For how long has all of urban America been Democratic? (user search)
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  For how long has all of urban America been Democratic? (search mode)
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Author Topic: For how long has all of urban America been Democratic?  (Read 3594 times)
slothdem
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Posts: 529


« on: July 22, 2020, 05:27:09 PM »


Perhaps either 1988 or 1992? Looking back at prior elections, I know that (or can guess) these major cities last voted Republican in these years:

1. New York City, Boston, St. Louis (MO), St. Paul (MN)-1924 for Coolidge.
2. Detroit-1928 for Hoover.
3. Philadelphia-1932 for Hoover.
4. Chicago, Baltimore, Los Angeles (?), Minneapolis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, San Francisco-1956 for Eisenhower.
5. Portland (OR)-1960 for Nixon.
6. Atlanta, New Orleans, Durham (NC)-1972 for Nixon.
7. Denver-1980 for Reagan.
8. Austin-1984 for Reagan (?).

These are ones that come to mind currently.


I am not sure that Atlanta voted for Nixon.

In 1972, Atlanta had approximately 480,000 inhabitants. Fulton County had approximately 600,000 inhabitants. Considering that a small part of Atlanta lies in DeKalb County, we can say that in 1972 Atlanta proper comprised roughly 3/4 of the population (and of the votes) in Fulton County.
Fulton had 170,000 votes that year, and Nixon won it by 22,000 votes (a 13% margin). Considering that Atlanta already had a majority-Black population and that Nixon broke 82% in all of the nearby counties of Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, Fayette and Clayton, I think it is a fair assumption that Nixon won the non-Atlanta part of Fulton by a 60-point margin or so. As I said before, the non-Atlanta part of Fulton also likely comprised something like one quarter of the vote. 1/4 * 170,000 * 60% = 25,500. This rough calculation gives Nixon a larger margin in the non-Atlanta part of Fulton than in total Fulton, or in other words would have McGovern winning Atlanta proper. Well, there is the DeKalb part of Atlanta, but it is small and imagining that it voted like the rest of the city is both the easiest thing to do and some that would explain why Nixon stopped short of 80% in DeKalb County.


Of course this is very rough, but it is the best I can with what I can find on the Internet and at least shows that there is a strong possibility that Atlanta voted Democratic in 1972.

I believe you are correct about McGovern narrowly carrying Atlanta in 1972. I also think if that is the case, that Atlanta is very likely the only large city that has never been carried by a Republican.
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