August Gubernatorial Predictions (user search)
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  August Gubernatorial Predictions (search mode)
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Author Topic: August Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 1632 times)
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

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« on: August 27, 2019, 07:33:55 AM »

Kentucky: Beshear 49-46-6
Louisiana: Edwards 53-35-8
Mississippi: Reeves 51-46
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Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 28, 2019, 02:56:37 PM »

More like emphasizing the point. Of course, there are other factors at work, but polarization will certainly make it a tough row for Democrats to cut through.

Polarization is so unbelievably strong that Larry Hogan can win by double digits in a Democratic tsunami in one of the most Democratic and "inelastic" states in the country and a Democrat can win a federal race in a Trump +42 state?

Polarization isn't the "end all, be all", but it has certainly made it more difficult for Democrats and Republicans alike to win on territory hostile to their party. Just look at the three Democratic Senators in strong Trump states who were defeated last year, in that same "wave" environment. And I've made clear that I believe Edwards will win reelection, but he will do worse than in 2015. Abraham is not a strong opponent, but he doesn't have the same kind of ethical or political baggage that Vitter did. And Mississippi is notorious for its racial polarization, and a gubernatorial race is quite different from an AG one.
Sure, but you also had Democratic senators from WV and MT re-elected.
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