Rasmussen: Schwarzenegger Trails Two Democrats

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

OMG FOUR POINTS DOWN, HE IS OVER!!!

In the circumstances these are good numbers of Arnie.

I’ve been saying for a while that Schwarzenegger had a much better chance of re-election than people where giving him credit for, the sad part is having been elected to put California’s fiscal house in order the voters have effectively blocked all his reforms… nasty situation to be in, and its going to be a competitive race in November, but I still see him eking out a win, however I fear it will do little to forward the cause of his reforms.     

Put California's fiscal house in order? Arnold is a typical borrow and spend Republican.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Even if the challengers' numbers aren't the best, Arnold's are just miserable for an incumbent. Not to mention if I remember correctly his approval ratings are lower than every governor in the country except Frank Murkowski and a certain character from Ohio. That he is going down is something I have very little doubt of.

There is an old logic problem that goes something like this: you are a recruiter for a baseball team.  You have two players try out by running to first base.  One makes it there with perfect form; the other with an ugly, sloppy gait.  Which one do you choose?  The one with terrible form.  Teach him good form, and he'll be able to outrun the other.

Likewise, you choose the candidate that can be most improved, not the one that is currently doing best.  With a nearly 2-to-1 disapproval, an incumbent being down only four points or so is extraordinarily good.  Schwarzenegger can't really go anywhere but up at this point, so Angelides and Westley are clearly barely hanging on.

Undecideds often break against the incumbent, especially unpopular incumbents. Silly Republican apoligist.

[ATFFL]

Davis was recalled for ordering financial reports to be delayed in their release so that the state of the economy looked better than it was during his reelection campaign.

Yes, that's exactly what the recall campaign ran on obviously, since this is the first time I have ever heard of this.

I keep forgetting you are all knowing.

[Alcon]

Even if the challengers' numbers aren't the best, Arnold's are just miserable for an incumbent. Not to mention if I remember correctly his approval ratings are lower than every governor in the country except Frank Murkowski and a certain character from Ohio. That he is going down is something I have very little doubt of.

There is an old logic problem that goes something like this: you are a recruiter for a baseball team.  You have two players try out by running to first base.  One makes it there with perfect form; the other with an ugly, sloppy gait.  Which one do you choose?  The one with terrible form.  Teach him good form, and he'll be able to outrun the other.

Likewise, you choose the candidate that can be most improved, not the one that is currently doing best.  With a nearly 2-to-1 disapproval, an incumbent being down only four points or so is extraordinarily good.  Schwarzenegger can't really go anywhere but up at this point, so Angelides and Westley are clearly barely hanging on.

Undecideds often break against the incumbent, especially unpopular incumbents. Silly Republican apoligist.

That may be true, but it's still an underperformance by the Democrats for candidates with such high recognition numbers running against an unpopular incumbent in a state that heavily leans toward the Demorats.

[TheresNoMoney]

That may be true, but it's still an underperformance by the Democrats for candidates with such high recognition numbers

Arnold's name recognition is 25 percentage points higher than his opponents.

[Keystone Phil]

Ha, reminds me of when Phil whined about the Democrats in St. Paul trying to recall Randy Kelly arguing he had done nothing except endorse Bush. Same thing as Davis, he was unpopular, in this case for endorsing Bush. Yes, recalls don't exist for this reason, but most Republicans have quite a double standard here, except Walter, who is often a rare Republican voice of common sense.

I think lying about the state of the budget and endorsing someone from the opposite party are two very different things.

[The Duke]

Davis was recalled for ordering financial reports to be delayed in their release so that the state of the economy looked better than it was during his reelection campaign.

Yes, that's exactly what the recall campaign ran on obviously, since this is the first time I have ever heard of this.

I keep forgetting you are all knowing.

Tredrick is right.  Davis got officials to lie about the state of the budget so he could get re-elected.  He would not have been recalled if he had not lied to get re-elected.  The public would have already made its judgement about Davis and whether or not to re-elect him based on his budget in 2002.

The power crunch also played a role, but not so intense a role as the budget.