If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz (user search)
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  If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz (search mode)
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Author Topic: If the GOP primary was just Trump v. Cruz  (Read 2128 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« on: October 14, 2019, 10:41:25 PM »

For most of the primary season, Trump trailed his rivals in hypothetical head to head polls.

is this true? I recall the opposite, actually.

PPP tended to poll 2-way hypothetical matchups in just about every poll, and they had Cruz and Trump just about tied in a hypothetical 2-way race most of the time, despite Trump being well ahead of Cruz when the rest of the candidates were included.

November:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_111915.pdf

Cruz 46%
Trump 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 7 points ahead of 2nd place (Carson) and 12 points ahead of Cruz.

December:

pdf link

Trump 45%
Cruz 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 16 points ahead of Cruz, who was in 2nd place.

February:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_20416.pdf

Cruz 47%
Trump 41%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 4 points ahead of Cruz and Rubio, who were tied for 2nd place.

March:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_National_32916.pdf

Trump 46%
Cruz 44%

Whereas in that same poll, if you include all the candidates, Trump was 10 points ahead of Cruz, who was in 2nd place.

It’s also fun to remember how much the supporters of each of the final three GOP candidates hated the opposing candidates by the time primary season was winding down:

Some more Republican numbers:

Cruz favorability margin among…
Kasich supporters: -36%
Trump supporters: -24%

Kasich favorability margin among…
Cruz supporters: -3%
Trump supporters: -27%

Trump favorability margin among…
Cruz supporters: -31%
Kasich supporters: -60% (lol)
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