Personal problems mean retirement for Lott?

[Keystone Phil]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051217/ap_on_el_se/lott_future


If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

[Moooooo]

I read an article the other day that stated Lott would retire if he was denied the Majority Leader spot.

Taylor or Moore would make the race very competitive, possibly a toss-up.  Moore has never lost statewide.  And if Taylor can transfer his 60-65% in MS-4 to the senate race... He would be damn hard to beat.

[Keystone Phil]

I read an article the other day that stated Lott would retire if he was denied the Majority Leader spot.

I figured it had something to do with the leadership but doesn't he want whip?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case anyone's interested, the last time Taylor's district voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate was either 1960 or 1956.

[Moooooo]

Al, lets assume Lott retires and Taylor runs unopposed in the dem primary.  Come general election time what are the odds of him pulling his normal 60-65% in MS-4 in a senate race?  If he pulls that off, he would be pretty damn hard to beat, correct?

[minionofmidas]

Al, lets assume Lott retires and Taylor runs unopposed in the dem primary.  Come general election time what are the odds of him pulling his normal 60-65% in MS-4 in a senate race? 

Who are we to assume as his Rep opponent? Especially: Where are we to assume his Rep opponent to be from?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'd like to see Amy Tuck run for Senate - she would do VERY well.

[Ben.]

If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

Who ever the GOP nominates should Moore run I think the race will be very competitive... but would Moore run, I think Schumer and Reid would certainly try and convince him to "pull a Casey"

Taylor and current AG Jim Hood would also be credible and competive Democratic candidates, perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Democrats though, should Moore pass on the race, would be former Governor Ray Mabus.

Surprisingly the Democrats can boast four credible candidates for a seat that, should Lott run for re-election will be a “lock” for the GOP, the likely trend in the fall of 2006 can only help strong candidates like Taylor, Hood, Moore and Mabus.   

[© tweed]

If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

Who ever the GOP nominates should Moore run I think the race will be very competitive... but would Moore run, I think Schumer and Reid would certainly try and convince him to "pull a Casey"

What do you mean by 'pull a Casey'?

[minionofmidas]

If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

Who ever the GOP nominates should Moore run I think the race will be very competitive... but would Moore run, I think Schumer and Reid would certainly try and convince him to "pull a Casey"

What do you mean by 'pull a Casey'?

I dunno. "go negative" maybe? Or "run against Lott"?

[Ben.]

If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

Who ever the GOP nominates should Moore run I think the race will be very competitive... but would Moore run, I think Schumer and Reid would certainly try and convince him to "pull a Casey"

What do you mean by 'pull a Casey'?

I dunno. "go negative" maybe? Or "run against Lott"?

Drag a top tier candidate into a race which while they would likely win, they may have had reservations about entering.

Sure there are differences between getting Casey to run in PA and potentially getting Moore to run in MS but there are also some important parallels as well.     

[Yates]

Hopefully, Lott and his family see their situation become brighter.  It is always awful to see even those who you disagree with politically suffer.

[Galactic Overlord]

The big obstacle for a Democrat running for the Senate in Mississippi is sort of the same problem that Brad Carson had in Oklahoma, namely his vote puts Harry Reid and Ted Kennedy in the majority.  The Republican can claim "A vote for Taylor/Mabus/et al is a vote for Ted Kennedy."  And that is very persuasive.  From what I've heard, Taylor has a somewhat erratic personality that may not translate well to a statewide race.  Lott also, from what I've heard, does not like Taylor and would do his darnest to keep him from succeeding him in the Senate.

[socaldem]

I read an article the other day that stated Lott would retire if he was denied the Majority Leader spot.

I figured it had something to do with the leadership but doesn't he want whip?

If its majority leader or bust, his retirement is a fait accompli.  There's no way McConnell steps down for him.  Supposedly the Whip position is to go to Santorum, but I doubt he'll be there next year.  Even if he were to try for whip, though, I don't think he has the votes...

Congressman Pickering, I've heard, is already travelling the state... he was particularly involved with the Katrina aide, too...

As for the Democrats, I'd like to see some competition but I have my doubts with the inevitable Pickering juggernaut.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Congressman Pickering, I've heard, is already travelling the state... he was particularly involved with the Katrina aide, too...

I think you meant Katrina aid not aide unless there's a scandal waiting to be revealed.

[socaldem]

Congressman Pickering, I've heard, is already travelling the state... he was particularly involved with the Katrina aide, too...

I think you meant Katrina aid not aide unless there's a scandal waiting to be revealed.

haha... i think MS could use a scandal to spice things up... it also might give Dems a chance there!

[7,052,770]

I don't want Taylor to run...I don't know any other Dem who could win in his House seat, so I'd rather him just keep that.

Mike Moore...that's my guy.

Of course, if Taylor's the candidate, I'll be behind him 100%.  I think I'm going to volunteer over the summer for whoever the Democrat is.

[7,052,770]

If he does retire, Pickering better run. If Pickering doesn't run and Mike Moore does, the GOP is in trouble.

Who ever the GOP nominates should Moore run I think the race will be very competitive... but would Moore run, I think Schumer and Reid would certainly try and convince him to "pull a Casey"

Taylor and current AG Jim Hood would also be credible and competive Democratic candidates, perhaps the most intriguing possibility for the Democrats though, should Moore pass on the race, would be former Governor Ray Mabus.

Surprisingly the Democrats can boast four credible candidates for a seat that, should Lott run for re-election will be a “lock” for the GOP, the likely trend in the fall of 2006 can only help strong candidates like Taylor, Hood, Moore and Mabus.   

There's so few of us here, and Taylor and Hood already have jobs...I'd definitely rather go with Moore and not give up the AG or a House Seat.

Mabus, though...that's a really interesting idea...

[Ben.]

There's so few of us here, and Taylor and Hood already have jobs...I'd definitely rather go with Moore and not give up the AG or a House Seat.

Mabus, though...that's a really interesting idea...

That’s my fear as well.

Look at Oklahoma back in 2004, Brad Carson a bright conservative Democrat throws away a promising career in what was a bad year for Democrats.   

Though admittedly 2004 was a presidential year and was also one in which the GOP was in a far stronger position nationally than they are today, especially in Oklahoma with Bush at the top of the ticket and high evangelical turnout nationwide.

If Moore ran in an open race, that keeps Taylor and Hood in strong positions, if Barbour was vulnerable (as he seemed pre-Katrina) Hood might be a good candidate for 2007 (?) as for Taylor I’m not sure… at the moment I seem to remember he’s getting his place sorted out after the storm, rather like Lott… but we’ll see he might still have a long way to go on the Hill and the “Blue Dogs” are only going to grow in future years making folks like Taylor increasingly influential within the Democratic Party in the house.         

Thoughts on Mabus?

[CheeseWhiz]

I hope not, I really like Lott

I really do hope it gets better for him.

[minionofmidas]

Who's Mabus?

[7,052,770]

Who's Mabus?

former governor of MS, from '88-'92, before Fordice.  He was ambassador to Saudi Arabia too, if that matters.  He lost reelection in the '91 campaign to Fordice and I haven't heard much about him since.


Gene Taylor is a good Democrat in general to run for a MS senate seat, I just don't see him winning, and his running means he'd lose his House seat which the Republicans would almost certainly pick up.  Mike Moore, though, I could see winning the seat.

[socaldem]

Who's Mabus?

former governor of MS, from '88-'92, before Fordice.  He was ambassador to Saudi Arabia too, if that matters.  He lost reelection in the '91 campaign to Fordice and I haven't heard much about him since.


Gene Taylor is a good Democrat in general to run for a MS senate seat, I just don't see him winning, and his running means he'd lose his House seat which the Republicans would almost certainly pick up.  Mike Moore, though, I could see winning the seat.

Can anyone breakdown the potential Democratic winning coalition with Moore/Mabus geographically/demographically?  Does Pickering have any obvious weaknesses?

What about Wicker?  Everytime Pickering gets mentioned as a shoo0in it seems like his partisans chime in..."what about the congressman from Northern MS?"