How many SCOTUS nominations, 2021-2025?

[Skill and Chance]

That Obama only obtained 2 appointments across 2 terms when Trump may get 3 in a single tells of the pressing need for a reform of Scotus: either more Justices, or a regular turnover (18 years sounded like a reasonable compromise).


Clarence Thomas will only turn 80 in 2028, so even with 2 Democratic terms a third opening is unlikely.

Robert and Alito will only retire in the late 2030s, and Trump's two pawns might still be around in the 2050s.

Obama had two vacancies to fill in his first term. One was in his his first year, and one was in his second year. Likewise Trump filled one seat in his first year and one in his second.

Obama had a third vacancy as well but was blocked by the Senate refusing to vote on it. Which is why the best solution is to require automatic up or down votes in the Senate, but there is a reason that "reasonable solution" is skipped in favor of court packing.

Also once the court is packed, it won't stop. Each side will pack it when they have a trifecta and the court will just reflect the ruling majority as opposed to being a check on its power.  

The best solution is to cap the size of the court and require up or down votes on all nominees.

If any president has a legit gripe about being denied influence on SCOTUS, it's Carter.  Nixon/Ford get 5 Justices between them, then he gets none and Reagan gets to appoint 4.  At least it's been consistently 2 Justices/president since then.

[Skill and Chance]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

[Skill and Chance]

RBG, Thomas and Breyer are 3 potential candidates to leave the court between this time. RBG is very old and has had many health impasses, and unfortunatley I can see her passing away between 2021-2025. Breyer's old age may catch up to him and force him off the court. I could see RBG and/or Breyer retiring if a Democrat wins in 2020. Thomas could retire if Trump wins again in 2020, meaning Trump would have 3, but i'm gonna say 2.

If Trump gets reelected, the senate likely flips to a Dem majority in 2022, and they would surely hold any SCOTUS vacancies open until at least 2025 in retaliation for Merrick Garland.  So the window for a 3rd Trump appointment is likely 3 years max.  It's clear Ginsburg and Breyer aren't leaving voluntarily while Trump is president.  I do think there's a decent chance Thomas retires next year to ensure a Republican president and senate fills his seat.   

[Skill and Chance]

Bump

So after RBG's passing and Biden likely to be elected, I'm changing my prediction to one seat to fill. In the 2021-25, Biden will, in all likelyhood, only pick a replacement for Stephen Breyer. I don't see another seat opening up unless someone dies unexpectedly from collapsing health or an accident. Thomas is just 72, and he I think he's the kind of dude who sticks as long until a GOP prez can name his successor. He may retire in the next term if Trump is reelected. Alito is just turning 70 this year, so he could go for another decade. Roberts, at 65, isn't retiring soon either.

Roberts has also had health issues, although it's unclear how serious they are. This being said, the most likely scenario to my mind is Biden picks Breyers replacement and maybe gets Thomas or Roberts if something unfortunate happens.

So in the next ~4 years probably one appointment maybe two.

It would be strategically smart for McConnell to let Biden replace Breyer with a similar moderate liberal, but that’s the only SCOTUS appointment Biden is getting unless both the Georgia senate seats flip.