Slovak Elections and Politics | Fico the Fourth 🇸🇰

[PSOL]

Ideally a new set of elections or just a caretaker government for the next few years would be ideal. I personally dislike Fico.

[Estrella]

If Fico wins he'll probably become my favorite world leader ngl

Same applies to post-communism with 'Ndrangheta characteristics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Same applies to post-communism with 'Ndrangheta characteristics.

You know, I was trying to work out what an accurate description for Smer might be, and that just about nails it. Excellent.

[VPH]

For somebody with familiarity with Slovak politics, what are the ideological alignments and voter bases of HLAS and KDH and OLANO?

[Red Velvet]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1708415328739373109
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1708411430054007144
SMER and HLAS have a combined 69 seats, growing +31 from last election.

76 needed for a majority. Media expects a coalition with conservative SNS for government.

People here rooting against the left-wing parties in Eastern Europe is hilarious, but not really unexpected at all.

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/slovak-president-says-will-ask-populists-on-monday-to-form-govt-69062636

"Slovak President Says Will Ask Populists On Monday To Form Govt"

Slovak President Zuzana Caputova said Sunday she will formally ask the populist Smer-SD party of ex-premier Robert Fico to form a new government on Monday

[PSOL]

Same applies to post-communism with 'Ndrangheta characteristics.

You know, I was trying to work out what an accurate description for Smer might be, and that just about nails it. Excellent.

Smer is most comparable to the Portuguese Socialists and the Walloon PS in both actions and demographics. The elderly kulaks in Smer aren’t exactly the same social force in charge as they were during the communist period.

[Estrella]

Any new information/theories as to why SNS is in and Republika is out? And OLANO also won in...Kosice's surroundings lol.

Not much so far, but looking at the results (especially how decently SNS did in the cities), I'm wondering if there were last-minute SNS → Smer switchers among older people and Republika → SNS switchers among middle-aged/younger ones. That would explain Smer's overperformance, SNS staying put and the failure of Republika. I'm also curious if there could have been some populist but not very ideological voters who went Republika → Hlas and Sme rodina → Hlas. I don't think many people went Republika → Smer: the former polled better with young people but the latter is absolutely toxic with anyone younger than like 50-60, regardless of ideology.

For somebody with familiarity with Slovak politics, what are the ideological alignments and voter bases of HLAS and KDH and OLANO?

KDH: very religious areas in the north of the country and establishment conservatives. Some of the latter might have gone to the Democrats: this is the first election in ages that KDH did significantly worse than national average in Bratislava.

Hlas: all over the place, basically the most normie party. Probably would prefer a Fico government to a PS one but many would not, somewhat socially conservative but many are not, pro-EU and NATO but many are not.

OĽANO: anti-Smer populists and conservatives, socially conservative but not nationalist or pro-Russian, probably middle-aged and younger. Their results in the East seemed really weird at first, but then it suddenly clicked.





It went under the radar because Slovak media doesn't give a sh/t about Roma, but apparently OĽANO did a lot of outreach to Romani communities and put multiple Romani candidates on the list. Out of curiosity I downloaded the results by municipality (because none of the results pages have them, for some reason) and looked up Žehra, the site of one of the biggest Roma slums in Slovakia. OĽANO won, er...

[crals]

People here rooting against the left-wing parties in Eastern Europe is hilarious, but not really unexpected at all.

Many left-wing parties in Eastern Europe are awful, so that shouldn't be unexpected indeed.

[MaxQue]

People here rooting against the left-wing parties in Eastern Europe is hilarious, but not really unexpected at all.

There is nothing left-wing about corruption (which is redistribution of wealth from all to the friends of Fico, in this case).

[Logical]

It went under the radar because Slovak media doesn't give a sh/t about Roma, but apparently OĽANO did a lot of outreach to Romani communities and put multiple Romani candidates on the list. Out of curiosity I downloaded the results by municipality (because none of the results pages have them, for some reason) and looked up Žehra, the site of one of the biggest Roma slums in Slovakia. OĽANO won, er...

Truly the party for Ordinary People, Independent Personalities and Friends (Roma).

[VPH]

It went under the radar because Slovak media doesn't give a sh/t about Roma, but apparently OĽANO did a lot of outreach to Romani communities and put multiple Romani candidates on the list. Out of curiosity I downloaded the results by municipality (because none of the results pages have them, for some reason) and looked up Žehra, the site of one of the biggest Roma slums in Slovakia. OĽANO won, er...

Truly the party for Ordinary People, Independent Personalities and Friends (Roma).

Woah, this is fascinating!

[Storr]

František Mikloško second highest vote getter for KDH, behind the party chairman, has said this (bolding added for emphasis):

"According to Mikloško, a government with Smer would be suicide for the KDH. And that's also because KDH would be replaceable in the coalition. "If Robert Fico and I went to the government, the moment we wanted to resist something, they would tell us: Get out. And he will take SNS, which will be very happy to go," he claims.

On the contrary, according to him, KDH could have a strong position in the government with PS, Hlas and SaS. According to him, Christian Democrats are irreplaceable there, because without them the government could not be formed.

Mikloško thinks that PS should offer Hlas the position of prime minister, and that would change the whole game. "If PS is about Slovakia, as they kept saying, I can imagine that they will make this deal.""

[Estrella]

František Mikloško second highest vote getter for KDH, behind the party chairman, has said this (bolding added for emphasis):

"According to Mikloško, a government with Smer would be suicide for the KDH. And that's also because KDH would be replaceable in the coalition. "If Robert Fico and I went to the government, the moment we wanted to resist something, they would tell us: Get out. And he will take SNS, which will be very happy to go," he claims.

On the contrary, according to him, KDH could have a strong position in the government with PS, Hlas and SaS. According to him, Christian Democrats are irreplaceable there, because without them the government could not be formed.

Mikloško thinks that PS should offer Hlas the position of prime minister, and that would change the whole game. "If PS is about Slovakia, as they kept saying, I can imagine that they will make this deal.""

This has all the more weight because Mikloško is a kind of respected elder statesman for the party. If there's one good thing I can say about KDH, it's that they've never been run top-down by the leader of the day and always talked things out in the party council.

A Smer+Hlas+SNS coalition is still the most straightforward option. It might seem strange that the leader of the third biggest party could become PM, but PS+Hlas+KDH+SaS with Pellegrini in the driver's seat would be a reasonable compromise, at least adjusted for the kind of country Slovakia is. It should satisfy the "middle Slovakia" that wants a more social government led by an experienced figure (Pellegrini is still the second most popular politician in the country ahead of Fico thanks to his reputation as a no-nonsense getting-things-done moderate) and is worried both about the return of Fico and PS' socially liberal policies. There's a self-interest argument for PS (it's the most likely way they could enter government this term), but also for Pellegrini: it would be a lot easier to become PM in a coalition with Šimečka than with Fico.

[rob in cal]

What policy ideas does SMER have that get it labeled as Populist or Nationalist?

[Oryxslayer]

What policy ideas does SMER have that get it labeled as Populist or Nationalist?

As usual, supranational EU tags obscure local intricacies, and leads to people legitimatly behaving like this (the post is sarcasm):

https://twitter.com/nikicaga/status/1708495700470718480?t=TlvfSTSvauvFkbp9xnQh7Q...

For reference:

[RGM2609]

Honestly, the "good" news is that Fico doesn't hold any great belief in anything other than Fico and the enrichment of himself and his inner circle. He just seems to have (correctly) calculated that being a Russian asskisser was the best way back to power. He can just as easily, erm, recalculate his opinions.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Same applies to post-communism with 'Ndrangheta characteristics.

You know, I was trying to work out what an accurate description for Smer might be, and that just about nails it. Excellent.

I prefer Red-Brown Mafia but that's really good.

[Red Velvet]

What policy ideas does SMER have that get it labeled as Populist or Nationalist?

They’re economically leftist and the average social-democratic but the kind not approved by the West:

- Against Ukraine support
- Socially Conservative (anti-LBGT; anti-Immigration)
- Euroskeptic; Anti-Western; Pro-Russia
- Sides with Orbán on the EU internal matters

Basically the party leader Fico is a former Communist who after Cold War ended had to rebrand himself as a Social Democrat.

The leader and party has already been in power across the years and no one cared, but people are all losing their minds about these results because of the Ukraine War context. Slovak leader Fico has already blamed “Ukrainian Nazis and Fascists” for triggering the Russian War.

They already said they will cut all aid to Ukraine, which would make Slovakia the 1st European country to abandon their “Pro-Ukraine” position since the war started. Places like Hungary and Turkey do not count because they never supported Ukraine anyway.

ETA: Video of Fico talking about the matter:

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1708456844044226994

https://twitter.com/DD_Geopolitics/status/1708505913060216999

https://twitter.com/21WIRE/status/1708482847374495939

[Estrella]

ahahahahahaha this is amazing

Stráne pod Tatrami (Kežmarok district, population 1900, 94.6% Romani)



Kecerovce (Košice-okolie district, population 3500, 97.8% Romani)



Lomnička (Stará Ľubovňa district, population 3000, 100% Romani)



Luník IX, the most infamous slum in Slovakia

[RGM2609]

Did they, erm, use other ways of persuading the Romani community too?

[Estrella]

Did they, erm, use other ways of persuading the Romani community too?

On election night, Smer candidate (and former Police President) Tibor Gašpar alleged there was vote buying somewhere in the east with people being paid €25 for a vote. He didn’t mention a party and Smer is hardly the most reliable source of news about corruption but, er…

[Storr]

This comment I saw on a SME article does make a good point. Despite ending up as the kingmaker in this election, Pellegrini is in a bit of a catch 22:

"Pele doesn't know it yet, but it's already his last election period.
1. He will go with Fico, he has no chance Fico will slowly eat him.
2. He will go with PS, so he will be eaten by his own. [within Hlas]
3. He plays it to pat. So Fico will eat him up [in] early elections"

Fico will no doubt try to take back Hlas' voting base, even while being in government with Pellegrini.  

Edit:

This isn't surprising, but Pellegrini said at a post election debate that he'd accept a deal with Smer where he becomes PM and Fico becomes Speaker of the Parliament.

Obviously whether Fico would be willing to offer such a deal is an open question.

At the same debate, the chairman of KDH Milan Majerský backed up František Mikloško's comments I shared earlier that the party will not enter a coalition with Smer.

Not surprising either, but SaS said it would not join a coalition with OLANO as long as Matovič remains in charge.

[jaichind]

This comment I saw on a SME article does make a good point. Despite ending up as the kingmaker in this election, Pellegrini is in a bit of a catch 22:

"Pele doesn't know it yet, but it's already his last election period.
1. He will go with Fico, he has no chance Fico will slowly eat him.
2. He will go with PS, so he will be eaten by his own. [within Hlas]
3. He plays it to pat. So Fico will eat him up [in] early elections"

Fico will no doubt try to take back Hlas' voting base, even while being in government with Pellegrini. 

What if he makes a deal with PS but demands the PM post as part of that deal?

[jaichind]

https://kyivindependent.com/slovakias-kingmaker-party-politician-suggests-ukraine-may-give-up-territory-for-peace/

"Slovakia's 'kingmaker' party politician says Ukraine must give up territory for peace"

Ukraine will likely have to give up some of the territory occupied by Russia since 2014 to achieve peace, Denisa Saková, deputy head of Slovak Hlas (Voice) party, told Czech Television on Oct. 1.