Democrats will lose that WV Senate seat two years early if Manchin does win (since there's no guarantee that he will beat Justice). After 2018, they will not win another Senatorial election in West Virginia for maybe the next 70 years.
No they will win it long before that even if current trends continue for decades to come. Reason is by the mid-late 2030s the DC suburbs may very well have expanded into WV and once that happens , the WV GOP will collapse faster than the VA GOP did after 2004 because unlike the VA GOP they wont have anything similar to the Richmond Suburbs, Virginia beach or any place they can make gains like SW VA to keep them afloat.
If current trends continue till 2036, the GOP will be a total rump party. So very likely is we will be in a new realigning era by then and we have no idea how that map will look like.
You seriously think that the "suburban" counties in the far northeastern part of the state are going to grow that much over the next few decades? I mean, I wouldn't discount it, but I doubt they would have much influence on the state's politics. Demographic trends there overwhelmingly favor the Republicans, and the Democrats' advocacy for climate change policies, to say nothing of their stances on gun control, gay rights, abortion, etc. is definitely not doing them any favors in West Virginia. I will admit that 70 years might be too long, but it's not entirely out of the equation either. I'll remind you that Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator in 86 years-even though that streak could end in 2020 if Kobach becomes the Republican nominee there.
Gotta agree with this post in general. I think that the three far eastern Panhandle counties (Jefferson (this one especially), Berkeley, and Morgan) will grow in size and trend Democratic, but I don’t think that they would be able to swing the state to being anything less than Likely R.
