Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[PSOL]

Pellegrini being PM seems like the least bad option here compared to Fico. It would ensure a nominally social democratic government without any clowns in government.

[Estrella]

ta-da!

[Estrella]

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

what's up with the town that voted LSNS?

[Estrella]

what's up with the town that voted LSNS?

A tiny, run-down village called Hrlica (check the Streetview) with 53 inhabitants. ĽSNS won 42% (14 votes), followed by Smer (30%, 10 votes) and Hlas (12%, 4 votes). Sme rodina got 2 and KDH, Republika and Communists one each.

Nearby there are also equally tiny villages won by Republika (Lukovištia, 28% and 30 votes), SaS (Hostišovce, 28% and 18 votes), SNS (Španie Pole, 28% and 11 votes), Sme rodina (Sása, 55% and 18 votes), a PS-KDH tie (Ratkovská Lehota, 18% and 6 votes each) and MF (Padarovce, 30% and 19 votes).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

lmao, per your keys there's some village that voted 88% for Sme Rodina? Is it just a hideaway for Boris's girlfriends?

[Estrella]

Did anyone win 100% in some random tiny village?

Not that I know of. Maybe it happened in 2012 with some tiny northeastern village voting 100% Smer, but I can't find easily searchable municipal data for that election.

lmao, per your keys there's some village that voted 88% for Sme Rodina? Is it just a hideaway for Boris's girlfriends?

It's Sútor (I don't know if y'all love Streetviewing random places as much as I do, but I'm putting it here anyway). It's not even that small - that 88% is 209 votes.


I have no idea what happened there... wait a second (opens the Wikipedia article on Roma in Slovakia, says "of course")


But that's the case only in some places. There must be something in the water in Rožňava, Revúca and Rimavská Sobota districts, where all the villages in this post (and the previous one!) are in.

Brdárka, the best result for PS anywhere in the country (52% = 11 votes)


Markuška, the best result for Hlas (56% = 40 votes)


Leváre, the best result for Szövetség (93% = 51 votes)


Kesovce, a better result for SaS than anywhere in Bratislava (26% = 12 votes). Princíp is the party of Mikuláš "Baron von VAT/Baron von Service Cow" Vareha. And, of course, lol Pirates, who did bizarrely well in many random tiny villages in this region.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

(I don't know if y'all love Streetviewing random places as much as I do, but I'm putting it here anyway).

I certainly enjoy it!

[Estrella]

As for SNS: when you are led by clowns, expect them to do silly things.

Clowns Realize That Silly Actions Have Silly Consequences

Andrej Danko and his list were originally supposed to be just an elevator for the "national forces" to get into parliament, but in the end it seems that politicians like Tomáš Taraba, Rudolf Huliak and Martina Šimkovičová pulled Andrej Danko into parliament. After an election in which only one member of the party - its chairman Danko - made it into the SNS's smallest ten-member parliamentary caucus, the SNS will hold an extraordinary congress in Bratislava on Saturday.

Although Danko has managed to bring the SNS back to parliament after four years with the hope of forming a "pro-national government" with Smer, due to the significant failure of his own party's candidates, his party may in the extreme case be in danger that Fico may not need it at all when forming a coalition. In fact, the ten deputies elected for the SNS come from as many as four different parties, with which the Smer boss could theoretically eventually reach an agreement on his own - without Danko.

"There is a certain uncertainty here," says Zdenko Čambal, deputy chairman of the SNS and mayor of Holíč, of the election result. He also ran for election from a high sixth place, but thanks to preferential votes he was ousted by candidates from outside the SNS structures.

[RGM2609]

Would any of the 4 "SNS"es pose a particular issue for the looming Fico regime or are they eager to hand out their support?

Also I love streetviewing random places! I'm gonna guess OLANO's best result was in a Roma ghetto, and KDH's in an isolated Catholic mountain village?

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

Estrella, what are your sources? This is not looking like volbysr.sk

[Estrella]

Take a look at these results from last time round:

Jelšava (had a mine and an army base, both closed) OĽANO 32%, Smer 20%, ĽSNS 16%
Cinobaňa ("Tin Mine") Smer 26%, OĽANO 22%, ĽSNS 17%
Sirk (had ironworks that closed back in early 1900s) Smer 32%, ĽSNS 25%, OĽANO 19%
Rimavská Baňa ("Rimava Mine") ĽSNS 25%, Smer 23%, OĽANO 22%
Magnezitovce ("Magnesiteville") Smer 33%, ĽSNS 26%, Sme rodina 9%

Jelšava: OĽANO 31%, Smer 25% Hlas 15%, PS 6% ... Republika 3%, ĽSNS 2%
Cinobaňa: Smer 32%, Hlas 20%, Republika 9%, OĽANO 8%, PS 8%, SNS 8% ... ĽSNS 2%
Sirk: OĽANO 32%, Smer 22%, Hlas 18%, Republika 8%, SNS 6% ... ĽSNS 2%
Rimavská Baňa: Smer 32%, Hlas 18%, Republika 13%, OĽANO 8% ... ĽSNS 2%
Magnezitovce: Smer 33%, Hlas 23%, OĽANO 19%, Republika 9% ... ĽSNS 2%

Here we have one part of the explanation for Republika's failure and Hlas' success. Banská Bystrica, the best region for ĽSNS, is now the best region for Hlas and one where Republika fell the hardest compared to ĽSNS' 2020 result. Of course this is partly because both Kotleba and Pellegrini are from Banská Bystrica (indeed, the Banská Bystrica district is the only one where Hlas won), but it seems that even though smaller parts of ĽSNS electorate went to Republika, Smer and OĽANO, the bulk either stayed home or switched to Hlas.

[Estrella]

Estrella, what are your sources? This is not looking like volbysr.sk

Yeah, the website of our dearest Statistical Office really sucks. The only thing it's good for is downloading the excels/csvs I had to stitch together to make the maps. I've used this and this - the former displays the results better, the latter has a clickable map (only districts though), a list of MPs and preference votes.

Would any of the 4 "SNS"es pose a particular issue for the looming Fico regime or are they eager to hand out their support?

Good question, but even Fico said things that were understood as saying he'd prefer a coalition with KDH to one with SNS, so apparently even he doesn't think much of them. Taraba's people (Život/Life) are reliable - they even had an informal confidence and supply agreement with Heger towards the end of his government - but the six National Coalition and indie MPs are extremists who really should've run with ĽSNS: not even because of politics, because SNS and Život are hardly more moderate, but because they're loose cannons who I don't trust to take their role seriously in the slightest.

Also I love streetviewing random places! I'm gonna guess OLANO's best result was in a Roma ghetto, and KDH's in an isolated Catholic mountain village?

OĽANO won over 90% in three municipalities:
- Lomnička (92.1%), a large village of some 3500 people, quasi-exclusively Romani, kinda shabby but honestly not much more than gadjo villages in these parts of the world.
- Jurské (91.7%), a very similar village just across the mountain from Lomnička. Smaller (about 1000 people), also quasi-exclusively Roma but a bit better looking.
- Luníx IX (91.0%), ugh. It's been cleaned up (the worst photos on the internet are from like 15-20 years ago), but still probably the worst place to live in Slovakia. The sort of place Eurotrip was set in (or Hostel, which was actually pretty funny, alas not on purpose). Jokes aside, what happened there was a genuine social catastrophe. It was built during the Communist regime as a special-purpose district under the ABC concept (armáda, bezpečnosť, Cigáni - army, police, Gypsies) and from the 90s onwards the city of Košice used it as a dumping ground for problem tenants. The place became a literal trash dump, many of the tower blocks were completely destroyed by vandals and many of its inhabitants turned to drugs or violent crime. It has improved somewhat in the past few years, both because the city and the government finally realized something needs to be done about it, but also thanks to having a genuinely competent mayor.

KDH's best results were specifically isolated Catholic mountain villages in the Orava region. I'll talk a bit more about them in the next post

[Storr]

The madlad did it:

"Pellegrini asked Fico for the post of prime minister"

"PS offered Pellegrini the post of prime minister."

Well, I suppose it was worth a shot on Pelle's part lol:

"Robert Fico, resolutely refused to give the leader of Hlas, Peter Pellegrini, the post of prime minister

[Estrella]

Kysuce and Orava. Two very similar regions in the north of Slovakia. Kysuce has a river called Kysuca, thick forests, deep valleys between steep mountains, fog, lots of snow, lots of sheep, ski resorts, fog, a few small industrial towns and many large villages, fog, churches that are full every Sunday, more fog and a huge astronomical clock carved out of wood. Orava has a river called Orava, thick forests, shallow valleys high up on a mountain plateau, rain, lots of snow, lots of sheep, ski resorts, peat bogs, rain, a few small industrial towns and many large villages, rain, a village called Klin with a Christ the Redeemer statue called Rio de Klin, churches that are full every Sunday, more rain and Gorals.

Kysuce and Orava are pretty close, both culturally and geographically. When it comes to politics though, they're complete opposites. Kysuce has been the stronghold of Vladimír Mečiar, Ján Slota, Robert Fico and Marian Kotleba for as long as anyone remembers. In many villages, Smer, SNS and ĽSNS put together won 50-60% even in the catastrophic 2020 election. In Orava, on the other hand, Smer (and HZDS before it) gets the sort of subterranean numbers otherwise seen only in downtown Bratislava, while KDH and occasionally other centre-right parties sweep all before them.

After the 2017 local elections, Denník N published a fascinating deep dive titled Kysuce and Orava are two different worlds. If anything, it's even more true now. I can't recommend it enough - Google Translate should do fine.

Here are some election results (and Streetviews ) from upland Kysuce and Orava villages along with two instructive snippets from that article.

Kysuce

Skalité: Smer 38%, Hlas 27%, PS 8%, KDH 6%, SNS 6%, Republika 5%, OĽANO 4%

Turzovka: Smer 39%, Hlas 21%, PS 10%, Republika 7%, SNS 7%, OĽANO 5%, KDH 4%

Zborov nad Bystricou: Smer 45%, Hlas 18%, Republika 8%, SNS 7%, PS 6%, KDH 5%

Radôstka: Smer 54%, Hlas 12%, SNS 7%, Republika 6%, PS 6%, OĽANO 5%, KDH 5%

Lodno:


"Everyone in the village is of one faith. "There is not a single Lutheran here," says the mayor. She recalls the 1990s, when Lodno was announced on television as one of the two villages where Mečiar had the most votes in Slovakia. According to the mayor, it was more than 90 percent. Local women, she says, used to hang photos of Mečiar in their kitchens."

Orava

Zubrohlava: KDH 25%, Smer 22%, Hlas 12%, PS 11%, OĽANO 7%, SNS 7%

Mútne: KDH 32%, Smer 20%, Hlas 12%, SNS 12%, OĽANO 7%, Republika 6%, PS 5%

Sihelné: KDH 38%, Smer 17%, OĽANO 11%, PS 6%, SNS 5%, Republika 3%

Lomná: KDH 43%, Smer 14%, Hlas 12%, OĽANO 7%, SNS 7%, PS 5%, Demokrati 4%

Krušetnica:


"One anecdote from Orava by way of introduction: when Mečiar won in Krušetnica in the 1990s (like he did in the vast majority of villages), the parish priest banned singing in the church for a few weeks and even stopped ringing the bells. When we asked in Kysuce whether the priests encourage people to vote before the elections, the answer was "unlike in Orava, they wouldn't dare to do that here".

[Mike88]

The madlad did it:

"Pellegrini asked Fico for the post of prime minister"

"PS offered Pellegrini the post of prime minister."

Well, I suppose it was worth a shot on Pelle's part lol:

"Robert Fico, resolutely refused to give the leader of Hlas, Peter Pellegrini, the post of prime minister

Any updates on who Pellegrini will give the rose?

[Estrella]

The madlad did it:

"Pellegrini asked Fico for the post of prime minister"

"PS offered Pellegrini the post of prime minister."

Well, I suppose it was worth a shot on Pelle's part lol:

"Robert Fico, resolutely refused to give the leader of Hlas, Peter Pellegrini, the post of prime minister

Any updates on who Pellegrini will give the rose?

Smer looks more likely, but all we have is speculation. Few politicians made public statements and there haven't even been any leaks. What we do know is that KDH rejected Smer so many times and in so strong terms that I'm almost starting to believe them, SaS tried to pressure PS to abandon its red line of not giving Hlas the Ministry of Interior (responsible for NAKA and therefore corruption investigations), SNS said they'd support any government led by Fico even if they aren't a part of it and a few days ago Danko complained that the negotations are slow because Hlas keeps talking both with Smer and PS.

[RGM2609]

Where exactly is PS's, erm, self-interest in bending over backwards so much for Smer-2? Do they want to be in government so badly or just making sure they aren't blamed for Fico's return?

[Estrella]

Where exactly is PS's, erm, self-interest in bending over backwards so much for Smer-2? Do they want to be in government so badly or just making sure they aren't blamed for Fico's return?

The former if it works out, the latter if it doesn’t. But Šimečka strikes me as a serious, policy-focused type and I think he genuinely wouldn’t mind being in government while not being PM.

[Estrella]

And it’s been decided: Smer-Hlas-SNS.

Fico as PM, Pellegrini as speaker of parliament. Hlas has decided who they’ll govern with.

Of course we’re far from an official coalition agreement: there’s still plenty of negotiations to be done about policies, ministries, state secretaries, patronage appointments etc.

Edit: Pellegrini’s ridiculous justification is that PS should have agreed with KDH and SaS first and the three then should’ve come to Hlas with a good enough offer.

[Storr]

Pelle also said he decided to not work with PS and KDH because "cooperating with liberals and conservatives would be full of conflicts". So he decided to cooperate with the mobsters and neo-nazis instead?

Edit: I don't think Pellegrini would be satisfied with being Speaker of the Parliament again. He already previously had that position before becoming Prime Minister. If a Smer-Hlas-SNS government is formed, I'd think it means Pellegrini is running for President in 2024 with Smer backing.

Edit 2.0: Lol. "Pele's statement from 2020 when he was "leaving" the direction [Smer]:
"I can't imagine a joint future in tandem with Roberto Fico. They are two worlds that cannot come together. They are two worlds - the world of the past and the world of the future,"
Pele's statement from June 2022: "I can't imagine participating in a government in which he (Fico) would also sit""

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1711788724667748807?s=20

[Mike88]

This means that Smer will be kicked out from the European Socialists, right?

[RGM2609]

It is almost amazing that anything else was expected from Fico's former puppet PM. Wouldn't surprise me if there are certain... "affairs" from their last stint in government that made Pellegrini more receptive to Fico's offer.

Estrella, what do you think will happen to the ragtag group of fascists, also known as the SNS, now? Will they get posts in government or even stick together?

[Ex-Assemblyman Steelers]

This means that Smer will be kicked out from the European Socialists, right?

Probably not, they need their seats in next year EP election, and they already had chance for that in the Fico I cabinet.

[Logical]

What a cuck. He could've been PM, he could've secured a nice sinecure in Brussels when his political career is over, he could've asked for a unicorn and receive it. Instead he chose to be Fico's flunkie.