ManchOUT for WV GOV

[Calthrina950]

https://<blockquote class=twitter-tweet><p lang=en dir=ltr>WV <a ...

Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.

[Calthrina950]

https://<blockquote class=twitter-tweet><p lang=en dir=ltr>WV <a ...

Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.

No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.

You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.

[Calthrina950]

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

[Calthrina950]

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.

As far as I know, yes. Manchin could run for Governor while still serving in the Senate. It would be a juggling act, but he could do it. Though if he does win the gubernatorial election, a holdover would only hold the seat through a special election in 2022, which would almost certainly be won by the Republicans.

[Calthrina950]

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.

As far as I know, yes. Manchin could run for Governor while still serving in the Senate. It would be a juggling act, but he could do it. Though if he does win the gubernatorial election, a holdover would only hold the seat through a special election in 2022, which would almost certainly be won by the Republicans.

That's correct, but the GOP could change the state law and trigger a special election within a few months (like the case in MA or VT). Manchin could veto, but the WV gov's veto can be overriden by a simple majority. Or the GOP changes the state law during the lame duck while Justice is still serving. I'm sure they would do it, especially if the senate is 50-50 after the 2020 elections.

Fortunately, we won't even have to worry about this hypothetical, now that Manchin has decided to stay in the Senate.

[Calthrina950]

https://<blockquote class=twitter-tweet><p lang=en dir=ltr>WV <a ...

Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.

No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.

You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.

Gotta agree with this post in general. I think that the three far eastern Panhandle counties (Jefferson (this one especially), Berkeley, and Morgan) will grow in size and trend Democratic, but I don’t think that they would be able to swing the state to being anything less than Likely R.

Given the way West Virginia is headed, those three counties (and Monongalia) might enable Democrats to at least have a foothold in the state again, and to not be locked out of winning a single county like Obama and Clinton were in 2012 and 2016 respectively. And even then, it is not guaranteed. I expect Trump to sweep the state's counties again in 2020. One other state where demographic trends might give Democrats a foothold is Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma County will begin voting Democratic at the presidential level by the late 2020s to early 2030s, and that would end their drought there; Democrats have not won a single county in the state, at the presidential level, since 2000! Republicans have swept the state's counties in four consecutive elections.