Who will win your county?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Blue Earth county results in 2000:

Bush - 47.2%
Gore - 45.0%
Nader - 6.4%

very narrowly for Bush with Nader taking almost 3 times what's needed. Since I predict Kerry will win Minnesota by a wider margin than Gore, the hatred of Bush will lead to higher turnout among the campus, and Nader won't get half of what he did last time, that Kerry will win Blue Earth county by at least 4 points.

[California Dreamer]

My County in 2000
Gore 63.5% - 1,710,505   (3.4% of Gore's total vote)
Bush 32.4% - 871,930  
Nader 3.1% - 83,731  
Other 1.1% - 28,988

...I am going to go out on a limb and call it for Kerry

[7,052,770]

Madison County hasn't gone Dem since 1980 and isn't going to change anytime soon.
Bush will win here.

[opebo]

Well, I divide my time between St. Louis County, which will be about 50/50, St. Louis City - Kerry 75/25, suburban Jefferson County which went very narrowly for Gore, and probably will for Kerry as well, and very rural Washington County, which is I suppose poverty stricken and will go for Kerry as it went for Gore, though narrowly.  I frequent atypically Democrat-prone parts of Missouri, which will go easily for Bush.

[WMS]

Bernalillo County in 2000:
Gore 48.68% (99461)
Bush 46.62% (95249)
Nader 4.05% (8274)
Browne 0.35% (713)
Others 0.30% (622)

Factors:
Nader swing to Kerry...maybe 2%
Growth in housing; from multi-family to single-family - gain for Bush (I've seen the registration numbers, OK?) guess 1-2%
Social Conservatism of Hispanic Population...possible gain to Bush, depending on issue importance at election time (uncertain)
New Mexico predicted swing to Bush...2.5% to Bush

So...honestly, flip a bloody coin here...
Bush 48.70%
Kerry 48.60%
Nader 2.05%
Libertarians 0.35%
Others 0.30%

Final results determined sometime on the day AFTER Election Day due to heavy absentee voting...as usual.

[MAS117]

KERRY WILL SLAUGHTER BUSH IN MY COUNTY

[Fritz]

Hennepin County, Minnesota- where Minneapolis is- this is Kerry country.

[Lunar]

Bush.

Nevada County last went Democratic in the Johnson landslide  in 64.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I live in Atlantic County, New Jersey. It's a mostly Republican county, and there seems to be a lot of support for Bush here.

mostly Republican?

Gore 58.0%
Bush 39.1%
Nader 2.4%

[KEmperor]

Probably Kerry, but Bush has a shot here I think.

[TeePee4Prez]

I live in Philly, definite Kerry!  I think Montgomery and Delaware will go Kerry as well.  Bucks and Chester Co's. could be close.  A lot of people even in heavily GOP areas around Philly not happy with war.  The family of the guy that got beheaded is from West Chester, PA which is the heart of GOP suburban Philly and they blasted Bush!  That could factor in as well.

[??????????]

Bush will win Hillsborough county again with about 52-56% of the vote.

[struct310]

My county is Maricopa where Bush wins by a healthy margin of about 13pts.  Last election it was by 11pts.

[WalterMitty]

alamance county nc in 2000:

bush 62.2%
gore 37.1%

the coutny should go for bush rather heavily again.  the last time the county voted democratic was 1976.

there  has been a lot of layoffs here in the textile industry.  but most people here dont see kerry as an acceptable alternative.

[Storebought]

EBRP: Bush 53% Kerry 47%, margins seen in virtually every election

[elcorazon]

Cook county in 2000:

Gore 68.6% 1,280,547  
Bush 28.6% 534,542  
Nader 2.3% 42,068  
Other 0.5% 8,750

I think Kerry will carry it comfortably.

[ilikeverin]

Hennepin County, Minnesota- where Minneapolis is- this is Kerry country.

Ditto.

However, my town'll vote Republican... just like we do for Mayor (I think), State House, State Senate, US Representative, and US Senate.

*sigh*

[Lt. Gov. Immy]

I think Nez Perce County will go for Kerry, even though the results of 2000 were thus:

Bush (Rep)  10577 66.02%
Gore (Dem)  4995 31.18%
Nader (Write-In) 141 0.88%
Buchanan (Ref)  131 0.82%
Browne (Lib)  107 0.67%
Hagelin (Nat)  41 0.26%
Phillips (Con)  29 0.18%

The Democratic party here was in shambles 4 years ago, in what was a Democratic stronghold in this conservative state.  NPC went for Clinton both times, Dukakis in 88, Carter in 76, and Humphrey in 68, basically every time there wasn't a Republican landslide.

The Democratic Party made strong gains in 2002, every campaign won in the county save a lackluster one that was 52-48 and it went for the losing Democrat House and Gubernatorial candidate.  I predict that my traditionally union county is trending back to the Democrats and will go for Kerry.

[© tweed]

Kerry.  Suffolk is trending Dem.

[TheWildCard]

4 years ago my county went like this

Gore 45.7% 437,666  
Bush 49.6% 475,736  
Nader 3.5% 33,979  
Other 1.2% 11,253

I believe this year Bush can crack 50 points here.  

[WalterMitty]

tweed:  what in the world happened to suffolk?  it used to be a republican stronghold.

i don tthink it is entirely because the republicans have gotten more consevative.  ronald reagan won suffolk big in both elections.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I live in Burlington County, NJ.  Went to Gore 56-40 in 2000, exactly like the state.  I think Kerry will do better there than Gore did personally,

Kerry  58.25%
Bush   38.50%

[ElectionAtlas]

Middlesex county, MA as well as the city of Newton (MA government is more town-based than county based) will both undoubtably go to Kerry (solid liberal area plus home team advantage).  Nader would more likely have a chance of winning before Bush would (in 2000 Nader placed ahead of Bush in the City of Cambridge).

[tigerfan04]

The county where I attend college, Pickens, votes overwhelmingly for Republicans, so it will go for Bush.  My home county of Darlington is a tossup.  It voted for Bush in 2000, but for Clinton both times.

[TeePee4Prez]

I live in Burlington County, NJ.  Went to Gore 56-40 in 2000, exactly like the state.  I think Kerry will do better there than Gore did personally,

Kerry  58.25%
Bush   38.50%

Where in Burlington Co?  Did you ever play hockey at Twin Rinks Pennsauken or Voorhees(now Flyers Skate Zones)?  Anyway, it's interesting you said that.  Is Burlington Co. Dem?  Funny I live in NE Philly and a lot of people are moving over there to escape Philly.  A lot of people wrongly associate the moderate Dems like Rendell, Hoeffel, and Kerry with Street.  I hate Street with a passion and voted Katz last November, but there is no way in hell I'm voting Bush, Specter, or Brown.  The thing I'm most afraid of is Brown and her tirades against Section 8.  This could backlash against Kerry and may cost him the state.  I'm not feeling Schwartz too much, but I think she'll be better.