowa polls. I'm not an expert on the DNC's byzantine debate poll rules, but wouldn't that get her a spot?

Iowa polls count, yeah, but she couldn't submit multiple polls by the same sponsor. She'd need to hope that 3 or 4 or however many different pollsters poll Iowa and that she hits 3% every time.

EDIT: For example, if the current debate had a cutoff of 3% rather than 2%, Klobuchar would only have 3 qualifying polls in the window, 2 from Iowa and 1 national, and thus wouldn't get on the stage.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Change from last poll?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Change from last poll?

Biden (-2%)
Sanders (-4%)
Warren (+6%)
Harris (-4%)
Buttigieg (nc)
Beto (+1%)
Yang (+2%)
Booker (+1%)
Gabbard (+2%)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Change from last poll?

Biden (-2%)
Sanders (-4%)
Warren (+6%)
Harris (-4%)
Buttigieg (nc)
Beto (+1%)
Yang (+2%)
Booker (+1%)
Gabbard (+2%)

Makes sense.

[Tender Branson]

The DNC will certainly find ways again to keep Gabbard out, like they did with Bullock.

By using the meaningless adult survey, instead of the more important registered voter sample.

[LeBron]

The DNC will certainly find ways again to keep Gabbard out, like they did with Bullock.

By using the meaningless adult survey, instead of the more important registered voter sample.

And like they tried to do with Yang.

[BundouYMB]

Changes from the last ABC/WaPo poll in July (registered voters):

Biden 29 (=)
Sanders 19 (-4)
Warren 18 (+7)
Harris 7 (-4)
Buttigieg 4 (=)
O'Rourke 3 (+1)
Yang 3 (+2)
Gabbard 2 (+1)
Klobuchar 2 (=)
Booker 1 (=)
de Blasio 1 (+1)
Steyer 1 (+1)

[Comrade Funk]

Warren's steady rise continues

[SN2903]

DNC will exclude Gabbard from October debate

[ElectionsGuy]

Unbelievable if they use adults over registered voters to keep Tulsi out.

[SN2903]

Gabbard is saying it's a qualifying poll.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Favorable ratings among Democrats:

Bernie 82-12
Biden 79-14
Warren 74-11
Harris 63-16
Buttigieg 53-12
Trump 8-89

[The Other Castro]

Gabbard is saying it's a qualifying poll.

She can say whatever she wants, it’s not going to change it

[SN2903]

Gabbard is saying it's a qualifying poll.

She can say whatever she wants, it’s not going to change it

Wikipedia has 3 polls now. Maybe she confirmed it with the DNC?

[Peter Moon]

I think that each poll which puts the lower candidates below 10% will be one more in a line which will slowly kill momentum for that candidate. I think that the next person to drop will either be deBlasio or one of the ones at 0.1-9%.