U.S House Democratic potential pickup opportunities

[136or142]

In order of likelihood of flipping (IMO) as of September 2019.  These could be the leading Democrats for the nomination.

1.Texas 23, Gina Ortiz Jones, 2018 nominee, open district
2.Georgia 7, Carolyn Bourdeaux, 2018 nominee, various elected Democrats, open district
3.Texas 24, Jan McDowell, 2016 and 2018 nominee, Kim Olson, 2018 State Agriculture Commissioner nominee, open district
4.Pennsylvania 1, Judy Reiss, Bucks County Prothonotary
5.Illinois, 13, Betsy Dirksen Londrigan, 2018 nominee
6.Indiana 5, Dee Thornton, 2018 nominee, Christina Hale, 2016 Lieutenant Governor nominee, open district
7.Nebraska 2, Kara Eastman, 2018 nominee, Ann Ashford
8.Texas 21, Wendy Davis, 2014 Governor nominee
9.Florida 15, Adam Hattersley, State Representative
10.Texas 22, Sri Preston Kulkarni, 2018 nominee, Derrick Reed, Pearland City Councilor, open district

11.Texas 10, Mike Siegel, 2018 nominee
12.North Carolina 2, Monika Johnson-Hostler, Wake County School Trustee
13.Pennsylvania 10, Eugene DePasquale, State Auditor General
14.Michigan 6, Jon Hoadley, State Representative
15.Colorado 3, Diane Mitsch Bush, 2018 nominee, Donald Valdez, State Representative
16.Florida 16, Margaret Good, State Representative
17.Washington 3, Carolyn Long, 2018 nominee
18.Kentucky 6, Josh Hicks, 2018 State Representative nominee
19.Ohio 1, Nikki Foster, 2018 State Representative nominee
20.New York 1, Perry Gershon, 2018 nominee

21.New York 24, Dana Balter, 2018 nominee
22.Virginia 1, Vangie Williams, 2018 nominee
23.Texas 17, Rick Kennedy, 2018 nominee, open district
24.California 1, Audrey Denney, 2018 nominee
25.Montana-AL, Kathleen Williams, 2018 nominee, Tom Winter, State Representative, open district
26.Minnesota 1, Rick Wright
27.Michigan 2, Bryan Berghoef
28.Michigan 3, Nick Colvin
29.New York 2, Jackie Gordon, Babylon Town Councilor
30.Indiana 2, Pat Hackett, 2018 candidate for nomination

31.Texas 25, Julie Oliver, 2018 nominee
32.Texas 31. Christine Mann, 2018 candidate for nomination
33.Arizona 8, Bob Musselwhite, Former Litchfield Park City Councilor
34.Arizona 6, Anita Malik, 2018 nominee, Michael Muscato, 2016 State Senate nominee
35.Washington 5, Chris Armitage
36.California 4, Brynne Kennedy
37.Georgia 1, Lisa Ring, 2018 nominee
38.New York 23,Tracy Mitrano, 2018 nominee
39.New York 21, Tedra Cobb, 2018 nominee
40.Illinois 12, Joel Funk

41.Nevada 2, Clint Koble, 2018 nominee
42.Pennsylvania 16, Daniel Smith, 2018 State Representative nominee
43.Texas 2, Elisa Cardnell
44.Texas 3, Tanner Do, 2018 Collin County Commissioner nominee
45.West Virginia 2, Cathy Winkel
46.Texas 6, Stephen Daniel
47.Ohio 12, Jenny Ball
48.Michigan 1, Linda O'Dell
49.California 42, Julia Peacock, 2018 nominee
50.Wisconsin 6, Matt Boor

51.Wisconsin 1, Josh Pade, 2018 Governor Candidate for nomination
52.Ohio 10, Desiree Tims
53.Florida 6, Clint Curtis
54.Florida 3, Phil Dodds
55.South Carolina 2, Adair Boroughs
56.South Carolina 5, Mark Ali, 2018 candidate for nomination
57.Michigan 7, Sam Branscum

Potentially competitive districts with no declared Democratic candidate (in order of potential competitiveness)
1.North Carolina 13
2.Missouri 2
3.Florida 18
4.Ohio 14
5.Minnesota 8
6.Arkansas 2
7.Ohio 16
8.Indiana 9
9.Georgia 12
10.Ohio 2
11.South Carolina 7

Potentially competitive districts due to the controversial Republican incumbent (in alphabetical order)
1.Alaska-AL, Alyse Galvin, 2018 nominee
2.California 22, Phil Arbello
3.California 50, Ammar Campa Najjar, 2018 nominee
4.Iowa 4, J.D Scholten, 2018 nominee
5.Kansas 2, Abbie Hodgson, 2014 State Representative candidate for nomination
6.New Jersey 4, Stephanie Schmid
7.New York 27, Nate McMurray, 2018 nominee
8.Utah 2, Randy Hopkins, 2018 candidate for nomination (lost at convention)
9.Virginia 5, John Lesinski, Rappahonnock County Supervisor, Roger Dean (R.D) Huffstettler, 2018 candidate for nomination (dropped out at convention)

[Frenchrepublican]

You forgot TX-11

[Politician]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

[UncleSam]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

[136or142]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

[Frenchrepublican]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

[Frenchrepublican]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

[Theodore]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Neither is TX-10

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Neither is TX-10

A Beto district where the Republican incumbent only won by 5% isn’t competitive? I get that a lot of Republicans (and some Democrats stuck in 2012) want to put their heads in the sand about Texas but I didn’t think it was this bad

[Frenchrepublican]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Neither is TX-10

It could be in a 2008 style D wave

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Neither is TX-10

A Beto district where the Republican incumbent only won by 5% isn’t competitive? I get that a lot of Republicans (and some Democrats stuck in 2012) want to put their heads in the sand about Texas but I didn’t think it was this bad

My god, you're such a snowflake. If anyone dares make a post suggesting that Trump could win your beloved TX you flip out into a rage.

You can just ignore me, bro. I honestly get tired of arguing with rubes who think Texas hasn’t trended blue at all since 2012 and straw man the hell out of everything I say. Also, where was the rage? It seems you basically copied and pasted what I said to you yesterday and changed only the word “Ohio” to “Texas”

[136or142]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

[Roll Roons]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

[136or142]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Going over the first 10
1.Florida 16, Vern Buchanan releected 54.6-45.4% in 2018. Under 55%
2.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr reelected by 3%
3.Virginia 1,  Rob Wittman reelected 55.2-44.7% (just over 55%) after winning by 23.3% in 2016.
4.Texas 17, open district that was closer than 60-40% in 2018.
5.California 1, Doug LaMalfa reelected 54.9-45.1% in 2018.  Under 55%
6.Michigan 2, Bill Huizenga reelected 55.3-43.0% in 2018 against an underfunded opponent.
7.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski reelected 54.8-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
8.Arizona 8, Debbie Lesko elected in General Election 55.5-44.5% in 2018 in an area that is trending to the Democrats (suburban Phoenix)
9.Washington 5, Cathy McMorris Rodgers reelected 54.8%-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
10.California 4, Tom McClintock reelected 54.1-45.9% in 2018. Under 55%

All of these are potentially competitive districts.

[136or142]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

Not his comments on abortion, but he is an anti abortion ideologue and activist in Congress.

[Roll Roons]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

Not his comments on abortion, but he is an anti abortion ideologue and activist in Congress.

And he's been like that ever since he got elected. Clearly it doesn't bother his constituents.

[136or142]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

Not his comments on abortion, but he is an anti abortion ideologue and activist in Congress.

And he's been like that ever since he got elected. Clearly it doesn't bother his constituents.

He had his closest reelection in 2018 that he had in many years.

[Xing]

Basically GA-07, IL-13, NE-02, NY-24 (maybe), PA-01, PA-10, and several TX districts. Anything else (including NC-09 if Bishop wins the special election) would probably take a wave.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Going over the first 10
1.Florida 16, Vern Buchanan releected 54.6-45.4% in 2018. Under 55%
2.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr reelected by 3%
3.Virginia 1,  Rob Wittman reelected 55.2-44.7% (just over 55%) after winning by 23.3% in 2016.
4.Texas 17, open district that was closer than 60-40% in 2018.
5.California 1, Doug LaMalfa reelected 54.9-45.1% in 2018.  Under 55%
6.Michigan 2, Bill Huizenga reelected 55.3-43.0% in 2018 against an underfunded opponent.
7.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski reelected 54.8-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
8.Arizona 8, Debbie Lesko elected in General Election 55.5-44.5% in 2018 in an area that is trending to the Democrats (suburban Phoenix)
9.Washington 5, Cathy McMorris Rodgers reelected 54.8%-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
10.California 4, Tom McClintock reelected 54.1-45.9% in 2018. Under 55%

All of these are potentially competitive districts.

Just because you can get into a high single digits range doesn’t in itself make it competitive if there’s no realistic path to actually win. Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky and New Mexico are pretty good examples of this.

[Ye We Can]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

Not his comments on abortion, but he is an anti abortion ideologue and activist in Congress.

And he's been like that ever since he got elected. Clearly it doesn't bother his constituents.

He had his closest reelection in 2018 that he had in many years.

 He still won by 12 points lmao

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

I don't think his pro-life views are THAT far out of the party's mainstream. He certainly doesn't deserve to be grouped in with the likes of Hunter and King.

Not his comments on abortion, but he is an anti abortion ideologue and activist in Congress.

And he's been like that ever since he got elected. Clearly it doesn't bother his constituents.

He had his closest reelection in 2018 that he had in many years.

 He still won by 12 points lmao

I love how when I suggest Brazos County (a rapidly bluening Cruz +12%) or Collin County (a rapidly bluening Cruz +6%) have a chance at becoming light blue within the next decade, Atlas Democrats seem to lose their minds, yet a lot of these same people like to pretend that seats like IA-4, KY-6, NJ-4, and IN-2 are winnable next year in 2020 for Democrats

[IceSpear]

Just thought I'd point out that OP unironically thought Mo Brooks would lose re-election in 2018. He won by 22 points.

[136or142]

Just thought I'd point out that OP unironically thought Mo Brooks would lose re-election in 2018. He won by 22 points.

I've been trying to forget that. I did change my mind on that before the election.

[Frenchrepublican]

And why do you consider Chris Smith ''controversial'' ?

His anti abortion and especially his anti gay marriage positions and comments.

LOL. Being against abortion is not a controversial thing (at least not ine the US)

[Frenchrepublican]

You forgot TX-11

TX-11 voted for Trump by 58%, it's not competitive.

Neither are most of these rofl

The Republican incumbents won most of these districts with less than 55% in 2018.  They're certainly potentially competitive.

LOL. FL-16, KY-6, VA-1, TX-17, CA-1, MI-2, IN-2, AZ-8, WA-5, CA-4, GA-1, NY-23, NY-21, IL-12, MI-1, CA-42, WI-6, WV-2, WI-1, OH-10, FL-6, FL-3, SC-2, SC-5, MI-7, FL-18, OH-14, MN-8, AR-2, OH-16, IN-2, SC-7 GA-12, OH-2 ARE NOT COMPETITIVE

Going over the first 10
1.Florida 16, Vern Buchanan releected 54.6-45.4% in 2018. Under 55%
2.Kentucky 6, Andy Barr reelected by 3%
3.Virginia 1,  Rob Wittman reelected 55.2-44.7% (just over 55%) after winning by 23.3% in 2016.
4.Texas 17, open district that was closer than 60-40% in 2018.
5.California 1, Doug LaMalfa reelected 54.9-45.1% in 2018.  Under 55%
6.Michigan 2, Bill Huizenga reelected 55.3-43.0% in 2018 against an underfunded opponent.
7.Indiana 2, Jackie Walorski reelected 54.8-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
8.Arizona 8, Debbie Lesko elected in General Election 55.5-44.5% in 2018 in an area that is trending to the Democrats (suburban Phoenix)
9.Washington 5, Cathy McMorris Rodgers reelected 54.8%-45.2% in 2018. Under 55%
10.California 4, Tom McClintock reelected 54.1-45.9% in 2018. Under 55%

All of these are potentially competitive districts.

2018 was a D+8 year so if a democratic candidate loses by double digits or even by high single digit a district, there are few chances that this district is not winnable for them. By the way democrats tried very hard to win FL-16, IN-2, KY-6 or WA-5 and they still lost big despite a very favourable climate, so no these places aren't winnable.