KY-Garin-Hart-Yang Research (Beshear internal): Beshear 48, Bevin 39

[ON Progressive]

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/08/26/kentucky-governor-race-andy-beshear-internal-poll-shows-lead-over-matt-bevin/2121744001/

Andy Beshear (D) 48
Matt Bevin (R-inc) 39
John Hicks (L) 6

[MT Treasurer]

They are the guys who had Bayh up by 20 points in 2016 and Bredesen up by double digits in 2018. Can a legitimate pollster please poll this race?

[TML]

On one hand, Beshear's advantage in this poll is greater than Conway's advantage in polls taking during this timeframe in 2015.

On the other hand, Beshear's overall support percentage is below 50%, which means he is far from safe.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

They are the guys who had Bayh up by 20 points in 2016 and Bredesen up by double digits in 2018. Can a legitimate pollster please poll this race?

So you're saying Beshear would be lucky to hit 40% if this pollster is any indication

[Bidenworth2020]

They are the guys who had Bayh up by 20 points in 2016 and Bredesen up by double digits in 2018. Can a legitimate pollster please poll this race?

So you're saying Beshear would be lucky to hit 40% if this pollster is any indication

Jim Gray got 42% against a far more popular incumbent in a federal race on the same ballot as Hillary, all while being gay. Stop the trolling.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The same blue avatars say Trump can win at he is stuck at 47% in polls

[MT Treasurer]

They are the guys who had Bayh up by 20 points in 2016 and Bredesen up by double digits in 2018. Can a legitimate pollster please poll this race?

So you're saying Beshear would be lucky to hit 40% if this pollster is any indication

Tbf, Bredesen and Bayh were almost certainly ahead when they announced their candidacy, but probably not by those margins. A poll from a non-partisan pollster would definitely be nice.

(I think this race is a Tossup, FWIW)

[538Electoral]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

[Politician]

Worth noting that in TN/WV in 2018, polls overestimated Democrats by 6 points, meaning this race is still a tossup and not Lean R.

[Bidenworth2020]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

[Xing]

Worth noting that in TN/WV in 2018, polls overestimated Democrats by 6 points, meaning this race is still a tossup and not Lean R.

Polls in late October/early November overestimated Democrats by 6. If a public poll finds Beshear ahead by 9 in October, that's a different story, but in August, Bredesen was still ahead. Plus, Kentucky polls have more consistently overestimated Democrats.

[ON Progressive]

Worth noting that in TN/WV in 2018, polls overestimated Democrats by 6 points, meaning this race is still a tossup and not Lean R.

Polls in late October/early November overestimated Democrats by 6. If a public poll finds Beshear ahead by 9 in October, that's a different story, but in August, Bredesen was still ahead. Plus, Kentucky polls have more consistently overestimated Democrats.

The thing is with polls in Kentucky is that the topline Dem percentage tends to be accurate. Grimes was polling at 42% in 2014 KY-Sen, she got 41%. Conway was polling at 43% in 2015 KY-Gov, he got 43%.

Also, there have been times where polls were fine in Kentucky: 2016 Kentucky Senate polls actually slightly underestimated Gray, for example.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

[Bidenworth2020]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

Hey, there are Democrats who support Gabbard.

[DINGO Joe]

On one hand, Beshear's advantage in this poll is greater than Conway's advantage in polls taking during this timeframe in 2015.

On the other hand, Beshear's overall support percentage is below 50%, which means he is far from safe.

Well, there's good reason to believe the L is going to get an above average number of Bevin hater votes this time.

[IceSpear]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

A literal pedophile got 651,972 votes when he was the only thing on the entire ballot to vote for.

[Xing]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

Remember that election we had in 2016?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Beshear is ahead by 9 to 15 in 3 recent polls, yet people insist Bevin will win.

[Politician]

Beshear is ahead by 9 to 15 in 3 recent polls, yet people insist Bevin will win.

MUH CONWAY

[IceSpear]

Beshear is ahead by 9 to 15 in 3 recent polls Democratic internals, yet people insist Bevin will win.

Indeed.

[Pandaguineapig]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

A literal pedophile got 651,972 votes when he was the only thing on the entire ballot to vote for.

Democrats also elected Ellison and Re-elected Menendez last year, it's called partisanship

[Bidenworth2020]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

A literal pedophile got 651,972 votes when he was the only thing on the entire ballot to vote for.

Democrats also elected Ellison and Re-elected Menendez last year, it's called partisanship

Pedofile=\= people who were exonerated after an investigation

[pbrower2a]

The race is definitely close. We'll just have to wait and see. I hope Bevin edges it out, But I wouldn't be surprised if Beshear wins by several points.

You support Bevin? Lol

Republicans exist dude

I know, just a shock to the system that people could support such a repugnant candidate who is so clearly the worst of the options.

Trump is a prime example.

I have seen such posters as "Trump 2020 -- Make Liberals Cry Again"... there are people who see liberals as unsympathetically as I might see a fascist. There really are people whose idea of good politics is that some Other Side gets hurt. I see that as short-sighted as possible. Hurt enough people long enough and you turn moderates into extremists and fifth-columnists. I have made the statement that I would rather swear fealty to the Emperor of Japan than to some American fascist dictator. I could never be loyal to torture chambers and concentration camps.

If you recall I was consoling Romney voters after Obama was re-elected. Maybe Obama is not the dangerous radical that you think he is, and maybe Romney would have won against someone not as adept a politician as Obama. 2016 might be Romney's turn. When Trump goes down to defeat I promise to tone down my partisanship... and I will probably tell Republicans that their next effective President is going to behave far more like Obama than like Trump and have a conservative foreign policy -- like Obama.

Might be, might be, might be. Unless it has something to do with his wife's health, Romney did not run for the Presidency and we now have Donald Trump, who eggs on supporters to ridicule liberals. We liberals have been around for a long time, and while our agendas may have changed, our mentality is still around. It exists for good reason -- that life is more than economic gain, sybaritic excess, and raw power, objectives that most of us cannot enjoy in a prosperous but inequitable society. Most of us would be wise to find ways of finding happiness on modest incomes; "luxury" is waste; raw power does more harm through its unaccountable use than it has ever achieved.

Donald Trump is pure vice as a leader as well as as a person, and it would matter little what his stated ideology is. His shallow narcissism is a nightmare. 

Matt Bevin, I understand, is awful. If any state has people in need, it is Kentucky. The state has multitudes with medical problems that include opioid addiction and heavy use of cancerweed products. (Kentuckians are the heaviest smokers in America, and that implies a big commitment of public resources in public health. Contrast Utah, where the state government can spend its tax revenues on other things more enjoyable than treatment of lung cancer. If I had to choose between living in Utah and Kentucky I would choose Utah -- and I am not a Mormon.  Then again, I don't smoke, so even at my age I am in reasonably good shape to do a 20-mile hike. I might be slow, but I would make it.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Beshear is ahead by 9 to 15 in 3 recent polls, yet people insist Bevin will win.

MUH CONWAY

MUH POLARIZATION!