Nutter wins Bolivia Election

[ag]

Latin America's glorious left-wing trend continues! Hopefully Obrador extends it to Mexico next year.

God forbid! Some of us actually live in Mexico!

AMLO is actually despised by the traditional Mexican left - he is a common PRI goon, who had a personality clash with the local party organization in Tabasco and decided that then newly-created PRD presented better opportunities. Despite his rants about the PRI, most of his closest aids were active in that party until quite recently. You can imagine the resentment of the traditional PRD types: it's not for nothing that the old man Cardenas makes sure that his whispered "endorsements" of AMLO sound as if they've been extracted under duress. In fact, PAN's Calderon, sensing a vulnerability here, has been sending not-too-subtle (and fairly successful, for a "rightwinger") feelers to some of the traditional PRD supporters.

In fact, he was anything but a leftist mayor of the capital city, unless you believe that freezing public transit projects in favor of highway construction is somehow "leftist".  His name is closely associated with exactly one major social program (a modest pension program for those over 70), which is dwarfed by the social programs introduced by the "rightist" panista federal government (housing subsidies for the poor, national insurance, etc.). Pretty much all other social handouts in the city have been very transparent wages: "you'd get this and that if and only if you are recorded as present at such and such rallies I organize".

The main problem with AMLO is not that he is leftist (I happen to know his Economics guru - he is well-educated and moderately competent, so I don't expect much of a change in this direction under him). The main problems are that he is a) horrendously corrupt, even by Mexican standards (though not for a personal gain - he is monkishly ascetic - but achieving political gains requires a lot of money, the result being that all his closest aides and their grandmothers have been implicated in nasty things left and right, though they keep their mouths shut about the boss) and b) probably, not entirely mentally healthy (he does exhibit a likely case of paranoia). Except for Obrador's personal ascetisism and paranoia , there is not much difference between him and PRI's Madrazo: both "twins" are ruthless old-time PRI goons from Tabasco. Both run on a de facto platform of "Corruption and Ruthlessness, masked as National-Socialism for Personal Benefit". If you care at all about Mexico, you wouldn't want any of them in power.

[Cubby]

Latin America's glorious left-wing trend continues! Hopefully Obrador extends it to Mexico next year.

God forbid! Some of us actually live in Mexico!

AMLO is actually despised by the traditional Mexican left - he is a common PRI goon, who had a personality clash with the local party organization in Tabasco and decided that then newly-created PRD presented better opportunities. Despite his rants about the PRI, most of his closest aids were active in that party until quite recently. You can imagine the resentment of the traditional PRD types: it's not for nothing that the old man Cardenas makes sure that his whispered "endorsements" of AMLO sound as if they've been extracted under duress. In fact, PAN's Calderon, sensing a vulnerability here, has been sending not-too-subtle (and fairly successful, for a "rightwinger") feelers to some of the traditional PRD supporters.

In fact, he was anything but a leftist mayor of the capital city, unless you believe that freezing public transit projects in favor of highway construction is somehow "leftist".  His name is closely associated with exactly one major social program (a modest pension program for those over 70), which is dwarfed by the social programs introduced by the "rightist" panista federal government (housing subsidies for the poor, national insurance, etc.). Pretty much all other social handouts in the city have been very transparent wages: "you'd get this and that if and only if you are recorded as present at such and such rallies I organize".

The main problem with AMLO is not that he is leftist (I happen to know his Economics guru - he is well-educated and moderately competent, so I don't expect much of a change in this direction under him). The main problems are that he is a) horrendously corrupt, even by Mexican standards (though not for a personal gain - he is monkishly ascetic - but achieving political gains requires a lot of money, the result being that all his closest aides and their grandmothers have been implicated in nasty things left and right, though they keep their mouths shut about the boss) and b) probably, not entirely mentally healthy (he does exhibit a likely case of paranoia). Except for Obrador's personal ascetisism and paranoia , there is not much difference between him and PRI's Madrazo: both "twins" are ruthless old-time PRI goons from Tabasco. Both run on a de facto platform of "Corruption and Ruthlessness, masked as National-Socialism for Personal Benefit". If you care at all about Mexico, you wouldn't want any of them in power.

Well that dampened my enthusiasm. But if someone doesn't like Fox, and PRD/Obrador have the problems you mentioned, then isn't the only alternative the PRI? Just b/c someone doesn't like PAN doesn't mean they support the return of decades of corruption. Is PRD a good choice for liberals besides Obrador?

[minionofmidas]

You make Obrador sound a lot like Helmut Kohl.

[minionofmidas]

"Boliviens neuer Präsident nennt Bush Terrorist

Im Wahlkampf hatte sich Boliviens künftiger Präsident schon als Alptraum der USA bezeichnet. Nach seinem Sieg betitelte der Sozialist Evo Morales Präsident George W. Bush nun als Terroristen.

Dubai - "Der einzige Terrorist der Welt, den ich kenne, ist Bush. Seine Militärinterventionen wie die im Irak, das ist Staatsterrorismus", sagte Morales dem arabischen TV-Sender Al-Dschasira. Es gebe einen Unterschied, ob Menschen für eine Sache kämpften oder als Terroristen agierten, sagte Morales. "Heute in Bolivien und Lateinamerika erheben die Menschen nicht mehr ihre Waffen gegen den Imperialismus, aber der Imperialismus erhebt seine Waffen gegen die Menschen, und zwar mit Militärinterventionen und Militärstützpunkten."

Im Wahlkampf hatte sich Morales als Alptraum für die USA bezeichnet. Unmittelbar nach seinem Sieg bei der Präsidentenwahl in Bolivien kündigte der Sozialist erste Schritte zur Verstaatlichung der Gasvorkommen des Landes an. Bolivien verfügt über Südamerikas zweitgrößte Gasvorkommen, 90 Prozent davon gehen in den Export.

Mit Morales steht erstmals in der Geschichte des Landes ein Indio vor der Übernahme der Präsidentschaft Boliviens. Das offizielle Endergebnis der Wahl wird erst in einigen Tagen feststehen. "

I'll just translate the choice bits...
Bolivia's New President calls Bush "Terrorist"

(...) "The only terrorist I know is Bush. His military interventions, such as in Iraq, that's state terrorism," Morales told Al-Jazeera. "Today in Bolivia and all over Latin America, the people are not fighting* imperialism anymore, but imperialism is still fighting against the people, using military interventions [the US hasn't intervened militarily in Latin America since Haiti, and Panama before that ] and military bases."

* as in, armed fighting. Can't be bothered with a stylish translation.

[ag]

You make Obrador sound a lot like Helmut Kohl.

I don't think Herr Kohl was going around claiming that every time anyone coughs in his direction it is a "criminal plot against my life", or am I wrong?

On the second count (money problems) - sure.  But the difference is that Mexican institutions are a lot more fragile than German, so they can't handle as much.

[ag]

Well that dampened my enthusiasm. But if someone doesn't like Fox, and PRD/Obrador have the problems you mentioned, then isn't the only alternative the PRI? Just b/c someone doesn't like PAN doesn't mean they support the return of decades of corruption. Is PRD a good choice for liberals besides Obrador?

PAN's Calderon is, actually, not much associated with Fox: in fact, Fox fired him from the government when he declared his intentions to run for presidency. Of course, he is simply a more traditional panista than Fox, so if you don't like PAN (in particular, their clericalism), you'd hate Calderon more than you'd hate Fox.  At the very least, he is the only candidate in this campaign who is personally clean (at least, nobody has dug anything on him so far, despite a lifetime in politics). I guess, it helps to be personally well-off  and popular among the equally well-off party rank-and-file: you don't have to steal neither for personal benefit, nor to acquire influence.  Personal disclosure: except for his Catholicism, he fits me ideologically quite nicely, so I won't have much of a problem voting for him (hey, I actually have a friend who has a friend who is a good friend of his - that's how things are done in Mexico!). His (and his party's) problem is: it's bad to be a lilly white organization in a country like Mexico.

As for "liberals", I prefer the international/European definition of the word (as in "neoliberal"), but I understand that you mean something else (I'd call it "leftist" - though, keep in mind, that  comparisons with the US are dangerous: even those you consider to be on the left wing of the Democratic party in the US would be highly uncomfortable among the Latin American left in terms of economic policies, and even some of the Republicans would find many of the Latin American leftists to be strangely socially conservative).  In this sense, the left wing of PRI and the bulk of PRD that derives from the early split in PRI are largely indistinguishable (and, given the demise of the "neo-liberal" wing of the PRI after the last time election loss, the left wing of PRI is the only part of that party that cares about policies and not just about getting rich through government). Further to the left are the elements of the PRD that come from the old Communist Party (like the current acting Mexico City mayor Encinas), but they generally keep their mouths shut, not to embarass their colleagues.  Still, you'd probably find the mainstream PRD (and their "moral leader" Lazaor Cardenas) the most appealing.  In fact, however much I dislike Cardenas's ideology, I wouldn't be afraid to trust him the country of 6 years: he is clean and responsible, and getting through major reforms in any direction in Mexico is impossible anyway.  But he has been outmaneuvred by AMLO and is not running this time (as I mentioned elsewhere, his endorsement of Obrador has been less than ringing: he is said to have told to his son, who happens to be the Governor of Michoacan State, to announce that supports the party candiddate - name not mentioned - and he might have repeated the same in a closed meeting of party activists; he's been careful not to say this in public).

A more interesting candidate could have been Jorge Casta?eda, Fox's former Foreign Secretary. His roots are on the left - the sane (anti-Castro) left - but he was trying to run as a modern candidate for thinking Mexicans (one of my best students in recent years has been active in his campaign). Unfortunately, rather than getting a minor party nomination (when he started, there was still time to create a midget party of his own), he persists in a quixotic campaign to force the Electoral Commission to register himself as an independent, even though the Electoral Code is explicit that only party candidates are allowed. In the process, his credibility has been badly hit, and  even if he is somehow registered, he won't matter.

[minionofmidas]

You make Obrador sound a lot like Helmut Kohl.

I don't think Herr Kohl was going around claiming that every time anyone coughs in his direction it is a "criminal plot against my life", or am I wrong?

No, his paranoia is of a more eccentric type. Anytime somebody breathes in his presence it is an attack on his role in future history books.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That was the point I was referring to ... especially the "doesn't spend any of his dirty money on himself, just uses it for a vast patronage machine" part.

[opebo]

I'll just translate the choice bits...
Bolivia's New President calls Bush "Terrorist"

(...) "The only terrorist I know is Bush. His military interventions, such as in Iraq, that's state terrorism," Morales told Al-Jazeera. "Today in Bolivia and all over Latin America, the people are not fighting* imperialism anymore, but imperialism is still fighting against the people, using military interventions [the US hasn't intervened militarily in Latin America since Haiti, and Panama before that ] and military bases."

* as in, armed fighting. Can't be bothered with a stylish translation.

Well, what is wrong with that statement?  It is quite accurate.

[minionofmidas]

It's not mentioned in polite conversation, Opebo.

[minionofmidas]

Just thought I'd check regional polarization levels.

By the way, the Electoral Commission says 33.4% of precincts have reported and 29.5% of all eligible voters have voted in them - we're either looking at an extremely high turnout, or the city precincts are much larger and have been counted first.

Morales is at 48.3%, the Conservative guy at 34.7%.

Chuquisaqua (214K registered voters) 51.7% - 35.9% with 48.0% of precincts reporting
La Paz (1.18 mio) 66.1 - 19.1 with 31.0
Cochabamba (649K) 47.1 - 39.9 with 32.1
Oruro (194K) 55.1 - 32.2 with 33.0
Potosí (282K) 49.7 - 36.7 with 23.9
Tarija (178K) 28.9 - 49.3 with 65.6
Santa Cruz (811K) 28.9 - 46.3 with 33.5
Beni (135K) 13.1 (coming third) - 56.3 with just 6.8
Pando (26K) 25.1 - 45.6 with 54.1

Update:
Morales at 54.1%, his opponent at 28.6%.
96.8% of precincts have reported, and 82.3% of registered voters have voted in them.

By province-
Chuquisaqua 55.1 - 31.4 (85.1)
La Paz 66.8 - 18.1 (99.5)
Cochabamba 64.8 - 25.1 (complete)
Oruro 62.6 - 25.0 (99.5)
Potosí 57.1 - 26.3 (95.9)
Tarija 31.6 - 45.3 (complete)
Santa Cruz 32.9 - 42.2 (95.7)
Beni 15.7 (third) - 47.4 (81.2). Second place goes to MNR, 30.0% (nationally fourth, 6.2%)
Pando 20.9 (third) - 45.2 (complete). Second place goes to Union Nacional, 23.2% (nationally third, 7.8%)

[YoMartin]

Evo Morales´ victory is certainly a victory for the left, but I would say the main issue there is not ideology but ethnicity. His (long and boring) speech the election night showed Evo is more about non-whites reaching power for the first time than for a particular set of policies. He already said he will include all ethnic groups (aymara, quechua and white) in his cabinet, because he realises there is no way he will stay in power without white-middle class support.

Regarding his policies, I think we will indeed become much more moderate than while he was in opposition. However, that could cause him trouble with the extreme left (and extreme anti-white quechua leader Quispe), so I think we will have a hard time running the country. Still, I think (right wing) Quiroga would have a much harder time. Sometimes only left parties can do (not so) left things in government...

[Kevin]

Can you say Noriega?

[minionofmidas]

Evo Morales´ victory is certainly a victory for the left, but I would say the main issue there is not ideology but ethnicity. His (long and boring) speech the election night showed Evo is more about non-whites reaching power for the first time than for a particular set of policies. He already said he will include all ethnic groups (aymara, quechua and white) in his cabinet, because he realises there is no way he will stay in power without white-middle class support.

Regarding his policies, I think we will indeed become much more moderate than while he was in opposition. However, that could cause him trouble with the extreme left (and extreme anti-white quechua leader Quispe), so I think we will have a hard time running the country. Still, I think (right wing) Quiroga would have a much harder time. Sometimes only left parties can do (not so) left things in government...

Yeah, Quispe is the extremist to Morales' moderate.
I noticed Quispe ran again but fared far far worse than before. He polled 8% last time, something like 1% this time.

[minionofmidas]

Can you say Noriega?

Yes, I can, but I don't see any connection.

Noriega was a US installed dictator who went haywire and was disposed by his masters.
Morales is a democratically elected president who came into office on a wave (among other things) of antiamerican feeling.

[ag]

One thing should be made clear: it is hard to imagine the set of circumstances in which an attempt to depose the guy from the outside would not be a disaster for all sides involved. Remember Guatemala's Arbenz and the decades of civil war that eventually followed.  For now, he is elected for a fixed term and constitutionally constrained. If he tries to remove those constraints through a self-coup, it should still be the matter for the Bolivians to resolve, unless something outright extreme happens (e.g., he invades Chile, or something equally crazy).

[minionofmidas]

Oh yeah right, that issue. I'd totally forgotten about that.
Say, IIRC Peru lost territory to Chile around then as well. Is this still an issue in Peru too?

[ag]

Oh yeah right, that issue. I'd totally forgotten about that.
Say, IIRC Peru lost territory to Chile around then as well. Is this still an issue in Peru too?

Of course it is. Peruvians hate Chileans passionately.  A thoughtless word from any Chilean, in government or otherwise, is enough to cause a nasty international scandal, since in Peru anything will be taken as a  mortal insult which can't be atoned for.  The fact that Chile is now the richest country in the region is enough of an insult by itself.

[YoMartin]

Yes, it´s still an issue in Peru. In fact, just weeks ago the peruvian congress passed a law (unanimously) redrawing its maritime boundary with Chile. I don´t know if that law has any real effect or it´s just a symbolic statement, but it shows that the dispute still exists. Peru also opposes giving Bolivia access to the Pacific. Ecuador, which has its own conflicts with Peru, backs Chile in the issue. As you can see, nationalist claims are starting to get serious...

[minionofmidas]

Peru also opposes giving Bolivia access to the Pacific.

Why is that? Shouldn't they be making joint cause in trying to get the ancient boundaries back?

[Jens]

Peru also opposes giving Bolivia access toPacific.

Why is that? Shouldn't they be making joint cause in trying to get the ancient boundaries back?

Peru and Bolivia also has their boundary disputes and I'm pretty that the Bolivians hasn't forgotten that they where under Peru for a while. - And hey, we've got a better claim for Holstein that Bolivia has for the Atacama area;)

[WMS]

Yes, it´s still an issue in Peru. In fact, just weeks ago the peruvian congress passed a law (unanimously) redrawing its maritime boundary with Chile. I don´t know if that law has any real effect or it´s just a symbolic statement, but it shows that the dispute still exists. Peru also opposes giving Bolivia access to the Pacific. Ecuador, which has its own conflicts with Peru, backs Chile in the issue. As you can see, nationalist claims are starting to get serious...

Good to see you back - post more often!

Other than Peru not supporting Bolivia, this is not that surprising. All we need now is for Paraguay to go for Chaco War II.

[minionofmidas]

Peru also opposes giving Bolivia access toPacific.

Why is that? Shouldn't they be making joint cause in trying to get the ancient boundaries back?

Peru and Bolivia also has their boundary disputes and I'm pretty that the Bolivians hasn't forgotten that they where under Peru for a while. - And hey, we've got a better claim for Holstein that Bolivia has for the Atacama area;)

For Schleswig maybe. Hey, you can have that as far as I care. As long as you support Frankfurt independence in return. (Hey, and Bolivia was called High Peru under the Spanish. I don't approve of naming countries after people anyways. For a return of "Alto Peru" and "Nueva Granada" to the maps of the world!)

[angus]

Tiwanaku is quite an interesting place.  Arid, like California.  I've posted photos of the region here before, including one of two large hairy llamas in an earlier Peru thread.  As an amateur historian of indigenous American cultures I'm intrigued by the mystery of the place.  Mysterious, since the original inhabitants left no written record of how the brought those massive stones to the site in the first place without horse, elephant, or wheel.  Bear in mind that Lago Titicaca is drying up slowly, and that that surf of the large lake, whose black color against the arid Bolivian altiplano evokes images of the Eastern Mediterranean, did lap the shores of Tiwanaku.  There is also evidence that a port did exist there.  Given Toledo and Morales* rise to power, and similar rumblings elsewhere in the Americas, are we seeing the end of Hispanic (white) rule and the beginnings of Indigenous rule?  Maybe that's reading a bit much into it.  And really, given South Africa's precipitous decline socially and economically since the end of Afrikaaner rule, it may not be a welcome change by the international community anyway.  (My colleague from Amsterdam used to point out that "Unfortunately the only Dutch word that most Americans know is apartheid, but really we're nice people.")  Still, I found the following article, printed today in the International section of the Commerical-Dispatch, interesting.  Somewhere Pizarro's papal benefactors are rolling over in their graves, no?

Bolivian President-elect seeks blessing in temple
By FIONA SMITH
The Associated Press

TIWANAKU, Bolivia - Bolivian President-elect Evo Morales, dressed in a bright red tunic worn only by the most important pre-Inca priests, promised to do away with vestiges of his country's colonial past Saturday in a spiritual ceremony at an ancient temple on the eve of his inauguration.

To roars from the crowd of tens of thousands, Morales - the first Indian to be elected as Bolivia's president and a fierce critic of the U.S. - called his landslide election a victory for indigenous populations around the world, saying it was evidence that poor countries can rise up to challenge richer ones.

"With the unity of the people, we're going to end the colonial state and the neoliberal model," said Morales, who spoke mostly in Spanish but also offered greetings in the Aymara language he grew up speaking as a boy.

Afterward, Morales headed to La Paz and met with Assistant Secretary of State Thomas Shannon, who heads the State Department's Western Hemisphere affairs bureau.

The two spent an hour talking in the kitchen of Morales' small apartment, but did not discuss coca eradication.  "We didn't talk about that issue," Shannon said. "We came to congratulate the new president for his victory and wish him success."

While Morales has vowed to battle drug trafficking since his election, he said this week a coca grower will be named to the top government post in the fight against illegal drugs. U.S. officials now worry the new president, a coca farmer himself, may limit U.S.-sponsored eradication programs, and coca growers say they will pressure him to expand areas where the leaf, the raw material for cocaine, can be legally grown.

Earlier, spectators - many themselves chewing coca leaves - walked for miles to listen to the leftist leader in Tiwanaku, passing thatched adobe huts and grazing sheep to reach the archaeological remains of the civilization that flourished from around 500 B.C. to about the 13th century near the shores of Lake Titicaca, 40 miles from La Paz.

When Morales arrived, they shouted "Viva Evo! Viva Bolivia!" in both Spanish and Aymara, waving rainbow-colored flags representing 500 years of Indian resistance, first against Spaniard domination, then against nearly two centuries of grinding poverty in a country with a deep divide between rich and poor.

Many of Bolivia's Indians, representing 60 percent of the country's 8.5 million citizens, contend a white elite is responsible for continued repression.  Morales first walked barefoot up the Akapana pyramid and donned the tunic and a cap decorated with traditional yellow and red Aymara patterns. Then he was blessed by priests and accepted a baton adorned with gold and silver, symbolizing his Indian leadership.

After putting on sandals, he descended from the pyramid to address the crowd in front of the Kalasasaya temple.  Morales thanked Mother Earth and God for his political victory and promised to "seek equality and justice," as he closed the ceremony performed by Indian priests, the cultural inheritors of this pre-Incan city whose people mysteriously disappeared without written record long before the Spaniards took control of much of South America.

He also praised the guerrilla Che Guevera, killed in Bolivia while trying to mount an armed revolution, and Tupac Katari, the 18th-century Indian leader who tried to capture La Paz from the Spanish.

He also pledged to work hard to change an international economic order dominated by developed countries that he blames for keeping poor nations trapped in misery.  "The time has come to change this terrible history of looting our natural resources, of discrimination, of humiliation, of hate," Morales said.

Wilfredo Silva, a 32-year-old gas station manager, traveled 25 hours with his two small children on dilapidated buses and trains from a town on the border with Argentina to witness what he called the most important event in Bolivia's history.  "It's an important day for Bolivia because it's a monumental change," Silva said, near Indians standing at attention in dark red ponchos and fedora hats.

Eusebio Condori, a 50-year-old Aymaran, played Andean music on a reed flute with a group performing Indian dances that were prohibited by the Spaniards during three centuries of Spanish domination that ended during the 19th century.  "It's a joy and a pleasure to be with one of our own," said Condori, wearing a black cap adorned with feathers and a leather cape.



*There's also an interesting article in yesterday's WaPo stating that Morales "...may withdraw support for the US-backed and US-financed cocaine eradication program..."  No surprise there.  I suppose Reagan may also be rolling over in his grave.  The Bolivian citizen, the colleague I've mentioned before, who lives in the apartment immediately below me seems very proud of the fact that she doesn't vote.  Not unlike Jaggi of Canada I think.  Or Che Guevara.  Anarchism isn't dead, just taking a nap till the warm glow of democracy stops being fashionable to the leftist crowd, I suppose.  Or maybe Lennon's "Revolution" had a meaningful message after all.  Anyway, just thought you might find the cult replacement interesting.

[minionofmidas]

On German tv they dubbed him thanking "our Gods". I just went "wow, I love it. Paganism Rules!"

[YoMartin]

I´m for the separation of religion and the State, so I didn´t like that. Still, I think many gods are less harmful than just one.