August Gubernatorial Predictions

[Calthrina950]

Why is everyone forgetting my man Bill Waller?

Probably because Waller is not going to win the runoff, barring an upset. If he did, I think he would be in a stronger position against Hood than Reeves, given his more moderate and populist economic views.

As for my predictions:

Kentucky:

Bevin (R)-53%
Beshear (D)-47%

Louisiana (Runoff):

Edwards (D)-52%
Abraham (R)-48%

Mississippi:

Reeves (R)-51%
Hood (D)-48%

I suspect that all three races will be decided by a single-digit margin. Hood will come close, given his previous performances and his high name recognition, but will still fall short because of polarization. Beshear will also come close, due to Bevin's unpopularity as well as his own name recognition and nostalgia for his father, but will fall short, like Hood, due to polarization. Edwards, conversely, will hang on by a narrow margin, since he has strong enough approval ratings, is an incumbent, and is facing a relatively weak opponent. Polarization of course, is why it will be close.

[Calthrina950]

I suspect that all three races will be decided by a single-digit margin. Hood will come close, given his previous performances and his high name recognition, but will still fall short because of polarization. Beshear will also come close, due to Bevin's unpopularity as well as his own name recognition and nostalgia for his father, but will fall short, like Hood, due to polarization. Edwards, conversely, will hang on by a narrow margin, since he has strong enough approval ratings, is an incumbent, and is facing a relatively weak opponent. Polarization of course, is why it will be close.

Is this parody?

More like emphasizing the point. Of course, there are other factors at work, but polarization will certainly make it a tough row for Democrats to cut through.

[Calthrina950]

More like emphasizing the point. Of course, there are other factors at work, but polarization will certainly make it a tough row for Democrats to cut through.

Polarization is so unbelievably strong that Larry Hogan can win by double digits in a Democratic tsunami in one of the most Democratic and "inelastic" states in the country and a Democrat can win a federal race in a Trump +42 state?

Polarization isn't the "end all, be all", but it has certainly made it more difficult for Democrats and Republicans alike to win on territory hostile to their party. Just look at the three Democratic Senators in strong Trump states who were defeated last year, in that same "wave" environment. And I've made clear that I believe Edwards will win reelection, but he will do worse than in 2015. Abraham is not a strong opponent, but he doesn't have the same kind of ethical or political baggage that Vitter did. And Mississippi is notorious for its racial polarization, and a gubernatorial race is quite different from an AG one.