WV-MetroNews: Manchin +10

[Skye]

Manchin (D) 49
Justice (R) 39

GOP Primary:
Justice 53
Thrasher 19
Folk 12

Justice approval: 42/40
Manchin approval: 49/37
Trump approval: 54/38

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/08/30/west-virginia-poll-if-manchin-gets-in-right-now-he-would-beat-justice/

[Sir Mohamed]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

[Zaybay]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They should poll Blankenship instead of Manchin

[Frenchrepublican]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

Lol. Do you really believe that Manchin would have the opportunity to appoint someone for 2 years ? The republican legislature could very easily change the law and could impose that a special election must be held in the six months after the vacancy and thus by July 2020 republicans would take the seat

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why Blankenship should run for Gov instead of Manchin

[Zaybay]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

Lol. Do you really believe that Manchin would have the opportunity to appoint someone for 2 years ? The republican legislature could very easily change the law and could impose that a special election must be held in the six months after the vacancy and thus by July 2020 republicans would take the seat

To change the law, a supermajority is required. Surprisingly, the WVGOP doesnt have that yet in either chamber.

[Politician]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

Lol. Do you really believe that Manchin would have the opportunity to appoint someone for 2 years ? The republican legislature could very easily change the law and could impose that a special election must be held in the six months after the vacancy and thus by July 2020 republicans would take the seat

To change the law, a supermajority is required. Surprisingly, the WVGOP doesnt have that yet in either chamber.

In West Virginia a supermajority is literally 50%

[Sir Mohamed]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

Lol. Do you really believe that Manchin would have the opportunity to appoint someone for 2 years ? The republican legislature could very easily change the law and could impose that a special election must be held in the six months after the vacancy and thus by July 2020 republicans would take the seat

To change the law, a supermajority is required. Surprisingly, the WVGOP doesnt have that yet in either chamber.

This specific law? Because as far as I know, the WV gov's veto can be overturned by a simple majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blankenship is the Dems best hope in this seat

[Frenchrepublican]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

Lol. Do you really believe that Manchin would have the opportunity to appoint someone for 2 years ? The republican legislature could very easily change the law and could impose that a special election must be held in the six months after the vacancy and thus by July 2020 republicans would take the seat

To change the law, a supermajority is required. Surprisingly, the WVGOP doesnt have that yet in either chamber.

In West Virginia a supermajority is literally 50%

This

[Zaybay]

Its a part of the state constitution that Manchin gets to make a replacement. To change that you need a supermajority of 2/3rds.

Manchin can even set the date of the election, though there is a requirement on how late/early it can be held. Its all a part of the state constitution, which the Rs cannot change.

[Skye]

Even if Manchin wins and appoints a D senator, how likely will it be that he/she wins reelection? Manchin literally squeaked by 3 points in an extremely favorable environment for Democrats against a flawed candidate. Me thinks an appointed Senator would likely be in a position similar to Doug Jones right now.

PD: OC is killing it in this thread lol.

[Kyng]

Blankenship is the Dems best hope in this seat

Does Blankenship have anything going for him at all, except for the (D) next to his name?

(And even that's most likely temporary: it's not hard to see him pulling a Jim Justice, and returning to the GOP at the earliest convenient opportunity. In fact, I'd be more surprised if he doesn't do this. Manchin, on the other hand, seems likely to remain a Democrat at least until he leaves elected office)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Don't do it Manchin! I will support whoever it takes to beat you if you enter, because you have to stay in the senate for the rest of your term! But it just seems like this guy just never falls.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

lol Zaybay. If Manchin won the gov race and got to pick his replacement in the senate, he would probably pick a Manchin clone like Earl Ray Tomblin,  Steve Williams, Martin West, etc.

[Zaybay]

Manchin should maintain his seat instead for running for the powerless WV governorship. If he were to give the seat to a GOPer, it would be very disloyal to the party and make a senate takeback very unlikely in 2020 even if we elect a Dem prez.

Manchin gets to make an appointment to the senate seat in the case that he wins, so what would happen is that we would get a D senator(one more likely to tow the party line) for 2 years, compared to having Manchin(who is Manchin) for 4 years before he retires.

lol Zaybay. If Manchin won the gov race and got to pick his replacement in the senate, he would probably pick a Manchin clone like Earl Ray Tomblin,  Steve Williams, Martin West, etc.

Highly doubtful. He's more likely to pick someone Schumer wants in the senate seat(I.E, a D partisan) just like he did back in 2009 when Reid pressured Manchin to pick Goodwin. Theres no reason for him to pick a ConservaDem, and Manchin has already shown hes able to make very Liberal appointments.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin sees Dems chances of winning the Senate go up, Blankenship can run against Justice. That way Ojeda can replace him in 2024. Manchin in a Dem controlled Senate can pass his background checks

[Skill and Chance]

Its a part of the state constitution that Manchin gets to make a replacement. To change that you need a supermajority of 2/3rds.

Manchin can even set the date of the election, though there is a requirement on how late/early it can be held. Its all a part of the state constitution, which the Rs cannot change.

Interesting, so Manchin running for governor would only move the next senate election (and near inevitable Dem loss of the seat) up to 2022 vs. 2024?  If so, Manchin probably doesn't have any operational impact on a hypothetical Dem trifecta in 2021-22.  It might even make it easier for them to pass their agenda if the WV-SEN appointee follows the party line more than Manchin, perhaps in anticipation of a cabinet appointment in December 2022.  

[IceSpear]

Manchin also led Fat Pat by huge margins early on, and we saw how that turned out.

Anyway, I'm officially and unironically endorsing Justice if Manchin runs. The Senate seat is far more valuable than the worthless figurehead West Virginia governorship, where a veto can be overriden with a simple majority. Not to mention that WV voters deserve Justice anyway, no pun intended.

[Calthrina950]

Manchin also led Fat Pat by huge margins early on, and we saw how that turned out.

Anyway, I'm officially and unironically endorsing Justice if Manchin runs. The Senate seat is far more valuable than the worthless figurehead West Virginia governorship, where a veto can be overriden with a simple majority. Not to mention that WV voters deserve Justice anyway, no pun intended.

Exactly this. I'm not sure if Manchin would even win the gubernatorial race, if he decided to run. And as has been noted elsewhere, if he did somehow win and gave up his Senate seat, Republicans would gain it two years ahead of schedule. Manchin should save himself the potentiality of an embarrassing defeat and keep to his current Senate seat until his term ends, and then ride out into the sunset. West Virginia is not going to elect another Democrat for a very long time.

[Pericles]

I think Manchin would win, perhaps by a narrow margin, as he did win the Senate race after all and the nationwide Democratic Party would weigh him down less in a gubernatorial race which is less polarized. Justice also isn't very popular. However, Manchin should stick with the Senate seat, he wouldn't be very powerful as Governor and would cost the Democrats an important Senate seat.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Manchin would win rather easily. Justice is unpopular, and Republican voters would rather have the Senate seat than the Governorship, methinks.

[IceSpear]

I think Manchin would win rather easily. Justice is unpopular, and Republican voters would rather have the Senate seat than the Governorship, methinks.

A +2 approval rating is not unpopular.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin isnt leaving the Senate until 2024, the Dems will likely need his seat in 2020 or 2022 to take majority