ManchOUT for WV GOV
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Author Topic: ManchOUT for WV GOV  (Read 4018 times)
Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins
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« on: September 02, 2019, 11:39:07 PM »
« edited: September 03, 2019, 04:41:18 PM by TrumpPrimaryOpponent2020 »



https://twitter.com/frankthorp/status/1168720630243561472

CBS is reporting that Aids drafted two separate statements one for in and one for out, but it sounds like we will have a final answer today.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senator-joe-manchin-to-announce-his-political-future-on-tuesday-morning/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab7e&linkId=73043669

 
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2019, 11:40:55 PM »

F&ck.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2019, 11:48:45 PM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2019, 12:32:05 AM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.


No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.

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Anti Democrat Democrat Club
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« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2019, 12:36:55 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2019, 12:39:24 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

Easy there, Mark Begich was supposed to drop out at this point last year.

Until it's official, I'm treating this like hot air just to get attention, as Manchin likes to do.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2019, 12:40:35 AM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.


No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.



You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2019, 12:47:38 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.
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« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2019, 01:01:51 AM »



Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.


No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV  and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs,  Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.


If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.



You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.

Yes they very well might, nobody thought 25 years that the DC suburbs would become so influential in Virginia and it happened . Also look at this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jefferson_County,_West_Virginia#Demographics





Jefferson County has continued to grow while the population in WV is falling and eventually when the NoVA becomes too expensive even for upper middle class workers(like the Bay Area right now) , people will likely start to move to cheaper areas in the Same Metro Area and Jefferson County very well might be that option(It also less than an hour and a half away from DC it self as well). Then once that happens you will see people all around the country start to move to DC Metro move there as well.




On Coal by late 2030s it will long but be dead , and by then even the population of WV will have given up on it since a large amount of people who live there by then may be people who dont even remember the days of coal.


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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2019, 01:19:38 AM »

Ugh, imagine a Dem prez loses control of the senate because of this. 2020 senate majority is already an uphill climb, but losing one more would almost certainly be a gift for the GOP and the old turtle.
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« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2019, 01:52:18 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.
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« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2019, 02:47:52 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.

As far as I know, yes. Manchin could run for Governor while still serving in the Senate. It would be a juggling act, but he could do it. Though if he does win the gubernatorial election, a holdover would only hold the seat through a special election in 2022, which would almost certainly be won by the Republicans.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2019, 03:28:05 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.

As far as I know, yes. Manchin could run for Governor while still serving in the Senate. It would be a juggling act, but he could do it. Though if he does win the gubernatorial election, a holdover would only hold the seat through a special election in 2022, which would almost certainly be won by the Republicans.

That's correct, but the GOP could change the state law and trigger a special election within a few months (like the case in MA or VT). Manchin could veto, but the WV gov's veto can be overriden by a simple majority. Or the GOP changes the state law during the lame duck while Justice is still serving. I'm sure they would do it, especially if the senate is 50-50 after the 2020 elections.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2019, 07:44:58 AM »

His aides don't even know what he's gonna do that's great.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2019, 08:12:52 AM »

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Gracile
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« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2019, 08:47:37 AM »



Is this person a reputable source? (They only have 22 followers...)
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #16 on: September 03, 2019, 08:48:48 AM »

One of the most annoying Senator. This guy is obsessed by making the headlines.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: September 03, 2019, 08:59:30 AM »

me rn

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scutosaurus
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« Reply #18 on: September 03, 2019, 09:06:18 AM »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #19 on: September 03, 2019, 09:06:57 AM »

Further confirmation:

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Politician
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« Reply #20 on: September 03, 2019, 09:07:01 AM »



Manchin OUT.
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Holmes
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« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2019, 09:11:19 AM »

Who's ready for Justice vs Blankenship next year?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #22 on: September 03, 2019, 09:12:13 AM »

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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #23 on: September 03, 2019, 09:14:19 AM »

Who's ready for Justice vs Blankenship next year?

Count me in dude!
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: September 03, 2019, 09:17:50 AM »

Well what the hell was the point of 2018?

I hold the same view. Of course, if Manchin does lose the gubernatorial race against Justice, then he will still have four years left to his Senate term. At any rate, I think 2018 could end up being the last Democratic statewide victory in the state for many decades to come.

He doesn't have to give up his seat? Everybody here has been giving me the opposite impression.

As far as I know, yes. Manchin could run for Governor while still serving in the Senate. It would be a juggling act, but he could do it. Though if he does win the gubernatorial election, a holdover would only hold the seat through a special election in 2022, which would almost certainly be won by the Republicans.

That's correct, but the GOP could change the state law and trigger a special election within a few months (like the case in MA or VT). Manchin could veto, but the WV gov's veto can be overriden by a simple majority. Or the GOP changes the state law during the lame duck while Justice is still serving. I'm sure they would do it, especially if the senate is 50-50 after the 2020 elections.

Fortunately, we won't even have to worry about this hypothetical, now that Manchin has decided to stay in the Senate.
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