If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz
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  If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz
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Author Topic: If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz  (Read 2047 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: August 31, 2019, 08:06:28 PM »

What would the map look like?
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Pericles
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2019, 05:37:50 AM »

Cruz might have win the nomination, depending on when t became a two-way race (though if he did better earlier it could have still been a brokered convention).
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2019, 06:20:59 AM »

The world ends because Cruz is so close to ruining everything
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pops
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2019, 11:47:38 AM »

Cruz would lose every primary, except Utah
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 08:10:37 PM »

Cruz might have win the nomination, depending on when t became a two-way race (though if he did better earlier it could have still been a brokered convention).
It’s two-way from the very beginning. Nobody else ever runs.
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Pericles
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2019, 08:15:15 PM »

Cruz might have win the nomination, depending on when t became a two-way race (though if he did better earlier it could have still been a brokered convention).
It’s two-way from the very beginning. Nobody else ever runs.

Then I think Cruz would probably win, Trump did initially have limited appeal to supporters of the other candidates but surged when the other candidates were mathematically eliminated so it was either jump on the Trump bandwagon or risk the chaos of a brokered convention which might 'rig' the outcome.
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ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #6 on: September 04, 2019, 08:23:38 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.
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Matty
boshembechle
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« Reply #7 on: September 04, 2019, 11:08:24 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2019, 04:57:59 AM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

Trump benefited from the field being split, if either Cruz or Rubio had emerged as his main opponent early on (so before Super Tuesday) then he probably would not have been nominated.
https://www.fairvote.org/ranked_choice_poll_of_gop_voters_yields_insights
https://www.fairvote.org/new_polls_show_that_gop_split_vote_problem_continues
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Vosem
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« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2019, 04:26:13 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

Only Bush trailed Trump in head-to-heads.

Cruz would've won pretty comfortably.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2019, 04:01:26 AM »

In all seriousness, if they were the only two ones, then Trump wins by a even bigger margin as there would be no extra moderate options and many of them would have jumped to Trump if they were feeling forced to choose one of the two of them
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2019, 06:59:00 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

Only Bush trailed Trump in head-to-heads.

Cruz would've won pretty comfortably.

Kind of. Kasich’s supporters were fairly close to an even split, but they were for Trump over Cruz by the end. Cruz’s nasty campaign (especially against the Ben Carson) was badly viewed by most Republicans.
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I Can Now Die Happy
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2019, 09:22:05 PM »

My go-to answer when it comes to these scenarios is usually: "Trump would win"
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: October 14, 2019, 10:41:25 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

PPP tended to poll 2-way hypothetical matchups in just about every poll, and they had Cruz and Trump just about tied in a hypothetical 2-way race most of the time, despite Trump being well ahead of Cruz when the rest of the candidates were included.

November:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_111915.pdf

Cruz 46%
Trump 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 7 points ahead of 2nd place (Carson) and 12 points ahead of Cruz.

December:

pdf link

Trump 45%
Cruz 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 16 points ahead of Cruz, who was in 2nd place.

February:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

Cruz 47%
Trump 41%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 4 points ahead of Cruz and Rubio, who were tied for 2nd place.

March:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdf

Trump 46%
Cruz 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 10 points ahead of Cruz, who was in 2nd place.

It’s also fun to remember how much the supporters of each of the final three GOP candidates hated the opposing candidates by the time primary season was winding down:

Some more Republican numbers:

Cruz favorability margin among…
Kasich supporters: -36%
Trump supporters: -24%

Kasich favorability margin among…
Cruz supporters: -3%
Trump supporters: -27%

Trump favorability margin among…
Cruz supporters: -31%
Kasich supporters: -60% (lol)
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