August Gubernatorial Predictions

[ElectionsGuy]

Kentucky

Bevin: 51%
Beshear: 46%

Louisiana

Edwards: 48%
Abraham: 40%
Others: 12%

Edwards: 53%
Abraham: 47%

Mississippi

Reeves: 54%
Hood: 45%

[😥]

Kentucky

Beshear: 49%
Bevin: 47%

Louisiana

Edwards: 52%
Abraham: 39%
Others: 9%

Mississippi

Reeves: 50%
Hood: 48%

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Kentucky
Bevin: 51%
Beshear: 45%
Other: ~4%

Louisiana
Edwards: 54%
Abraham: 46%

Mississippi
Reeves: 55%
Hood: 45%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Kentucky

Beshear: 52%
Bevin: 46%


Louisiana

Edwards: 51%
Abraham: 39%
Others: 10%



Mississippi

Reeves: 53%
Hood: 45%

[DINGO Joe]

Beshear 48-45-7
Edwards 54-37-9
Hood-50-49

[Politician]

Kentucky: Beshear 49-46-6
Louisiana: Edwards 53-35-8
Mississippi: Reeves 51-46

[Skye]

KY:
Bevin (R) 50
Beshear (D) 47

MS:
Reeves (R) 51
Hood (D) 46

LA:
Edwards (D) 47
Abram (R) 40

[Frenchrepublican]

KY:
Bevin (R) : 50
Beshear (D) : 44

MS:
Reeves (R) : 54
Hood (D) : 45

LA:
Edwards (D) : 45
Abram (R) : 38

LA runoff :
Edwards (D) : 52
Abram (R) : 48

I hope I’m wrong on LA

[Sir Mohamed]

KY
✓ Bevin (R, inc.): 53.3%
Beshear (D): 44.2%


LA
Bel Edwards (D, inc.): 46.0%
Abram (R): 36.5%

✓ Bel Edwards (D, inc.): 51.9%
Abram (R): 48.1%


MS
✓ Reeves (R): 54.8%
Hood (D): 43.9%

[Mr. Smith]

KY

Bevin: 52%
Beshear: 47%

LA

Initial:

Edwards: 48%
Abraham: 41%
Rispone: 9%

Run-Off

Abraham: 51%
Edwards: 48%

MS

Reeves: 51%
Hood: 48%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People really think Hood is going to do worse than Espy based on shoddy Survey Monkey polls? Smh

[Frenchrepublican]

People really think Hood is going to do worse than Espy based on shoddy Survey Monkey polls? Smh

Why would it be impossible ? Espy is not the new D floor in MS. Anyway there are other reasons, besides the SurveyMonkey poll, to believe that Hood will lose, for example just look at primary numbers, 382,000 people voted in the R primary while only 302,000 voted in the D primary (the first time in the modern history that it happened)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

People really think Hood is going to do worse than Espy based on shoddy Survey Monkey polls? Smh

Why would it be impossible ? Espy is not the new D floor in MS. Anyway there are other reasons, besides the SurveyMonkey poll, to believe that Hood will lose, for example just look at primary numbers, 382,000 people voted in the R primary while only 302,000 voted in the D primary (the first time in the modern history that it happened)

Aside from the  absurdity of comparing a contested Republican primary to a non-contested Democratic primary as evidence, you are misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying Hood will win. I’m just highly skeptical he’ll do worse than Espy considering Hood has a long history of performing exceptionally well. It’s not hard at all to see him getting 47% or better

[Frenchrepublican]

People really think Hood is going to do worse than Espy based on shoddy Survey Monkey polls? Smh

Why would it be impossible ? Espy is not the new D floor in MS. Anyway there are other reasons, besides the SurveyMonkey poll, to believe that Hood will lose, for example just look at primary numbers, 382,000 people voted in the R primary while only 302,000 voted in the D primary (the first time in the modern history that it happened)

Aside from the  absurdity of comparing a contested Republican primary to a non-contested Democratic primary as evidence, you are misinterpreting what I’m saying. I’m not saying Hood will win. I’m just highly skeptical he’ll do worse than Espy considering Hood has a long history of performing exceptionally well. It’s not hard at all to see him getting 47% or better

Both primaries were contested, sure Hood didn't face any ''serious'' challengers but has was not unoposed either (he only won 69% of the primary vote) and you had plenty of activity on the D side too (including for downballot offices). And no, it's not absurd to compare primaries turnout, especially when you have a open primary system, for example just look at the last year OH gov race which was considered by many people as a ''D flip'' but if these people had looked at primary numbers they would have seen that the D base is now smaller than the R one and that thus Cordray was the underdog.

 

[MT Treasurer]

KY: Bevin +2-4
MS: Reeves +1-3 (this one could really go either way, though)
LA: JBE +13-15

MS and KY are both competitive despite MUHHHHHH piloruzation, Racist KY hicks, and "inelastic" Deep South.

[Gracile]

KY:

Bevin (R) 51%
Beshear (D) 45%

LA

Jungle:

Edwards (D) 47%
Abraham (R) 34%
Rispone (R) 11%

Runoff:

Edwards (D) 52%
Abraham (R) 48%

MS

Reeves (R) 55%
Hood (D) 44%

[Dr. MB]

Why is everyone forgetting my man Bill Waller?

[Calthrina950]

Why is everyone forgetting my man Bill Waller?

Probably because Waller is not going to win the runoff, barring an upset. If he did, I think he would be in a stronger position against Hood than Reeves, given his more moderate and populist economic views.

As for my predictions:

Kentucky:

Bevin (R)-53%
Beshear (D)-47%

Louisiana (Runoff):

Edwards (D)-52%
Abraham (R)-48%

Mississippi:

Reeves (R)-51%
Hood (D)-48%

I suspect that all three races will be decided by a single-digit margin. Hood will come close, given his previous performances and his high name recognition, but will still fall short because of polarization. Beshear will also come close, due to Bevin's unpopularity as well as his own name recognition and nostalgia for his father, but will fall short, like Hood, due to polarization. Edwards, conversely, will hang on by a narrow margin, since he has strong enough approval ratings, is an incumbent, and is facing a relatively weak opponent. Polarization of course, is why it will be close.

[Calthrina950]

I suspect that all three races will be decided by a single-digit margin. Hood will come close, given his previous performances and his high name recognition, but will still fall short because of polarization. Beshear will also come close, due to Bevin's unpopularity as well as his own name recognition and nostalgia for his father, but will fall short, like Hood, due to polarization. Edwards, conversely, will hang on by a narrow margin, since he has strong enough approval ratings, is an incumbent, and is facing a relatively weak opponent. Polarization of course, is why it will be close.

Is this parody?

More like emphasizing the point. Of course, there are other factors at work, but polarization will certainly make it a tough row for Democrats to cut through.

[Xing]

Kentucky:
Bevin - 52%
Beshear - 44%

Louisiana:
Edwards - 53%
Abraham - 47%

Mississippi
Reeves - 54%
Hood - 44%

[LiberalDem19]

Bevin 55
Beshear 45


Abraham 52
Edwards 48


Reeves 58
Hood 42


Kentucky: Bevin's unpopular, sure, but so is McConnell and they still vote for him by wide margins in Kentucky because he's the Republican.

Louisiana: Edwards won with 56% of the vote last time against an absolute sleezeball creep. Abraham is not anywhere close to offensive as this Vitter guy was. I have Louisiana flipping.

Mississippi isn't gonna be close because white Mississippians are, like, 80% GOP. Hood's jump from AG to Governor might be harder than people think.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

KY
✓ Bevin (R, inc.): 56.2%
Beshear (D): 42.7%


LA
Bel Edwards (D, inc.): 48.6%
Abram (R): 39.5%

✓ Bel Edwards (D, inc.): 52.6%
Abram (R): 47.4%


MS
✓ Hood (D): 49.222%
Reeves (R): 49.198%

[morgieb]

KY:

Bevin 49% / Beshear 46%

MS:

Reeves 52% / Hood 48%

LA (runoff):

Edwards 53% / Abraham 47%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

KY: Beshear 48%/Beavin 47%

LA (runoff): Edward 54%/Abraham 46%

MS: Reeves 53%/Hood 46%

[MT Treasurer]

More like emphasizing the point. Of course, there are other factors at work, but polarization will certainly make it a tough row for Democrats to cut through.

Polarization is so unbelievably strong that Larry Hogan can win by double digits in a Democratic tsunami in one of the most Democratic and "inelastic" states in the country and a Democrat can win a federal race in a Trump +42 state?