How many SCOTUS nominations, 2021-2025?

[Sir Mohamed]

What's your prediction, how many SCOTUS nominations will be made during the next presidential term from January 2021 to January 2025? Regardless of who's prez.



My prediction as of today is RBG and Breyer hang on to 2021 and will both retire the same year, assuming a Dem is elected in 2020. If Trump wins again, I doubt RBG will last to 2025 and hand Trump one more nomination in 2021 or 2022, shifting the court balance to 6-3 conservative. Breyer may just make it to 2025 if we end up with 4 more years of Trump.

I don't think another seat will open up during that term of office, but Thomas and/or Alito may retire during the 2025-29 term. Assuming another Dem victory in 2024 (either the prez is reelected or Biden/Sanders serve just 4 years) we may finally get a liberal majority then.

[Del Tachi]

Thomas should retire in 2021-25 if there's a GOP White House/Senate. 

[ShadowRocket]

I think two as well. I hate to be morbid, but I doubt that RBG makes it until 2025. So she either passes away before then and a reelected Trump picks her successor, or she retires early on the new Democratic President's term. I would also imagine that the chances of either Breyer or Thomas retiring are relatively high depending on who is President during that time frame. 

[Epaminondas]

That Obama only obtained 2 appointments across 2 terms when Trump may get 3 in a single tells of the pressing need for a reform of Scotus: either more Justices, or a regular turnover (18 years sounded like a reasonable compromise).


Clarence Thomas will only turn 80 in 2028, so even with 2 Democratic terms a third opening is unlikely.

Robert and Alito will only retire in the late 2030s, and Trump's two pawns might still be around in the 2050s.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

That Obama only obtained 2 appointments across 2 terms when Trump may get 3 in a single tells of the pressing need for a reform of Scotus: either more Justices, or a regular turnover (18 years sounded like a reasonable compromise).


Clarence Thomas will only turn 80 in 2028, so even with 2 Democratic terms a third opening is unlikely.

Robert and Alito will only retire in the late 2030s, and Trump's two pawns might still be around in the 2050s.

Obama had two vacancies to fill in his first term. One was in his his first year, and one was in his second year. Likewise Trump filled one seat in his first year and one in his second.

Obama had a third vacancy as well but was blocked by the Senate refusing to vote on it. Which is why the best solution is to require automatic up or down votes in the Senate, but there is a reason that "reasonable solution" is skipped in favor of court packing.

Also once the court is packed, it won't stop. Each side will pack it when they have a trifecta and the court will just reflect the ruling majority as opposed to being a check on its power.  

The best solution is to cap the size of the court and require up or down votes on all nominees.

[Skill and Chance]

That Obama only obtained 2 appointments across 2 terms when Trump may get 3 in a single tells of the pressing need for a reform of Scotus: either more Justices, or a regular turnover (18 years sounded like a reasonable compromise).


Clarence Thomas will only turn 80 in 2028, so even with 2 Democratic terms a third opening is unlikely.

Robert and Alito will only retire in the late 2030s, and Trump's two pawns might still be around in the 2050s.

Obama had two vacancies to fill in his first term. One was in his his first year, and one was in his second year. Likewise Trump filled one seat in his first year and one in his second.

Obama had a third vacancy as well but was blocked by the Senate refusing to vote on it. Which is why the best solution is to require automatic up or down votes in the Senate, but there is a reason that "reasonable solution" is skipped in favor of court packing.

Also once the court is packed, it won't stop. Each side will pack it when they have a trifecta and the court will just reflect the ruling majority as opposed to being a check on its power.  

The best solution is to cap the size of the court and require up or down votes on all nominees.

If any president has a legit gripe about being denied influence on SCOTUS, it's Carter.  Nixon/Ford get 5 Justices between them, then he gets none and Reagan gets to appoint 4.  At least it's been consistently 2 Justices/president since then.

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

If Trump wins:
Ginsburg dies, and Thomas retires.

If any Democrat wins:
Ginsburg will either die or retire. Breyer will be the other retiree.

[MarkD]

Just two Justices will leave the Court: Ginsburg and Breyer.

Clarence Thomas is on a track that could make him the longest-serving Justice ever. The current record is held by William O. Douglas, who was appointed when he was 40 years old, served for 36 and a half years, then retired when he was 77. Thomas was appointed when he was 43, and if he stays until 2028 when he's 80 years old, he will surpass Douglas's record. I think Thomas wants to do that.

[President Johnson]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

[Sir Mohamed]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

[Skill and Chance]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

[Orser67]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

[Xeuma]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

[Orser67]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

Ok? Do you think that will make him leave office between 2021 and 2025? Otherwise it seems irrelevant to this thread and to my point.

[Xeuma]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

Ok? Do you think that will make him leave office between 2021 and 2025? Otherwise it seems irrelevant to this thread and to my point.

Kavanaugh has been dominating the Democratic field. Where do you think this talk of packing the court came from?

[Orser67]

2, Ginsburg and Breyer, regardless of the outcome of the 2020 election.

This, but I really hope Thomas steps down and his replacement is a Democratic appointed judge.

I doubt that happens unless he falls sick. Wouldn't be surprised if for some reason Alito retires sooner.

SC is a dilema for Dems, despite just one more seat is needed for a liberal majority. The conservative justices are all relatively young, while Dems are endangered lose more ground. A 2 term prez elected in 2020 most likely wouldn't shift court balance, he or she could only ensure RBG and Breyer are replaced with liberals. We actually need to win the next 3 or 4 elections in a row to gain a liberal majority.

God forbid if Mr. Trump gets reelected, he may not only replace RBG and Breyer with right wing hacks, Thomas may also retire in 2022/23 and be replaced by a young conservative. In this case, the SC would be lost for 30 years.

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

Ok? Do you think that will make him leave office between 2021 and 2025? Otherwise it seems irrelevant to this thread and to my point.

Kavanaugh has been dominating the Democratic field. Where do you think this talk of packing the court came from?

I still don't understand what point you are trying to make in the context of this thread.

[DeSantis4Prez]

RBG, Thomas and Breyer are 3 potential candidates to leave the court between this time. RBG is very old and has had many health impasses, and unfortunatley I can see her passing away between 2021-2025. Breyer's old age may catch up to him and force him off the court. I could see RBG and/or Breyer retiring if a Democrat wins in 2020. Thomas could retire if Trump wins again in 2020, meaning Trump would have 3, but i'm gonna say 2.

[Skill and Chance]

RBG, Thomas and Breyer are 3 potential candidates to leave the court between this time. RBG is very old and has had many health impasses, and unfortunatley I can see her passing away between 2021-2025. Breyer's old age may catch up to him and force him off the court. I could see RBG and/or Breyer retiring if a Democrat wins in 2020. Thomas could retire if Trump wins again in 2020, meaning Trump would have 3, but i'm gonna say 2.

If Trump gets reelected, the senate likely flips to a Dem majority in 2022, and they would surely hold any SCOTUS vacancies open until at least 2025 in retaliation for Merrick Garland.  So the window for a 3rd Trump appointment is likely 3 years max.  It's clear Ginsburg and Breyer aren't leaving voluntarily while Trump is president.  I do think there's a decent chance Thomas retires next year to ensure a Republican president and senate fills his seat.   

[Person Man]

RBG, Thomas and Breyer are 3 potential candidates to leave the court between this time. RBG is very old and has had many health impasses, and unfortunatley I can see her passing away between 2021-2025. Breyer's old age may catch up to him and force him off the court. I could see RBG and/or Breyer retiring if a Democrat wins in 2020. Thomas could retire if Trump wins again in 2020, meaning Trump would have 3, but i'm gonna say 2.

If Trump gets reelected, the senate likely flips to a Dem majority in 2022, and they would surely hold any SCOTUS vacancies open until at least 2025 in retaliation for Merrick Garland.  So the window for a 3rd Trump appointment is likely 3 years max.  It's clear Ginsburg and Breyer aren't leaving voluntarily while Trump is president.  I do think there's a decent chance Thomas retires next year to ensure a Republican president and senate fills his seat.    

I'll go with this. I think RBG can make it to 2023 and that Breyer can make it to 2025. Maybe Thomas retires? I'm going to go with the answer that Trump gets one more and gets another vacancy he can't fill. Deep down I kind of hope he tries to fill it in a "recess appointment".

[McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero]

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

Thomas supposedly would have had his entire career undermined by libelous and blatantly false claims of sexual misconduct as well. Likewise, Joe Biden--the same Chairman of the Judiciary Committee who recognized this blatantly falsified allegation as a hoax--said that he would "steal" a seat from HW if a Justice died or retired in 1992. The Senate lacks any constitutional obligation to confirm an appointment--in fact, the purpose of requiring their confirmation for an appointee to take office is intended to prevent Presidents from making unilateral appointments. And there's no obligation for the Senate to dismiss the vast majority of witnesses who testify that allegations are not true to satisfy your belief that there is no standard for evidence in the Senate, either.

[Xeuma]

What upsets me most is McConnell stole 1 seat; if HRC was elected prez, we could have a 6-3 majority.

Kennedy would not have retired for HRC in 2018, and a giant R senate majority would have been assured after the 2018 election.  It's also no sure thing that Democrats would control the Senate, nor that Ginsburg and Breyer would both have retired during 2017-18.  So the best Dem scenario in an HRC win would have been a 5/4 majority with 66-year-old Garland, who is probably more moderate than Breyer, as the deciding vote, and a Republican senate basically assured for the next 10 years.

In a Trump reelection, there is also likely to be a Dem senate after the 2022 election, as that is the most Dem-favoring senate map.  There is no way they confirm any Trump SCOTUS appointments after the Obama-Garland debacle in 2016. 

Dem appointees won't have a SCOTUS majority again until the coalitions change enough to give them a long term senate majority.

A Dem majority is unlikely in the next decade, but I wouldn't rule it out. Alito and Thomas are or will be in their 70s by the time the next Dem takes office; Roberts is in his mid-60s and has had some health problems over the years. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are in their 50s so they shouldn't be much of a concern, but there's always a chance one of them suddenly develops health problems or some kind of huge scandal.

In a best-case scenario for Democrats, Ginsburg and Breyer hang on until 2020, when Democrats win the presidency and the Senate. The party benefits from a (relatively) good map in 2022, and one of the five Republican justices leaves office between 2021 and 2025.

Uhh, I don't know if you've heard, but Kavanaugh's entire judicial career will be undermined by the huge scandal of him, yknow, being a rapist.

Thomas supposedly would have had his entire career undermined by libelous and blatantly false claims of sexual misconduct as well. Likewise, Joe Biden--the same Chairman of the Judiciary Committee who recognized this blatantly falsified allegation as a hoax--said that he would "steal" a seat from HW if a Justice died or retired in 1992. The Senate lacks any constitutional obligation to confirm an appointment--in fact, the purpose of requiring their confirmation for an appointee to take office is intended to prevent Presidents from making unilateral appointments. And there's no obligation for the Senate to dismiss the vast majority of witnesses who testify that allegations are not true to satisfy your belief that there is no standard for evidence in the Senate, either.

If your argument is that 1) other people haven't done the same thing at all and 2) its technically not against the rules, perhaps you should re-evaluate.

[Sir Mohamed]

Bump

So after RBG's passing and Biden likely to be elected, I'm changing my prediction to one seat to fill. In the 2021-25, Biden will, in all likelyhood, only pick a replacement for Stephen Breyer. I don't see another seat opening up unless someone dies unexpectedly from collapsing health or an accident. Thomas is just 72, and he I think he's the kind of dude who sticks as long until a GOP prez can name his successor. He may retire in the next term if Trump is reelected. Alito is just turning 70 this year, so he could go for another decade. Roberts, at 65, isn't retiring soon either.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Bump

So after RBG's passing and Biden likely to be elected, I'm changing my prediction to one seat to fill. In the 2021-25, Biden will, in all likelyhood, only pick a replacement for Stephen Breyer. I don't see another seat opening up unless someone dies unexpectedly from collapsing health or an accident. Thomas is just 72, and he I think he's the kind of dude who sticks as long until a GOP prez can name his successor. He may retire in the next term if Trump is reelected. Alito is just turning 70 this year, so he could go for another decade. Roberts, at 65, isn't retiring soon either.

The actuarial tables aren't great for Thomas as an obese black man. I do doubt he has less than four years left, though.

I agree that the likeliest answer is Biden gets one nomination if the Democrats don't go through with adding seats and three nominations if they do.

[brucejoel99]

Bump

So after RBG's passing and Biden likely to be elected, I'm changing my prediction to one seat to fill. In the 2021-25, Biden will, in all likelyhood, only pick a replacement for Stephen Breyer. I don't see another seat opening up unless someone dies unexpectedly from collapsing health or an accident. Thomas is just 72, and he I think he's the kind of dude who sticks as long until a GOP prez can name his successor. He may retire in the next term if Trump is reelected. Alito is just turning 70 this year, so he could go for another decade. Roberts, at 65, isn't retiring soon either.

The actuarial tables aren't great for Thomas as an obese black man. I do doubt he has less than four years left, though.

I agree that the likeliest answer is Biden gets one nomination if the Democrats don't go through with adding seats and three nominations if they do.

If they go through with expanding the Court, then I don't see them 'only' adding 2 seats so as to result in a 5-5-1 Court with Roberts as the swing. Remember that if Garland's seat wasn't stolen & RBG were replaced by Biden, the Court would be a 5-4 liberal court right now, with even Roberts in the minority. This isn't a time for half-measures, so they're either gonna go in all the way (i.e. probably 13 but perhaps even 15 seats) or not go in at all.

[tosk]

Bump

So after RBG's passing and Biden likely to be elected, I'm changing my prediction to one seat to fill. In the 2021-25, Biden will, in all likelyhood, only pick a replacement for Stephen Breyer. I don't see another seat opening up unless someone dies unexpectedly from collapsing health or an accident. Thomas is just 72, and he I think he's the kind of dude who sticks as long until a GOP prez can name his successor. He may retire in the next term if Trump is reelected. Alito is just turning 70 this year, so he could go for another decade. Roberts, at 65, isn't retiring soon either.

Roberts has also had health issues, although it's unclear how serious they are. This being said, the most likely scenario to my mind is Biden picks Breyers replacement and maybe gets Thomas or Roberts if something unfortunate happens.

So in the next ~4 years probably one appointment maybe two.