Rasmussen: Lieberman 54, Weicker 32

[nini2287]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Connecticut%20Senate.htm

There was no Republican candidate in this poll, but Weicker attracts 37% of the state's Democratic voters and Lieberman gets over half of the Republicans.

If a Republican candidate runs in this race, it might start to get interesting.

[Yates]

Weicker is doing better than I had previously predicted.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Lieberman's main hope would be that the Republican party helps him out like they did back in 1988 when he ran against then Republican Weicker.

[Cubby]

WOW!!!!

There's been little to no information about this potential race in the state media, so I wonder where people are getting there opinions from.

I thought Joe was totally safe, now it doesn't look so sure. I disagree with him on Iraq but I would probably support him if we had to vote today, since regaining a Democrat Majority in the Senate is the important thing.

[Q]

There's been little to no information about this potential race in the state media, so I wonder where people are getting there opinions from.

My thoughts exactly.  This could mean that the Weicker supporters are rather solidly in support of him.  A Republican entering the contest would probably hurt Lieberman more than Weicker, and a recent interview I heard with the latter made me believe that he is running.

If Weicker does run, this will be the campaign I volunteer on for the next year, as the CT Governor's race is not clear-cut in my mind.  Rell is my favorite governor in the nation, but I'd like to see DeStefano leave New Haven alone, and his election as governor would see to that.  Although then he might mess up the entire state rather than just one city.  So Rell and Weicker it is for me.

[GOP = Terrorists]

And remember this is before the "Joe Lieberman is Bush's choice for Senator" ads which will be devestating... =)

If Weicker runs I'll give him all of next summer.  40 hour weeks.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Weicker gets in, he has my full and absolute support.

[AuH2O]

Ideally the GOP would field as good a candidate as they can find. Lieberman does enjoy high approval ratings among Republicans... but party ID is still important, and the fact of the matter is that Lieberman has a very liberal voting record.

He often antagonizes Democrats but his ACU scores are usually in line with Ted Kennedy. So Weicker nails him on the left, an articulate Republican could consolidate the right, such as it is in CT.

I have no idea how a real 3-candidate race would play out.

[Q]

If Weicker runs I'll give him all of next summer.  40 hour weeks.

Perhaps I'll see you on the campaign in New Haven next fall, or this spring if he announces that soon.

[Democratic Hawk]

Good. As a "Defense Democrat" I support Lieberman

Dave

[Q]

Good. As a "Defense Democrat" I support Lieberman

Dave, this really isn't good news at all for Lieberman.  An unannounced candidate who's largely been out of the lime light and whose candidacy hasn't been in the CT media very much is getting a third of the vote, and Lieberman gets barely above 50% even without a Republican opponent.  Lieberman's support should decrease significantly when an GOPer enters the mix, even one who's not especially credible.  If Weicker and a GOPer both run, Lieberman could be in serious danger.

[© tweed]

Joe has a *63%* approval rating according to the last SUSA survey.  He simply isn't going to lose.  Weicker could make it interesting but he won't win.

I'd vote for Lieberman.  His "conservatism" is vastly overstated.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Perhaps I'll see you on the campaign in New Haven next fall, or this spring if he announces that soon.

Lets just hope he runs. =)

[Blank Slate]

I just have two questions for people from Connecticut in the political know, especially liberal Democrats:

1.  Which party would you say Weicker would caucus with (despite who is in the majority)?

2.   How would a strong Weicker candidacy effect the outcome of whether Joe Courtney (D) could win in the U.S. House, District 2 in hopefully defeating Simmons, and how would a strong Weicker candidacy effect the outcome of whether Diane Farrell (D) (in her second hopefully winning attempt) could win in the U.S. House, District 4 in hopefully defeating Shays?

[GOP = Terrorists]

1.  Which party would you say Weicker would caucus with (despite who is in the majority)?

There is no way he would caucus with the GOP of today.

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That is a damn good question.   A possible reaction is that it boosts both the progressive and the moderate democratic turnouts which both have the effect of boosting the congressional races for the Dem challengers.  However it may also hurt Dems if the Pro-War Democrats revolt and vote GOP however anyone who isn't already voting GOP shouldn't be switching to vote for them anytime soon... =)

[Q]

I was typing this before Progress answered, but I forgot to post it.

I just have two questions for people from Connecticut in the political know, especially liberal Democrats:

1.  Which party would you say Weicker would caucus with (despite who is in the majority)?

2.   How would a strong Weicker candidacy effect the outcome of whether Joe Courtney (D) could win in the U.S. House, District 2 in hopefully defeating Simmons, and how would a strong Weicker candidacy effect the outcome of whether Diane Farrell (D) (in her second hopefully winning attempt) could win in the U.S. House, District 4 in hopefully defeating Shays?

1) Among the 2 parties, the Democrats, most likely, even though Weicker was a Republican while he served in Congress.  However, Weicker makes Jim Jeffords look like a partisan Democrat.  He is a committed Independent, as I understand from the interviews he's given lately.

2) Possibly, but I would doubt it would be palpable.  Those races are basically just about the candidates in those races themselves, which explains why both of them won in 04 despite the general anti-Bush sentiment in the state.

[nini2287]

So how come the Democrats on here who have announced their support for Weicker (and thus ousting a Democratic incumbent for someone who may or may not caucus with us) aren't getting flamed the way I was when I endorsed Chafee.  Aren't they also "letting Rick Santorum and Bill Frist set our nation's policy"?

(For the record I am a Lieberman supporter, but I don't hate Lowell Weicker and think he would do a good job as well)

[Blank Slate]

Thank you both SA FQ and Progress for answering my as Progress put it darn good questions.

I could then see myself supporting Weicker then.   Because I'm definitely not been a fan of Leiberman, especially lately.   

I know Leiberman has a more liberal voting record than it might appear to the average person (not following politics that closely) he has, but I have not been all that thrilled at what appears to be his latest caving in to Bush; especially when it comes to supporting the worse or most onerous (to civil liberties) parts of the Patriot Act.

Now my support of Weicker might be tempered by two other issues:

1.   Whether a strong enough Republican enters that would split the vote enough, to have Weicker squeek by, but not strong enough to help Simmons or Shays in the 2nd and 4th Congressional district respectively, because I would sorely want both Courtney and Farrell to win (especially Farrell, I think Farrell will make one hell of a GREAT congresswoman -- on the level of former Congresswoman Pat Schroeder).

2.    And also whether it looks like there is enough other Democrats across the nation, running for other Senate seats, for the Democrats to take back the U.S. Senate, in a convincing manner, with the Democrats still being able to afford to lose Leiberman; i.e.:  It looks for sure that the Democrats will keep all of the seats they are defending including the two Nelsons, and the Maryland and Minnesota open seats, will be able to oust Burns in Montana, DeWine in Ohio, Santorum in Pennsylvania and Talent in Missouri, and perhaps pick up the Tennessee and if Lott retires the Mississippi open Republican seats and perhaps if the tide turns even more to Democrats (a particularly bad midterm for Republicans) also some surprise pick-ups (for now a surprise),  the ousting of Nevada's Ensign, and possibly Chafee in Rhode Island.  Then I would suspect that Weicker as an Independent, just like Sanders as an Independent would for sure caucus with the majority Democrats.       
 

[bgwah]

Lieberman is a freedom slaughterer.

I don't know much about Weicker, but I would support him...if only because he's not Joe Like-A-Nazi-But-He's-Jewish Lieberman.

[MasterJedi]

Go Lieberman, thd best Democrat in the Senate.

[GOP = Terrorists]

Aren't they also "letting Rick Santorum and Bill Frist set our nation's policy"?

No.  Lowell Weicker will not caucus with the GOP.  Your comparison would be closer if Chafee left the GOP and was Governor of Rhode Island as a 3rd party candidate and who thinks that the two party system is a joke.  Instead Chafee fell in line with Frist and Santorum and the far right.

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I don't see how you could think they both would do a good job unless you have no opinion on the war in Iraq.  And yes I hate Joe Lieberman.  I think he is a sellout and a warmonger.

[nini2287]

Aren't they also "letting Rick Santorum and Bill Frist set our nation's policy"?

No.  Lowell Weicker will not caucus with the GOP.  Your comparison would be closer if Chafee left the GOP and was Governor of Rhode Island as a 3rd party candidate and who thinks that the two party system is a joke.  Instead Chafee fell in line with Frist and Santorum and the far right.

Why would he necessarily not caucus with the GOP?  Remember, he has served in the Senate as a Republican before and is still a registered Republican (I believe).  How does Chafee fall in with Frist and Santorum?  He's pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-environment and not very much of a fiscal conservative.

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I don't see how you could think they both would do a good job unless you have no opinion on the war in Iraq.  And yes I hate Joe Lieberman.  I think he is a sellout and a warmonger.
[/quote]

A "good job" just doesn't include the War in Iraq.  Jon Kyl and Russ Feingold are both very good Senators (objective, free thinkers, good temprement and legitmaetly care about our country) even though they have very different views on Iraq and about every other issue.

[tarheel-leftist85]

I think Lieberman is going to get b/w 65 and 70%.  He deserves it--not b/c he acts like a Republican, in fact, quite the opposite!

[dazzleman]

I'll definitely vote for Lieberman over Weicker, and I almost never vote for a Democrat beyond the local level.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Getting rid of an incumbent of your party due to some petty ideological differences? Oh dear God, I'm having flashbacks of the Bennite surge now...