If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz

[Pericles]

Cruz might have win the nomination, depending on when t became a two-way race (though if he did better earlier it could have still been a brokered convention).

[Pericles]

Cruz might have win the nomination, depending on when t became a two-way race (though if he did better earlier it could have still been a brokered convention).

It’s two-way from the very beginning. Nobody else ever runs.

Then I think Cruz would probably win, Trump did initially have limited appeal to supporters of the other candidates but surged when the other candidates were mathematically eliminated so it was either jump on the Trump bandwagon or risk the chaos of a brokered convention which might 'rig' the outcome.

[Pericles]

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

Trump benefited from the field being split, if either Cruz or Rubio had emerged as his main opponent early on (so before Super Tuesday) then he probably would not have been nominated.
https://www.fairvote.org/ranked_choice_poll_of_gop_voters_yields_insights
https://www.fairvote.org/new_polls_show_that_gop_split_vote_problem_continues